Carlisle United vs Salford City prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup tie is between two sides 1 division apart, one from the National League and one from League Two. Our model uses league games and earlier cup ties to rate both clubs on the same scale.
Across their last 6 matches, Carlisle recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses. They scored 14 goals and conceded 4. During their last 6 matches, Salford City took 6 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. They scored 13 goals and conceded 5.
This season, both teams scored in 75% of Carlisle games, while 62% had more than 2.5 goals. Salford City recorded 57% and 57%.
Since August 2024 our results include 2 meetings: Carlisle took 1 win, Salford City 0, and 1 finished level. Their most recent meeting was Saturday 3 May 2025, which ended Carlisle 2-2 Salford.
The model rates a Salford City win as most likely at 46%. Its expected goals are 1.22 for Carlisle and 1.62 for Salford City, with Carlisle 28% and the draw 26%.
Our prediction: Carlisle United 1-2 Salford City. At 12.2%, 1-1 is the most likely exact score on its own. Within the result we favor, 1-2 is the most likely score.
Stats: Carlisle v Salford City
| Per game |  Carlisle |  Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.2 | 4.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Carlisle | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.79 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.44 | 1.07 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.1 / 4.5 | 5.8 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Per game | Carlisle | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.25 | 2.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.4 / 5.0 | 4.1 / 6.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Per game | Carlisle | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 8.0 | 8.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Carlisle win | 28% | 5/2 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Salford City win | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Double chance | Carlisle or draw | 54% | 5/6 |
| Salford City or draw | 72% | 2/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Carlisle | 38% | 13/8 |
| Salford City | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 |
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Carlisle and yes | 15% | 6/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Salford City and yes | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Result and goals | Carlisle and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 |
| Salford City and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Carlisle and under 2.5 | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Salford City and under 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Salford City / Salford City | 28% | 5/2 |
| Carlisle / Carlisle | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Salford City | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed lacks UK bookmaker prices for this match because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-up predictions
Carlisle 3-5-2
- Desbois, Adam.GK
- Duru, Leo.MID
- Williams, Joshua.MID
- Nicholson, Bradley.DEF
- Feeney, Morgan.DEF
- Richardson, Kenton.DEF
- Whelan, Callum.MID
- Jenks, Teddy.MID
- Linney, Regan.FWD
- Ajiboye, David.FWD
- Camps, Callum.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct at Altrincham.
Salford City 5-4-1
- Norris, Will.GK
- Odoh, Abraham.DEF
- Garbutt, Luke.DEF
- Aimson, Will.DEF
- Scarr, Dan.DEF
- Oluwo, Adebola.DEF
- Woodburn, Ben.MID
- Bonds, Elliott.MID
- Langstaff, Macaulay.FWD
- Sarpong-Wiredu, Brendan.MID
- Molyneux, Luke.MID
Those players began the match Sat 31 Oct against Exeter.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started in their latest match. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed teams replace these about one hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Carlisle, 16 and Salford City, 15. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Corners and card counts
- Corners expected: 10.4Carlisle 5.3 and Salford City 5.1 compare with league 10.0
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.8).
Form guide
Carlisle United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Altrincham | 4-2 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Harrogate | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Solihull | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Kidderminster | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Aldershot | 3-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Fylde | 2-0 | W |
For scores, Carlisle comes first.
Salford City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Exeter | 2-1 | W |
| Mon 26 Oct | at Walsall | 4-2 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Bristol Rvs | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Crawley Town | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | W |
Read the scores with Salford City first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3 May 2025 | League Two | Carlisle 2-2 Salford | 2-1 | 14 |
| Sat 9 Nov 2024 | League Two | Salford 0-1 Carlisle | 0-0 | 12 |