Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe Wanderers prediction
Our breakdown
This FA Cup tie pits a League Two side against a League One side, 1 division apart. Both clubs sit on a single scale in the model, drawn from earlier cup ties and league games.
Accrington's last 6 matches brought 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses. In that run they scored 12 and conceded 3. Wycombe's last 6 brought 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 10 scored and 9 conceded.
So far this season, 64% of Accrington matches saw both teams score, and 50% went over 2.5 goals; Wycombe's figures are 77% and 54%. Accrington create 1.42 expected goals a game and allow 1.14; Wycombe also create 1.42 but allow 1.35.
With expected goals at 1.10 for Accrington and 1.68 for Wycombe, the model sees a Wycombe win as the most likely outcome at 50% (Accrington 24%, the draw 26%).
We predict: Accrington Stanley 0-1 Wycombe Wanderers. One exact score stands out as the likeliest: 1-1 at 12.1%. Within the result we lean toward, 0-1 comes out on top.
Stats for Accrington v Wycombe
| Per game |  Accrington |  Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 3.8 | 6.2 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.19 / 0.68 | 1.46 / 1.29 |
| Per game | Accrington | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 1.77 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 4.8 | 5.8 / 5.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.42 / 1.14 | 1.42 / 1.35 |
| Per game | Accrington | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.3 | 6.2 / 6.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.63 / 0.87 | 1.35 / 1.19 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Accrington win | 24% | 3/1 |
| Draw | 26% | 3/1 | |
| Wycombe win | 50% | evens | |
| Double chance | Accrington or draw | 50% | evens |
| Wycombe or draw | 76% | 1/3 | |
| Draw no bet | Accrington | 33% | 2/1 |
| Wycombe | 67% | 1/2 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 5/6 |
| No | 45% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Accrington and yes | 12% | 7/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Wycombe and yes | 24% | 10/3 | |
| Result and goals | Accrington and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 |
| Wycombe and over 2.5 | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Accrington and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Wycombe and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Wycombe / Wycombe | 31% | 9/4 |
| Draw / Wycombe | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Accrington / Accrington | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Over 10.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed has no prices from UK bookmakers for this match, because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Accrington 3-4-1-2
- Moulden, Louie.GK
- Love, Donald.MID
- Tutonda, David.MID
- Anderson, Joseph.DEF
- Rawson, Farrend.DEF
- Matthews, Devon.DEF
- Borland, Aidan.MID
- Mols, Stefan.MID
- Henderson, Alex.MID
- Walton, Tyler.FWD
- Warren, Charlie.FWD
Started against Northampton on Sat 31 Oct.
Wycombe 4-2-3-1
- Hazard, Conor.GK
- Grimmer, Jack.DEF
- Harvie, Daniel.DEF
- Boyd-Munce, Caolan.MID
- Taylor, Connor.DEF
- Hagelskjaer, Anders.DEF
- Onyedinma, Fred.MID
- Scowen, Josh.MID
- Wareham, Jayden.FWD
- Woodrow, Cauley.MID
- Mothersille, Malik.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct v Burton Albion.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent match. ESPN's confirmed teams take the place of these once they are named, roughly an hour before kick-off.
Chances for exact scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Accrington, 15 games and Wycombe, 14 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.9 overall, with Accrington 5.0 corners and Wycombe 5.9 corners, and the league at 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected 3.7 (league 3.7).
Form guide
Accrington Stanley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Northampton | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rochdale | 5-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at York | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Gillingham | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Oldham | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Cheltenham | 2-0 | W |
Accrington scores come first.
Wycombe Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Burton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Cambridge | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Notts County | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Luton | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Reading | 2-2 | D |
Wycombe scores come first.