Barnsley vs Aldershot Town prediction
Our breakdown
In the FA Cup, League One meets National League here, with the clubs separated by 2 divisions. The model puts both clubs on a single scale, one built from league games plus earlier cup ties.
Of their last 6 matches, Barnsley lost 4, drew 2 and won 0, with 6 scored and 11 conceded. In their last 6, Aldershot lost 5, drew 0 and won 1, scoring 4 and conceding 11.
Both teams scored in 75% of Barnsley games this season, and 67% of them went over 2.5 goals. Aldershot's figures are 56% and 38%.
The model gives a Barnsley win an 84% chance, the likeliest result, working from expected goals of 0.85 for Aldershot and 3.32 for Barnsley (the draw 11%, Aldershot 6%).
The predicted score is Barnsley 3-0 Aldershot Town.
Stats for Barnsley v Aldershot
| Per game |  Barnsley |  Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 9.8 | 7.0 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Per game | Barnsley | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 16 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.83 | 1.19 |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 19% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 6.8 | 4.8 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Per game | Barnsley | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.83 | 1.38 |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 12% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.7 / 7.7 | 3.8 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.3 | 2.9 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Barnsley win | 84% | 1/5 |
| Draw | 11% | 17/2 | |
| Aldershot win | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Double chance | Barnsley or draw | 94% | 1/16 |
| Aldershot or draw | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw no bet | Barnsley | 94% | 1/14 |
| Aldershot | 6% | 14/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 4/5 |
| No | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 92% | 1/12 |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 2/7 | |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Result and BTTS | Barnsley and yes | 43% | 11/8 |
| Draw and yes | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Aldershot and yes | 4% | 25/1 | |
| Result and goals | Barnsley and over 2.5 | 70% | 4/9 |
| Aldershot and over 2.5 | 4% | 25/1 | |
| Barnsley and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Aldershot and under 2.5 | 2% | 66/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Barnsley / Barnsley | 62% | 8/13 |
| Draw / Barnsley | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 5% | 18/1 | |
| Aldershot / Barnsley | 4% | 25/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 71% | 2/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 61% | 4/6 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match, since football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Barnsley 4-2-3-1
- Slicker, Cieran.GK
- Kay, Arley.DEF
- Larkeche, Ziyad.DEF
- Connell, Luca.MID
- Gale, Sam.DEF
- Shepherd, Jack.DEF
- Yoganathan, Vimal.MID
- Kelly, Patrick.MID
- Ademeyo, Tobi.FWD
- McGeehan, Cameron.MID
- Cleary, Reyes.MID
Sat 31 Oct was the match they started, against Oxford Utd.
Aldershot 4-2-3-1
- Hayes, Nicholas.GK
- Dyce, Tyrese.DEF
- Harfield, Oliver.DEF
- Odusanya, Dominic.MID
- Mohammed-Idris OshilajaDEF
- Stickland, Michael.DEF
- Peart, Brody.MID
- Lawless, Conor.MID
- Abrahams, Tristan.FWD
- Tuma, Basil.MID
- Sandah, Hakeem.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct against Gateshead.
For other clubs, the eleven who started in their latest match, as reported by ESPN. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace this list, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
For Barnsley there are 15 games, and Aldershot, 16 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected 11.8, with Barnsley 5.9 and Aldershot 5.9 against a league average of 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.2, against 3.7 in the league.
Latest form
Barnsley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Oxford | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Reading | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Luton | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cambridge | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Stockport | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Leicester | 1-1 | D |
Barnsley scores come first.
Aldershot Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Gateshead | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Sutton | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wealdstone | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Altrincham | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Carlisle | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Hornchurch | 1-2 | L |
Aldershot scores come first.