AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool prediction
What we make of it
The FA Cup contest puts a National League team against a League One team, with 2 divisions between them. Using league games and earlier cup ties, the model places both clubs on a single scale.
Hornchurh's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 7 scored and 11 conceded. In their last 6, Blackpool recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 12.
So far this season, 44% of Hornchurh games saw both teams score and 69% went over 2.5 goals, while Blackpool's figures are 67% and 58%.
A Blackpool win is the model's likeliest outcome at 73%, with Hornchurh 10% and the draw 17%. Expected goals are 0.80 for Hornchurh and 2.41 for Blackpool.
Score prediction: AFC Hornchurch 0-2 Blackpool.
Stats: Hornchurh v Blackpool
| Per game | Hornchurh |  Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 6.0 | 6.8 / 7.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Per game | Hornchurh | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.62 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 6.1 | 5.5 / 7.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Hornchurh | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.57 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 4.1 | 5.8 / 9.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Hornchurh win | 10% | 9/1 |
| Draw | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Blackpool win | 73% | 4/11 | |
| Double chance | Hornchurh or draw | 27% | 11/4 |
| Blackpool or draw | 90% | 1/9 | |
| Draw no bet | Hornchurh | 12% | 7/1 |
| Blackpool | 88% | 1/7 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | evens |
| No | 49% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Hornchurh and yes | 6% | 16/1 |
| Draw and yes | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Blackpool and yes | 32% | 9/4 | |
| Result and goals | Hornchurh and over 2.5 | 6% | 16/1 |
| Blackpool and over 2.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Hornchurh and under 2.5 | 4% | 25/1 | |
| Blackpool and under 2.5 | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Blackpool / Blackpool | 49% | evens |
| Draw / Blackpool | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Hornchurh / Hornchurh | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 74% | 4/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 64% | 4/7 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 42% | 11/8 |
| Over 4.5 | 26% | 11/4 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match (football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition).
Line-ups we expect
Hornchurh 5-3-2
- Nasta, Arthur.GK
- Weston, Myles.DEF
- Pegrum, Charlie.DEF
- Greenidge, William.DEF
- Dallison-Lisbon, Thomas.DEF
- Edwards, Frankie.DEF
- Sandat, Henry.MID
- Bracking, Miles.MID
- Balanta, Ángelo.FWD
- Loft, Ryan.FWD
- Wraight, Tom.MID
Lineup used Fri 30 Oct at AFC Fylde.
Blackpool 5-3-2
- Peacock-Farrell, Bailey.GK
- Williams, Jordan.DEF
- Coulson, Hayden.DEF
- Ashworth, Zachary.DEF
- Casey, Oliver.DEF
- Lyons, Andy.DEF
- Anderson, Karoy.MID
- Morgan, Albie.MID
- Taylor, Dale.FWD
- Bloxham, Tom.FWD
- Clarkson, Leighton.MID
Lineup used Sun 1 Nov at Sheff Wed.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven players who started in their most recent match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games count: Hornchurh, 16 games; for Blackpool, 14 games. This season's scoring minutes come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 12.2, with Hornchurh 6.3, Blackpool 5.8 and the league at 10.0.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.3 (league 3.8).
Form from recent matches
AFC Hornchurch
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | at Fylde | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Yeovil | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Eastleigh | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Harrogate | 0-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Aldershot | 2-1 | W |
Hornchurh scores come first.
Blackpool
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | at Sheffield Wednesday | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Mansfield | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Milton Keynes Dons | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Cambridge | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Plymouth | 2-4 | L |
Here, Blackpool comes first in the score.