Barnet vs Port Vale prediction

Barnet

15:00Saturday 21 November

Port Vale

League Two
The Hive Stadium is where the game is played.
Not live on UK TV (the Saturday blackout)

1-0predicted score (12%)

49%both teams score

45%over 2.5 goals

1.52-0.95expected goals

50%27%23%

How we see it

Barnet sit 2nd in the League Two table, earning 26 points across 13 games. Port Vale hold 19th place with 15 points from 12 games, 11 points behind.

Across their last 6 matches Barnet recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Across their last 6, Port Vale recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 7.

In this season, 100% of Barnet games saw both teams score, and 77% had more than 2.5 goals; Port Vale's rates were 33% and 17%. In expected goals, Barnet create 1.72 per match and allow 1.30; for Port Vale the figures are 1.30 created and 1.02 allowed.

The model rates a Barnet win as the likeliest outcome at 50%, with the draw at 27% and Port Vale 23%. It bases those figures on expected goals: 1.52 for Barnet, 0.95 for Port Vale.

We predict a 1-0 win for Barnet against Port Vale. Only one exact score is the most likely of them all, 1-1 at 12.9%. Within the outcome we favour, nothing beats 1-0.

Stats for Barnet v Port Vale

Per game	Barnet	Port Vale
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.60	1.40
Goals conceded a game	1.40	1.00
Both teams scored	100%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	20%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Corners won / conceded	8.0 / 3.0	4.8 / 5.8
Yellow cards a game	2.4	1.6
xG for / against	1.83 / 1.27	1.75 / 0.88

Per game	Barnet	Port Vale
Games	13	12
Goals scored a game	2.15	0.83
Goals conceded a game	1.38	1.17
Both teams scored	100%	33%
Over 2.5 goals	77%	17%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Corners won / conceded	6.8 / 4.2	4.8 / 5.1
Yellow cards a game	2.1	1.9
xG for / against	1.72 / 1.30	1.30 / 1.02

Per game	Barnet	Port Vale
Games	7	6
Goals scored a game	2.14	0.33
Goals conceded a game	1.43	1.83
Both teams scored	100%	33%
Over 2.5 goals	86%	17%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	8.1 / 4.3	5.3 / 5.8
Yellow cards a game	1.9	2.0
xG for / against	1.93 / 1.24	0.71 / 1.41

Fair prices for the betting markets


Match result	Barnet win	50%	evens
	Draw	27%	13/5
	Port Vale win	23%	17/5
Double chance	Barnet or draw	77%	3/10
	Port Vale or draw	50%	evens
Draw no bet	Barnet	69%	4/9
	Port Vale	31%	11/5
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	21/20
	No	51%	10/11
Goals	Over 1.5	71%	2/5
	Over 2.5	45%	5/4
	Under 2.5	55%	4/5
	Over 3.5	24%	16/5
Result and BTTS	Barnet and yes	20%	4/1
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Port Vale and yes	10%	9/1
Result and goals	Barnet and over 2.5	28%	13/5
	Port Vale and over 2.5	12%	15/2
	Barnet and under 2.5	22%	18/5
	Port Vale and under 2.5	11%	8/1
Half time / full time	Barnet / Barnet	30%	23/10
	Draw / Barnet	18%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	17%	5/1
	Port Vale / Port Vale	13%	7/1
Corners	Over 9.5	60%	4/6
	Over 10.5	49%	21/20
Cards	Over 3.5	45%	5/4
	Over 4.5	29%	5/2

Match result

Barnet win

50%

evens

Draw

27%

13/5

Port Vale win

23%

17/5

Double chance

Barnet or draw

77%

3/10

Port Vale or draw

50%

evens

Draw no bet

Barnet

69%

4/9

Port Vale

31%

11/5

Both teams to score

Yes

49%

21/20

51%

10/11

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

2/5

Over 2.5

45%

5/4

Under 2.5

55%

4/5

Over 3.5

24%

16/5

Result and BTTS

Barnet and yes

20%

4/1

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Port Vale and yes

10%

9/1

Result and goals

Barnet and over 2.5

28%

13/5

Port Vale and over 2.5

12%

15/2

Barnet and under 2.5

22%

18/5

Port Vale and under 2.5

11%

8/1

Half time / full time

Barnet / Barnet

30%

23/10

Draw / Barnet

18%

9/2

Draw / Draw

17%

5/1

Port Vale / Port Vale

13%

7/1

Corners

Over 9.5

60%

4/6

Over 10.5

49%

21/20

Cards

Over 3.5

45%

5/4

Over 4.5

29%

5/2

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

The line-ups we expect

Barnet 4-3-3

Cox, Matthew.GK
Senior, Adam.DEF
Crichlow-Noble, Romoney.DEF
Gallagher, Oisin.FWD
Collinge, Danny.DEF
Tavares, Nikola.DEF
Comley, Brandon.MID
Ofoborh, Nnamdi.MID
Tshimanga, Kabongo.FWD
Knowles, Tom.MID
Lakin, Charlie.FWD

They started at Crewe on Sat 31 Oct.

Port Vale 3-5-2

Marosi, Marko.GK
Lawrence-Gabriel, Jordan.MID
Headley, Jaheim.MID
Hall, Connor.DEF
Moon, Jasper.DEF
Humphreys, Cameron.DEF
Dempsey, Kyle.MID
Hall, George.MID
Hernández, Onel.FWD
Watters, Max.FWD
Byers, George.MID

They started Sat 31 Oct v Rochdale.

Chances for each correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Barnet goals down the side and Port Vale goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9.2	7.3	3.8	1.2	0.3	0.1
1	12.1	12.9	5.8	1.8	0.4	0.1
2	9.8	9.3	4.4	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	5.0	4.7	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.0
4	1.9	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

When the goals come

Barnet have played 14 games; Port Vale, 13 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected 10.7, with Barnet 6.2 and Port Vale 4.4 (league 9.9).
Yellow cards expected 3.5 (league 3.7).

Latest form

Barnet

Barnet, last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	at Crewe	1-1	D
Tue 27 Oct	v York	3-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	v Oldham	1-1	D
Tue 20 Oct	v Swindon	1-3	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Tranmere	2-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Bristol Rvs	3-1	W

Barnet is listed first in the scores.

Port Vale

Port Vale, last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	v Rochdale	4-2	W
Sat 24 Oct	at York	0-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Gillingham	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Chesterfield	1-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Grimsby	1-0	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Walsall	0-2	L

Port Vale is listed first in the scores.

The League Two table

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22
4	Crewe Alexandra	14	5	7	2	+0	22
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16
18	Oldham Athletic	14	4	3	7	-4	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Northampton Town	13	3	5	5	-1	14