York City vs Walsall prediction
Analysis from our team
Sitting 7th in the League Two table, York City have gathered 20 points across 14 matches. Walsall sit 3rd with 22 points from 13 games, 2 points ahead.
York City's last 6 saw 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 8 scored and 11 conceded. From their last 6, Walsall won 2, drew 3, lost 1, scoring 11 and conceding 8.
This season, 71% of York City games saw both teams score and 50% had over 2.5 goals. Walsall's figures are 54% and 46%. York City create 1.68 expected goals a game and concede 1.19; Walsall create 1.56 and concede 1.60.
The model works from expected goals: York City at 1.67, Walsall at 1.25. On those figures, a York City win comes out as the likeliest result at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Walsall 28%.
We predict York City 2-1 Walsall. At 11.9%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. The likeliest score in the result we favor is 2-1.
York City v Walsall numbers
| Per game |  York City |  Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.4 / 5.8 | 6.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.01 / 1.40 | 1.71 / 1.96 |
| Per game | York City | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.62 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 46% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.9 | 6.4 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.68 / 1.19 | 1.56 / 1.60 |
| Per game | York City | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.29 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 4.6 | 6.1 / 6.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 0.91 | 1.47 / 1.84 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | York City win | 47% | 11/10 |
| Draw | 25% | 29/10 | |
| Walsall win | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Double chance | York City or draw | 72% | 2/5 |
| Walsall or draw | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Draw no bet | York City | 62% | 8/13 |
| Walsall | 38% | 17/10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 8/11 |
| No | 41% | 7/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 2/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | York City and yes | 24% | 16/5 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Walsall and yes | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | York City and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
| Walsall and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| York City and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Walsall and under 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Half time / full time | York City / York City | 29% | 5/2 |
| Walsall / Walsall | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / York City | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Over 10.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 12/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Who we think will start
York City 3-4-2-1
- Mcnally, Alfie.GK
- Hunt, Jack.MID
- Boyes, Harry.MID
- Kitching, Mark.DEF
- Johnson, Zak.DEF
- Fallowfield, Ryan.DEF
- Hunt, Alex.MID
- Read, Arthur.MID
- Stones, Josh.FWD
- Grey, Joey.FWD
- Pearce, Ollie.FWD
Started at Grimsby Sat 31 Oct.
Walsall 4-2-3-1
- Ward, Jed.GK
- Ahui, Elicha.DEF
- Hancock, Mason.DEF
- Moore, Isaac.MID
- Skura, Declan.DEF
- Connolly, James.DEF
- Simper, Lewis.MID
- Crew, Charlie.MID
- Pressley, Aaron.FWD
- Sodje, Tai.MID
- Smith, Reece.MID
Started at Colchester Sat 31 Oct.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For York City, 15 games played. Walsall, 15 games played too.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.9 overall, with the league at 9.9, York City 5.4 and Walsall 5.5.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6(league 3.7)
Form guide
York City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-5 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Barnet | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Port Vale | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Accrington | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Newport County | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Northampton | 1-1 | D |
Read scores with York City first.
Walsall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Colchester | 3-1 | W |
| Mon 26 Oct | v Salford | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Oldham | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Swindon | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
Read scores with Walsall first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00