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Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Derby County prediction

Wolverhampton Wanderers crestWolves
20:00Tuesday 24 November
DerbyDerby County crest
1-0predicted score (11%)
50%both teams score
52%over 2.5 goals
1.87-0.88expected goals

The analysis we've put together

With 27 points from 14 games, Wolves hold 2nd place in the Championship. Derby are 23rd, with 7 points from 14 and 20 points behind.

Wolves scored 10 and conceded 6 in their last 6, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 1. Derby's last 6 show 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 4 scored and 15 conceded.

For Wolves this season, both teams scored in 64% of games and 64% went over 2.5 goals; Derby's figures are 57% and 57% respectively. Wolves create 1.77 expected goals a game and allow 0.91. Derby's figures are 0.98 created and 1.95 allowed.

The model puts a Wolves win first at 60%, with the draw on 23% and Derby 16%. Those chances come from expected goals, 1.87 for Wolves and 0.88 for Derby.

The predicted score is Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 Derby County.

Stats: Wolves v Derby

Per gameWolverhampton Wanderers crestWolvesDerby County crestDerby
Games55
Goals scored a game1.800.60
Goals conceded a game0.602.80
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%
Clean sheets40%0%
Corners won / conceded6.8 / 2.85.0 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game2.62.4
xG for / against1.69 / 0.700.99 / 2.25

Fair prices for each market

Match resultWolves win60%4/6
Draw23%10/3
Derby win16%5/1
Double chanceWolves or draw84%1/5
Derby or draw40%6/4
Draw no betWolves78%2/7
Derby22%18/5
Both teams to scoreYes50%evens
No50%evens
GoalsOver 1.577%3/10
Over 2.552%10/11
Under 2.548%21/20
Over 3.530%12/5
Result and BTTSWolves and yes26%29/10
Draw and yes16%5/1
Derby and yes8%11/1
Result and goalsWolves and over 2.538%13/8
Derby and over 2.59%10/1
Wolves and under 2.523%17/5
Derby and under 2.57%12/1
Half time / full timeWolves / Wolves38%8/5
Draw / Wolves19%4/1
Draw / Draw14%13/2
Derby / Derby9%10/1
CornersOver 9.557%8/11
Over 10.546%6/5
CardsOver 3.557%8/11
Over 4.540%6/4

Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Expected starters

Wolverhampton Wanderers crestWolves 4-2-3-1

  1. Name: José Sá.GK
  2. Name: Kieran Trippier.DEF
  3. Name: Hugo Bueno.DEF
  4. Name: Marshall Munetsi.MID
  5. Name: Yerson Mosquera.DEF
  6. Name: Ladislav Krejcí.DEF
  7. Name: Fernando López.MID
  8. Name: André.MID
  9. Name: Adam Armstrong.FWD
  10. Name: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde.MID
  11. Name: Rafiki Said.MID

They started Wed 4 Nov at Bristol City.

Derby County crestDerby 4-4-2

  1. Name: Jacob Widell Zetterström.GK
  2. Name: Isaac Gordon.DEF
  3. Name: Max Johnston.DEF
  4. Name: Alex Mowatt.MID
  5. Name: Ryan Nyambe.DEF
  6. Name: Dion Sanderson.DEF
  7. Name: Sammie Szmodics.MID
  8. Name: Oscar Fraulo.MID
  9. Name: Carlton Morris.FWD
  10. Name: Henrik Meister.FWD
  11. Clark, Bobby.MID

They started Tue 3 Nov v Norwich City.

Chances for the correct score

% chance for each score, with Wolves goals down the side and Derby goals across
012345
07.05.02.50.70.20.0
111.411.14.61.30.30.1
211.29.84.31.30.30.0
37.06.12.70.80.20.0
43.32.91.30.40.10.0
51.21.10.50.10.00.0

Scoring times

611-153316-306231-455246-604161-756376-90

Games played: Wolves, 17. Derby, 15 games played.

Corners plus cards

Latest form

Wolverhampton Wanderers crestWolverhampton Wanderers

Last 6 for Wolves
Result
Wed 4 Novat Bristol City2-1W
Sat 31 Octv Cardiff3-0W
Sat 24 Octv Watford1-0W
Tue 20 Octv Portsmouth1-1D
Fri 16 Octat Burnley2-1W
Tue 13 Octv Bolton1-3L

Wolves appear first in the scores.

Derby County crestDerby County

Last 6 for Derby
Result
Tue 3 Novv Norwich0-4L
Sat 31 Octat Millwall1-4L
Sat 24 Octat Sheffield United1-1D
Sat 17 Octv Stoke0-1L
Wed 14 Octat QPR1-4L
Sat 10 Octv Wrexham1-1D

Derby appears first in the scores.

Championship standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
1Middlesbrough crestMiddlesbrough14842+1128
2Wolverhampton Wanderers crestWolverhampton Wanderers14833+827
3Birmingham City crestBirmingham City14752+1326
4Stoke City crestStoke City14824+526
21Charlton Athletic crestCharlton Athletic14356-1114
22Burnley crestBurnley14176-810
23Derby County crestDerby County14149-187
24Preston North End crestPreston North End141211-185

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

Additional Championship predictions