Stoke City vs Preston North End prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Stoke 54%, a draw 25% and Preston 21%, the average across 6 UK bookmakers.
How the model judged it
Stoke sit 3rd in the Championship, with 26 points earned in 14 matches. Preston sit 24th in the table, with 5 points from 14 games, 21 points behind.
Stoke's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. From their last 6, Preston took 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 4 goals for and 13 against.
So far this season, 67% of Stoke matches saw both teams score and 67% finished above 2.5 goals. Preston match those numbers, at 67% and 67%. Stoke's expected goals sit at 0.92 a game with 1.61 allowed; Preston are on 1.24 created and 1.48 allowed.
Since August 2024 there have been 4 meetings in our results. Stoke won 0 of them, Preston won 1, and 3 were level. Friday 20 March 2026 was the most recent meeting, and Preston 3-1 Stoke was the result.
A Stoke win is the likeliest result in the model at 48%, with the draw on 27% and Preston 25%. The expected goals behind that call are 1.53 for Stoke, 1.02 for Preston. Strip out the margin and UK bookmakers put it at 54%, so the market sees more chance in it than we do.
The score we predict is Stoke City 1-0 Preston North End. Of all exact scores, 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.9%. Inside the result we favor, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stoke against Preston: stats
| Per game |  Stoke |  Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.2 | 3.6 / 7.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 0.71 / 1.59 | 1.02 / 1.88 |
| Per game | Stoke | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 2.08 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 5.2 | 4.8 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 0.92 / 1.61 | 1.24 / 1.48 |
| Per game | Stoke | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 3.8 | 3.0 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 0.87 / 1.04 | 1.19 / 1.57 |
| Per game | Stoke | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 9.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 9.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Fair prices plus the best UK odds
| Match result | Stoke win | 48% | 11/10 | 8/11 Paddy Power | -15.7% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 11/4 Betway | +3.1% | |
| Preston win | 25% | 3/1 | 7/2 Betway | +13.6% | |
| Double chance | Stoke or draw | 75% | 1/3 | ||
| Preston or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Stoke | 66% | 1/2 | ||
| Preston | 34% | 2/1 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | evens | ||
| No | 49% | 21/20 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 10/11 bet365 | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 10/11 bet365 | +1.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Stoke and yes | 21% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Preston and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Stoke and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Preston and over 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Preston and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Stoke / Stoke | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw / Stoke | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Preston / Preston | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 5/2 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Prices at bookmakers come from football-data.co.uk; it carries match odds and the over/under 2.5 market only. The edge marks the spots where we have both numbers.
The starting elevens
Stoke 3-4-3
- Johansson, Viktor.GK
- Johnson, Ben.MID
- Bombino, Luca.MID
- Graham, Luke.DEF
- Lawal, Bosun.DEF
- Wilmot, Ben.DEF
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Galbraith, Ethan.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- McGlynn, Jack.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
Preston 3-4-3
- Iversen, Daniel.GK
- Potts, Brad.MID
- Vukcevic, Andrija.MID
- Hughes, Andrew.DEF
- Storey, Jordan.DEF
- Offiah, Odeluga.DEF
- Leroy, Leo.MID
- Thompson, Jordan.MID
- Kenny, Johnny.FWD
- Lang, Callum.FWD
- Burgzorg, Delano.FWD
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When their goals come
For Stoke, 16 games. For Preston, 16 games. ESPN match events this season give the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- 10.6corners expected (Stoke 6.0, league 10.4; Preston 4.6).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.5 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Sheffield United | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Watford | 2-1 | W |
The first score shown belongs to Stoke.
Preston North End
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v West Brom | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wrexham | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Birmingham | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Millwall | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at QPR | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Lincoln | 0-1 | L |
Read the scores with Preston first.
Head to head
| Fri 20 Mar 2026 | Championship | Preston 3-1 Stoke | 1-1 | 16 |
| Fri 26 Dec 2025 | Championship | Stoke 0-0 Preston | 0-0 | 12 |
| Sat 5 Apr 2025 | Championship | Preston 1-1 Stoke | 1-0 | 10 |
| Tue 26 Nov 2024 | Championship | Stoke 0-0 Preston | 0-0 | 18 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.