Southampton vs Derby County prediction

Southampton

12:30Saturday 21 November

Derby

Championship
St. Mary's Stadium is the venue.

2-1predicted score (10%)

59%both teams score

63%over 2.5 goals

2.16-1.08expected goals

61%21%18%

Our assessment

In the Championship, Southampton sit 7th after 14 games with 24 points. Derby occupy 23rd place with 7 points from 14 games, 17 points adrift.

Southampton's last 6 games gave them 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats, with 10 goals for and 4 against. Their last 6 games brought Derby 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 4 scored and 15 conceded.

So far this season, 79% of Southampton's matches had both teams score, and 57% went over 2.5 goals. Derby's figures are 57% and 57%. Southampton's expected goals are 1.70 a game, with 1.34 allowed; Derby's are 0.98, with 1.95 allowed.

Our results include 2 meetings since August 2024, and the outcomes were Southampton 1, Derby 0 and 1 level. The most recent of those, played on Saturday 11 April 2026, ended with Southampton 2-1 Derby.

Our model gives a Southampton win a 61% chance, the likeliest result, with the draw on 21% and Derby 18%. Expected goals are 2.16 for Southampton and 1.08 for Derby.

Our predicted score is Southampton 2-1 Derby County.

Stats for Southampton v Derby

Per game	Southampton	Derby
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.80	0.60
Goals conceded a game	0.80	2.80
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Corners won / conceded	5.6 / 5.6	5.0 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game	1.4	2.4
xG for / against	1.73 / 1.47	0.99 / 2.25

Per game	Southampton	Derby
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	2.07	0.79
Goals conceded a game	1.00	2.07
Both teams scored	79%	57%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%
Clean sheets	21%	7%
Corners won / conceded	5.4 / 4.7	5.5 / 5.3
Yellow cards a game	1.8	2.4
xG for / against	1.70 / 1.34	0.98 / 1.95

Per game	Southampton	Derby
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	2.86	1.00
Goals conceded a game	0.71	2.14
Both teams scored	71%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	71%	57%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Corners won / conceded	5.6 / 4.6	4.7 / 5.3
Yellow cards a game	1.6	2.7
xG for / against	1.87 / 1.28	0.95 / 2.04

Per game	Southampton	Derby
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.50	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.00	1.50
Both teams scored	100%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	5.5 / 2.5	2.5 / 5.5
Yellow cards a game	1.5	3.0

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Southampton win	61%	8/13
	Draw	21%	18/5
	Derby win	18%	9/2
Double chance	Southampton or draw	82%	2/9
	Derby or draw	39%	8/5
Draw no bet	Southampton	78%	2/7
	Derby	22%	7/2
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	4/6
	No	41%	7/5
Goals	Over 1.5	84%	2/11
	Over 2.5	63%	4/7
	Under 2.5	37%	17/10
	Over 3.5	41%	6/4
Result and BTTS	Southampton and yes	32%	21/10
	Draw and yes	17%	5/1
	Derby and yes	10%	17/2
Result and goals	Southampton and over 2.5	44%	5/4
	Derby and over 2.5	12%	15/2
	Southampton and under 2.5	17%	5/1
	Derby and under 2.5	6%	16/1
Half time / full time	Southampton / Southampton	40%	6/4
	Draw / Southampton	18%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	11%	8/1
	Derby / Derby	10%	9/1
Corners	Over 9.5	59%	4/6
	Over 10.5	48%	21/20
Cards	Over 3.5	56%	4/5
	Over 4.5	39%	8/5

Match result

Southampton win

61%

8/13

Draw

21%

18/5

Derby win

18%

9/2

Double chance

Southampton or draw

82%

2/9

Derby or draw

39%

8/5

Draw no bet

Southampton

78%

2/7

Derby

22%

7/2

Both teams to score

Yes

59%

4/6

41%

7/5

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

2/11

Over 2.5

63%

4/7

Under 2.5

37%

17/10

Over 3.5

41%

6/4

Result and BTTS

Southampton and yes

32%

21/10

Draw and yes

17%

5/1

Derby and yes

10%

17/2

Result and goals

Southampton and over 2.5

44%

5/4

Derby and over 2.5

12%

15/2

Southampton and under 2.5

17%

5/1

Derby and under 2.5

16/1

Half time / full time

Southampton / Southampton

40%

6/4

Draw / Southampton

18%

9/2

Draw / Draw

11%

8/1

Derby / Derby

10%

9/1

Corners

Over 9.5

59%

4/6

Over 10.5

48%

21/20

Cards

Over 3.5

56%

4/5

Over 4.5

39%

8/5

Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance.

The line-ups we expect

Southampton 4-2-3-1

Peretz, Daniel.GK
Bree, James.DEF
Manning, Ryan.DEF
Downes, Flynn.MID
Stephens, Jack.DEF
Schlotterbeck, Keven.DEF
Matsuki, Kuryu.MID
Ward-Prowse, James.MID
Mubama, Divin.FWD
Azaz, Finn.MID
Edozie, Samuel.MID

They started at West Brom on Tue 3 Nov.

Derby 4-4-2

Widell Zetterström, Jacob.GK
Gordon, Isaac.DEF
Johnston, Max.DEF
Mowatt, Alex.MID
Nyambe, Ryan.DEF
Sanderson, Dion.DEF
Szmodics, Sammie.MID
Fraulo, Oscar.MID
Morris, Carlton.FWD
Meister, Henrik.FWD
Clark, Bobby.MID

Started against Norwich City on Tue 3 Nov.

Chances for the exact score

Each score's chance in %, with Southampton goals down the side and Derby goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.5	3.7	2.3	0.8	0.2	0.0
1	7.9	9.7	4.9	1.8	0.5	0.1
2	9.1	9.9	5.3	1.9	0.5	0.1
3	6.6	7.1	3.8	1.4	0.4	0.1
4	3.5	3.8	2.1	0.8	0.2	0.0
5	1.5	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

Scoring times

Derby, 15 games; Southampton, 16 games.

Corners plus cards

We expect 10.6 corners, split as Southampton 5.5 and Derby 5.1, against a league figure of 10.4.
Yellow cards expected: 4.1 (league 3.7).

Latest form

Southampton

Southampton's last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	at West Brom	1-1	D
Sat 31 Oct	v QPR	4-1	W
Sat 24 Oct	at West Ham	3-2	W
Sat 17 Oct	v Bolton	0-0	D
Wed 14 Oct	at Norwich	1-0	W
Sun 11 Oct	v Portsmouth	1-0	W

Each score lists Southampton first.

Derby County

Derby's last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Norwich	0-4	L
Sat 31 Oct	at Millwall	1-4	L
Sat 24 Oct	at Sheffield United	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Stoke	0-1	L
Wed 14 Oct	at QPR	1-4	L
Sat 10 Oct	v Wrexham	1-1	D

Each score lists Derby first.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Sat 11 Apr 2026	Championship	Southampton 2-1 Derby	0-1	8
Sat 4 Oct 2025	Championship	Derby 1-1 Southampton	1-1	8

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
5	Swansea City	14	8	2	4	+5	26
6	West Bromwich Albion	14	7	4	3	+5	25
7	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	24
8	West Ham United	14	6	5	3	+15	23
9	Sheffield United	14	6	4	4	+3	22
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby County	14	1	4	9	-18	7
24	Preston North End	14	1	2	11	-18	5