Sheffield Wednesday vs Blackpool prediction
With the margin removed, the market average across 6 UK bookmakers has Sheff Wed 54%, draw 24%, Blackpool 22%
The model's view of the match
In League One, Sheff Wed hold 9th place after taking 20 points across 13 games played. In the table, Blackpool sit 19th on 12 points from 12 matches, trailing by 8 points.
Across their last 6 matches, Sheff Wed recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. In their last 6, Blackpool took 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 7 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 50% of Sheff Wed matches this season, and 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Blackpool's two figures are 64% and 64%. Expected goals per game: Sheff Wed make 1.75 and concede 1.43, while Blackpool make 1.29 and concede 2.00.
The model expects 1.55 expected goals from Sheff Wed and 1.19 from Blackpool. On that basis, a Sheff Wed win is most likely at 45%, while the draw is 27% and Blackpool 29%. The market, after the margin comes out, prices it at 54% through UK bookmakers. That's higher than our estimate.
The predicted score is Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Blackpool. For exact scores, 1-1 is the single likeliest at 12.6%, and within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Sheff Wed v Blackpool
| Per game |  Sheff Wed |  Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 6.6 | 5.6 / 7.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.48 / 1.50 | 0.78 / 1.84 |
| Per game | Sheff Wed | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 11 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.45 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.08 | 1.82 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 18% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.7 / 6.0 | 5.2 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.75 / 1.43 | 1.29 / 2.00 |
| Per game | Sheff Wed | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.17 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 6.5 | 5.2 / 9.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.95 / 1.18 | 1.20 / 2.48 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Sheff Wed win | 45% | 5/4 | 8/11 Betway | -22.5% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 3/1 bet365 | +6.2% | |
| Blackpool win | 29% | 5/2 | 10/3 bet365 | +24.1% | |
| Double chance | Sheff Wed or draw | 71% | 2/5 | ||
| Blackpool or draw | 55% | 4/5 | |||
| Draw no bet | Sheff Wed | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Blackpool | 39% | 13/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | 4/7 bet365 | -18.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 | 11/8 bet365 | +13.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 5/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Sheff Wed and yes | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Blackpool and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Sheff Wed and over 2.5 | 28% | 5/2 | ||
| Blackpool and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Sheff Wed and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Blackpool and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Sheff Wed / Sheff Wed | 27% | 11/4 | ||
| Blackpool / Blackpool | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Sheff Wed | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 69% | 4/9 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 58% | 8/11 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices, and it lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears where both numbers are available.
Players set to start
Sheff Wed 3-4-2-1
- Maynard-Brewer, Ashley.GK
- Valery, Yan.MID
- Lowe, Max.MID
- Swinkels, Sil.DEF
- Weaver, Ernie.DEF
- Palmer, Liam.DEF
- Heskey, Jaden.MID
- Bannan, Barry.MID
- Burstow, Mason.FWD
- Slattery, Callum.FWD
- Kellior-Dunn, Davis.FWD
Blackpool 5-3-2
- Peacock-Farrell, Bailey.GK
- Williams, Jordan.DEF
- Coulson, Hayden.DEF
- Ashworth, Zachary.DEF
- Casey, Oliver.DEF
- Lyons, Andy.DEF
- Anderson, Karoy.MID
- Morgan, Albie.MID
- Taylor, Dale.FWD
- Bloxham, Tom.FWD
- Clarkson, Leighton.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered: Sheff Wed, 15; Blackpool, 14. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corner expectation is 11.6Sheff Wed 5.9 and Blackpool 5.7; the league figure is 10.4 corners
- After referee adjustment, the expected yellow-card total is 3.3 (league 3.7).
Form in recent matches
Sheffield Wednesday
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Cambridge | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Doncaster | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Notts County | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v AFC Wimbledon | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Huddersfield | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Stockport | 0-0 | D |
For these scores, Sheff Wed appears first.
Blackpool
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Mansfield | 1-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Milton Keynes Dons | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Cambridge | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Plymouth | 2-4 | L |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Bromley | 2-2 | D |
For these scores, Blackpool appears first.
League One standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |  Bradford City | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +0 | 21 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 20 |
| 10 |  Leicester City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 |
| 17 |  Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 |  AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 20 |  Doncaster Rovers | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Wigan Athletic | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.