Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley prediction
Market estimates without margin: QPR 47%, a draw 26%, and Burnley 27%. The average comes from 6 UK bookmakers.
The model's view of the match
In the Championship, QPR sit 11th with 21 points from 14 games Burnley sit 22nd with 10 points from 14 games, 11 points behind
Across their last 6, QPR recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. They scored 13 and conceded 11. From their last 6, Burnley recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 9 scored and 9 against.
For QPR this season, 62% of matches saw both sides score, and 62% finished above 2.5 goals. Burnley's figures were 85% and 69%. Each game, QPR produce 1.66 expected goals and concede 1.14, while Burnley produce 1.34 and concede 1.53.
Since August 2024 these two have met 2 times in our results, with QPR winning 0, Burnley winning 1 and 1 ending level Their latest meeting, on Saturday 26 April 2025, ended QPR 0-5 Burnley
The model puts a QPR win first at 39% (the draw 27%, Burnley 34%), based on expected goals that put QPR at 1.45 and Burnley at 1.34. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers price this outcome at 47%. The market gives it a higher rating than we do.
Our predicted score is Queens Park Rangers 2-1 Burnley At 12.7%, 1-1 is the likeliest of all exact scores. Within the outcome we lean toward, 2-1 ranks highest.
Stats for QPR v Burnley
| Per game |  QPR |  Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 4.8 | 4.4 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.71 / 1.08 | 1.67 / 1.39 |
| Per game | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.23 | 1.92 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 69% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 15% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.2 | 4.7 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.66 / 1.14 | 1.34 / 1.53 |
| Per game | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.83 | 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 3.8 | 4.5 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 2.22 / 0.98 | 1.62 / 1.72 |
| Per game | QPR | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 100% |
| Corners won / conceded | 1.5 / 11.0 | 11.0 / 1.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 1.0 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | QPR win | 39% | 13/8 | 5/4 Betway | -12.3% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 11/4 Sky Bet | +0.3% | |
| Burnley win | 34% | 15/8 | 11/4 bet365 | +26.8% | |
| Double chance | QPR or draw | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| Burnley or draw | 61% | 8/13 | |||
| Draw no bet | QPR | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Burnley | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 8/11 bet365 | -8.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 11/10 bet365 | -0.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | QPR and yes | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Burnley and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Result and goals | QPR and over 2.5 | 24% | 3/1 | ||
| Burnley and over 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 | |||
| QPR and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Burnley and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | QPR / QPR | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Burnley / Burnley | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / QPR | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 44% | 5/4 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 5/2 |
Our fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance. We take football-data.co.uk for bookmaker prices. It lists match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge marks where both figures are available.
Line-ups for the teams set to start
QPR 4-4-2
- Charles, Pierce.GK
- Adamson, Kealey.DEF
- Cirkin, Dennis.DEF
- Varane, Jonathan.MID
- Dunne, Jimmy.DEF
- Edwards, Ronnie.DEF
- Vale, Harvey.MID
- Kamara, Glen.MID
- Smyth, Paul.FWD
- Kone, Richard.FWD
- Saito, Koki.MID
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- Coudert, Grégoire.GK
- Walker, Kyle.DEF
- Pires, Lucas.DEF
- Hatate, Reo.MID
- Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
- Julio, Igor.DEF
- Hountondji, Andreas.MID
- Laurent, Josh.MID
- Vardy, Jamie.FWD
- Edwards, Marcus.MID
- Ramazani, Largie.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens. They were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Game counts: QPR, 15 games; Burnley, 16 games. The goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events this season.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 9.5, with QPR 5.1 and Burnley 4.4; the league figure is 10.5.
- Expected yellow cards: 3.5, adjusted for the referee (league 3.7).
Latest form
Queens Park Rangers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Southampton | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Swansea | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Preston | 2-2 | D |
The score order starts with QPR.
Burnley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Portsmouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1-4 | L |
| Fri 16 Oct | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Charlton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Watford | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Derby | 1-1 | D |
The score order starts with Burnley.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 26 Apr 2025 | Championship | QPR 0-5 Burnley | 0-3 | 8 |
| Sat 26 Oct 2024 | Championship | Burnley 0-0 QPR | 0-0 | 17 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 | Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.