Peterborough United vs Reading prediction
Our own analysis
Two League One sides meet in an FA Cup tie. The model puts both clubs on the same scale, using league games and earlier cup ties.
Peterborough's last 6 matches brought 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 7 scored and 12 conceded. In Reading's last 6, they won 3, drew 1 and lost 2, scoring 8 and conceding 5.
Both teams scored in 54% of Peterborough's games this season, while 46% of those games had more than 2.5 goals. Reading's numbers are 50% and 50%. For expected goals, Peterborough average 1.45 created and 1.46 allowed per match; Reading sit at 1.83 created and 1.07 allowed.
Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings between them: 1 Peterborough win, 2 Reading wins and 1 draw. Their last meeting came on Monday 29 December 2025 and ended with Peterborough 1-1 Reading.
The model puts a Reading win first at 43%, with Peterborough 32% and the draw 25%. It uses 1.41 expected goals for Peterborough, plus 1.68 for Reading.
Prediction: Peterborough United 1-2 Reading. At 11.4%, 1-1 is the single likeliest exact score. Within the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Peterborough v Reading
| Per game |  Peterborough |  Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.0 / 3.2 | 5.8 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.48 / 1.39 | 1.44 / 1.25 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.85 | 1.79 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.77 | 1.07 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.7 | 5.7 / 4.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.45 / 1.46 | 1.83 / 1.07 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.14 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 4.7 | 6.0 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.57 / 1.04 | 1.72 / 0.93 |
| Per game | Peterborough | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Peterborough win | 32% | 9/4 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Reading win | 43% | 5/4 | |
| Double chance | Peterborough or draw | 57% | 4/5 |
| Reading or draw | 68% | 4/9 | |
| Draw no bet | Peterborough | 42% | 11/8 |
| Reading | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 8/13 |
| No | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 13/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Peterborough and yes | 18% | 9/2 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Reading and yes | 24% | 3/1 | |
| Result and goals | Peterborough and over 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 |
| Reading and over 2.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |
| Peterborough and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Reading and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Reading / Reading | 27% | 11/4 |
| Peterborough / Peterborough | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Reading | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 39% | 13/8 |
| Over 4.5 | 24% | 10/3 |
We work out a fair price by dividing 1 by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match, because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Expected starting elevens
Peterborough 4-2-3-1
- Bass, Alex.GK
- Johnston, Carl.DEF
- Mills, Harley.DEF
- Ashfield, Harry.MID
- Mendonça, Lucca.DEF
- O'Connor, Thomas.DEF
- Shofowoke, Bolu.MID
- Kelly, Liam.MID
- Leonard, Harry.FWD
- Williams, Ethan.MID
- Masara, Vernon.MID
Sat 31 Oct: they started against Luton.
Reading 4-4-1-1
- Pereira, Joel.GK
- Godwin-Malife, Udoka.DEF
- Roberts, Hayden.DEF
- Wing, Lewis.MID
- O'Conner, Paudie.DEF
- Dorsett, Jeriel.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyreece.MID
- Rinomhota, Andy.MID
- Marriott, Jack.FWD
- Stokes, Joshua.FWD
- Kyerewaa, Daniel.MID
They began the match Wed 4 Nov away to Oxford Utd.
For the remaining clubs, ESPN supplies the eleven who started in their most recent match. The confirmed teams from ESPN replace these once they are announced, about an hour ahead of kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring by minute
For Peterborough, 17 games. For Reading, 17 games. By minute, goals scored, taken from ESPN match events this season.
Corners plus cards
- 10.5corners expected (Peterborough 5.2, Reading 5.3; league 10.4)
- 3.2yellow cards are expected (league 3.7)
Latest form
Peterborough United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Luton | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Bradford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Bromley | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Huddersfield | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Burton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Leicester | 3-1 | W |
In the scores, Peterborough comes first.
Reading
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Oxford | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Plymouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Wed 21 Oct | v Leyton Orient | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Wigan | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 5-1 | W |
In the scores, Reading comes first.
Head to head
| Mon 29 Dec 2025 | League One | Peterborough 1-1 Reading | 0-1 | 9 |
| Tue 9 Dec 2025 | League One | Reading 1-2 Peterborough | 0-1 | 8 |
| Sat 29 Mar 2025 | League One | Reading 3-1 Peterborough | 1-0 | 6 |
| Sat 23 Nov 2024 | League One | Peterborough 1-2 Reading | 0-2 | 12 |