Oldham Athletic vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction
What we make of it
This FA Cup tie has a League Two side playing a League One side, and the gap is 1 division. Earlier cup ties and league games feed the single scale the model uses to rate both clubs.
Oldham's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 6 conceded. Across their last 6, Sheff Wed recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 43% of Oldham's games this season, while 43% went over 2.5 goals. Sheff Wed's figures are 54% and 46%. Oldham's expected goals stand at 1.40 a game, with 1.27 allowed. Sheff Wed's totals are 1.67 created and 1.41 allowed.
The model rates a Sheff Wed win as the likeliest result at 41%; Oldham 30% and the draw 29% follow behind it. Its figures start from expected goals, with Oldham at 1.09 and Sheff Wed at 1.30.
Score prediction: Oldham Athletic 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday. At 13.8%, 1-1 stands as the single likeliest exact score. For the result we lean toward, no score is likelier than 0-1.
Oldham against Sheff Wed: stats
| Per game |  Oldham |  Sheff Wed |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 6.4 | 4.6 / 7.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.57 / 1.46 | 1.25 / 1.37 |
| Per game | Oldham | Sheff Wed |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.07 | 1.69 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.36 | 1.08 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.5 | 6.0 / 6.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.40 / 1.27 | 1.67 / 1.41 |
| Per game | Oldham | Sheff Wed |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.4 | 5.8 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.28 / 1.10 | 1.55 / 1.68 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Oldham win | 30% | 9/4 |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | |
| Sheff Wed win | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Double chance | Oldham or draw | 59% | 4/6 |
| Sheff Wed or draw | 70% | 4/9 | |
| Draw no bet | Oldham | 43% | 11/8 |
| Sheff Wed | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 21/20 |
| No | 51% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70% | 4/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Oldham and yes | 13% | 13/2 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Sheff Wed and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Result and goals | Oldham and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 |
| Sheff Wed and over 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Oldham and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Sheff Wed and under 2.5 | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Sheff Wed / Sheff Wed | 24% | 10/3 |
| Draw / Draw | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Oldham / Oldham | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Sheff Wed | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 44% | 5/4 |
| Over 4.5 | 28% | 5/2 |
A fair price = 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match, as football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we predict
Oldham 3-4-1-2
- Hudson, Matthew.GK
- Scott-Morriss, Gus.MID
- Robson, Jamie.MID
- Monthe, Emmanuel.DEF
- Daniels, Donervon.DEF
- Sutton, Will.DEF
- Norburn, Oliver.MID
- Pett, Thomas.MID
- Chilvers, Noah.MID
- Fondop-Talom, Mike.FWD
- Kavanagh, Calum.FWD
They began the match at Northampton on Tue 3 Nov.
Sheff Wed 3-4-2-1 shape.
- Maynard-Brewer, Ashley.GK
- Valery, Yan.MID
- Lowe, Max.MID
- Swinkels, Sil.DEF
- Weaver, Ernie.DEF
- Palmer, Liam.DEF
- Heskey, Jaden.MID
- Bannan, Barry.MID
- Burstow, Mason.FWD
- Slattery, Callum.FWD
- Kellior-Dunn, Davis.FWD
They started Sun 1 Nov against Blackpool.
For other clubs, these are the eleven who started in their most recent match, as listed by ESPN. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, they replace these about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each team scores
Games counted: Oldham, 15 games and Sheff Wed, 15 games. This season's minute-by-minute goals come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.5, with Oldham 5.6 and Sheff Wed 5.0; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected 3.5 (league 3.7).
Form in recent matches
Oldham Athletic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Northampton | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Crawley Town | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Barnet | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Walsall | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cheltenham | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Accrington | 0-0 | D |
Oldham's score appears first in the scorelines.
Sheffield Wednesday
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | v Blackpool | 1-1 | D |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Cambridge | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Doncaster | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Notts County | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v AFC Wimbledon | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Huddersfield | 2-2 | D |
Sheff Wed's score appears first in the scorelines.