Northampton Town vs Rochdale prediction
The analysis we provide
Northampton hold 21st place in League Two, having collected 14 points from 13 matches. Rochdale sit 20th with 15 points from 14, 1 point ahead.
Across their last 6, Northampton recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and allowing 4. Rochdale's last 6 show 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 scored and 15 conceded.
This season 31% of Northampton games saw both teams score and 0% went over 2.5 goals; Rochdale's figures are 50% and 64%. Expected goals per game: Northampton 0.81 created and 1.15 allowed; Rochdale 0.79 created and 1.83 allowed.
At 42%, a Northampton win is the outcome our model rates as likeliest, with the draw on 30% and Rochdale 28%. The expected goals behind that are 1.28 for Northampton, 1.01 for Rochdale.
The prediction: Northampton Town 1-0 Rochdale. At 13.9%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score; for the result we favor, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Northampton v Rochdale
| Per game |  Northampton |  Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.4 / 3.4 | 4.8 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.08 / 1.30 | 0.90 / 2.16 |
| Per game | Northampton | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.69 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.77 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 3.8 | 4.6 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 0.81 / 1.15 | 0.79 / 1.83 |
| Per game | Northampton | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.57 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.7 / 3.1 | 4.6 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 0.83 / 0.99 | 0.61 / 1.82 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Northampton win | 42% | 11/8 |
| Draw | 30% | 12/5 | |
| Rochdale win | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Double chance | Northampton or draw | 72% | 2/5 |
| Rochdale or draw | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Draw no bet | Northampton | 60% | 4/6 |
| Rochdale | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 11/10 |
| No | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 68% | 1/2 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | Northampton and yes | 16% | 5/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Rochdale and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Northampton and over 2.5 | 21% | 18/5 |
| Rochdale and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Northampton and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Rochdale and under 2.5 | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Northampton / Northampton | 25% | 3/1 |
| Draw / Draw | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Rochdale / Rochdale | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Northampton | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 10.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 45% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 12/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
Line-ups we predict
Northampton 3-4-2-1
- Jeacock, Zach.GK
- Wormleighton, Joe.MID
- Powell, Josh.MID
- Guthrie, Jon.DEF
- Moore, Elliott.DEF
- Donacien, Janoi.DEF
- Lemonheigh-Evans, Connor.MID
- Evans, Lee.MID
- Warhurst, Matthew.FWD
- Dale, Owen.FWD
- O'Brien-Whitmarsh, Joseph.FWD
Started against Oldham on Tue 3 Nov.
Rochdale 4-2-3-1
- Waller, Sam.GK
- Sherring, Sam.DEF
- Tasker, Charlie.DEF
- Gilmour, Harvey.MID
- Flint, Aden.DEF
- Wilson, Kaiden.DEF
- Hayes, Cian.MID
- Adeeko, Babajide.MID
- Brown, Dajaune.FWD
- Silcott-Duberry, Zain.MID
- Middleton, Glenn.MID
Started at Port Vale on Sat 31 Oct.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
The totals are Northampton, 14 games, and Rochdale, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected are 9.6, with Northampton 5.0 and Rochdale 4.6; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected 3.5 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Northampton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Oldham | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Accrington | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Colchester | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Tranmere | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at York | 1-1 | D |
Northampton is listed first in the scores.
Rochdale
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Port Vale | 2-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Accrington | 0-5 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Grimsby | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Crewe | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Swindon | 1-0 | W |
Read the scores with Rochdale first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 |  Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00