Newport County vs Walsall prediction
Analysis from us
Two League Two sides meet in an FA Cup tie. The model places both clubs on a single scale based on league matches and previous cup ties.
Newport's last 6 brought 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 8 scored and 5 conceded. Walsall's last 6 record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat, 11 goals scored, 8 conceded.
This season, 57% of Newport games saw both teams score and 50% went past 2.5 goals; Walsall's numbers are 54% and 46%. Expected goals per game: Newport 1.10 created, 1.20 allowed; Walsall 1.56 created, 1.60 allowed.
Since August 2024 our results list 4 meetings. Newport came away with 0 wins, Walsall with 3, and 1 finished level. Most recently, on Saturday 21 March 2026, the outcome was Walsall 2-1 Newport County.
At 41%, a Walsall win is the likeliest result our model gives (Newport 32%, the draw 28%). It uses expected goals here: 1.20 for Newport, with 1.40 for Walsall.
Newport County 0-1 Walsall is our predicted score. One exact score leads at 1-1 with 13.2%, while 0-1 is the top score in the outcome we favor.
Newport v Walsall numbers
| Per game |  Newport |  Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 2.2 | 6.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.40 / 1.14 | 1.71 / 1.96 |
| Per game | Newport | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 1.62 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.21 | 0.92 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 46% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.2 | 6.4 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.10 / 1.20 | 1.56 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Newport | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 3.7 | 6.1 / 6.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 0.90 | 1.47 / 1.84 |
| Per game | Newport | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 6.0 | 6.0 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Newport win | 32% | 9/4 |
| Draw | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Walsall win | 41% | 6/4 | |
| Double chance | Newport or draw | 59% | 4/6 |
| Walsall or draw | 68% | 4/9 | |
| Draw no bet | Newport | 44% | 5/4 |
| Walsall | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 |
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Newport and yes | 15% | 11/2 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Walsall and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Result and goals | Newport and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 |
| Walsall and over 2.5 | 24% | 10/3 | |
| Newport and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Walsall and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Walsall / Walsall | 24% | 3/1 |
| Newport / Newport | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Walsall | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 36% | 7/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed holds no UK bookmaker prices for this match, since football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-ups we expect
Newport 4-2-3-1
- Wright, Jordan.GK
- Cameron NormanDEF
- Davies, Tom.DEF
- Brennan, Ciaran.MID
- Jenkins, Lee.DEF
- Cameron, Kyle.DEF
- Adu-Poku, Michael.MID
- Smith, Matt.MID
- Etete, Kion.FWD
- Biggins, Harrison.MID
- Bamba, Yahya.MID
These players started in the Fri 30 Oct game against Chesterfield.
Walsall 4-2-3-1
- Ward, Jed.GK
- Ahui, Elicha.DEF
- Hancock, Mason.DEF
- Moore, Isaac.MID
- Skura, Declan.DEF
- Connolly, James.DEF
- Simper, Lewis.MID
- Crew, Charlie.MID
- Pressley, Aaron.FWD
- Sodje, Tai.MID
- Smith, Reece.MID
Those who started the Sat 31 Oct game at Colchester.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their latest match. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Newport, 15 games in total, and Walsall, 15 games as well. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners sit at 10.4, split as Newport 5.2 and Walsall 5.2; the league figure is 9.9.
- Expected yellow cards 4.0, against a league figure of 3.7.
Form in recent matches
Newport County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | v Chesterfield | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cheltenham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Rotherham | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v York | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Colchester | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Gillingham | 0-0 | D |
Newport is listed first in the scores.
Walsall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Colchester | 3-1 | W |
| Mon 26 Oct | v Salford | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Oldham | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Swindon | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
Walsall is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Sat 21 Mar 2026 | League Two | Walsall 2-1 Newport County | 0-1 | 12 |
| Sat 8 Nov 2025 | League Two | Newport County 2-4 Walsall | 2-3 | 9 |
| Mon 21 Apr 2025 | League Two | Newport County 0-0 Walsall | 0-0 | 11 |
| Sun 29 Dec 2024 | League Two | Walsall 2-0 Newport County | 0-0 | 8 |