Millwall vs Derby County prediction
An average of 6 UK bookmakers, with margin removed: Millwall 56%, a draw 25% and Derby 20%.
What the model found
In the Championship, Millwall sit 13th on 18 points from 14 games played. Derby sit 23rd with 7 points from 14 games, 11 points behind Millwall.
Millwall's last 6 show 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 8 scored and 9 conceded in total. Derby played their last 6 with 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, 5 scored and 10 conceded.
This season, both teams scored in 50% of Millwall games, and 75% went above 2.5 goals. Derby's figures are 58% and 50% respectively. For expected goals, Derby create 0.98 and also allow 1.76, while Millwall create 1.77 expected goals a game and allow 1.33.
Since August 2024, our results include 4 meetings: Millwall won 2 of them, Derby won 0 and the other 2 were draws. Their most recent meeting, on Tuesday 10 March 2026, produced a Millwall 1-0 Derby score.
Expected goals of 1.78 for Millwall, plus 0.99 for Derby, feed the model, which puts a Millwall win at 55%, the draw at 25% and Derby 20%. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 56%, which is close to our figure.
We predict a Millwall 1-0 Derby County finish in this match. The likeliest single exact score comes at 1-1 with 11.7%. Within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Millwall v Derby
| Per game |  Millwall |  Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 4.6 | 4.6 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.56 / 1.28 | 1.07 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.58 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 5.9 | 5.7 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.77 / 1.33 | 0.98 / 1.76 |
| Per game | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.7 / 4.7 | 4.7 / 5.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.90 / 1.34 | 0.90 / 1.76 |
| Per game | Millwall | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.5 / 5.5 | 5.5 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Millwall win | 55% | 4/5 | 8/11 Betway | -4.2% |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 Betway | -4.4% | |
| Derby win | 20% | 4/1 | 4/1 bet365 | +0.5% | |
| Double chance | Millwall or draw | 80% | 1/4 | ||
| Derby or draw | 45% | 5/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Millwall | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Derby | 27% | 11/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | 5/6 bet365 | -3.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | evens bet365 | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 9/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Millwall and yes | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Derby and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Millwall and over 2.5 | 35% | 15/8 | ||
| Derby and over 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Millwall and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Derby and under 2.5 | 9% | 11/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Millwall / Millwall | 35% | 15/8 | ||
| Draw / Millwall | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Derby / Derby | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 69% | 4/9 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 59% | 8/11 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 59% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 43% | 11/8 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance estimate. We take bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It carries match odds, plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge marks where both numbers are available.
Starting teams and their line-ups
Millwall 4-2-3-1
- Crocombe, Max.GK
- Crama, Tristan.DEF
- Sturge, Zak.DEF
- Mazou-Sacko, Derek.MID
- Taylor, Caleb.DEF
- Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Neghli, Camiel.MID
- Metcalfe, Jenson.MID
- Dykes, Lyndon.FWD
- Cundle, Luke.MID
- Lisbie, Kyrell.MID
Derby 4-2-3-1
- Widell Zetterström, Jacob.GK
- Johnston, Max.DEF
- Hedges, Ryan.DEF
- Clark, Bobby.MID
- Nyambe, Ryan.DEF
- Robinson, Jack.DEF
- Brewster, Rhian.MID
- Ozoh, David.MID
- Morris, Carlton.FWD
- Szmodics, Sammie.MID
- Meister, Henrik.MID
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Games covered include Millwall, 17, and Derby, 15. ESPN match events show goals scored by minute this season.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 11.6 in total, with Millwall 5.6 and Derby 6.0; the league figure is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.3 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Millwall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Lincoln | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Swansea | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Preston | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v West Ham | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
Millwall is listed first in the scores.
Derby County
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Sheffield United | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Stoke | 0-1 | L |
| Wed 14 Oct | at QPR | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wrexham | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Burnley | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Birmingham | 1-2 | L |
Derby is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Tue 10 Mar 2026 | Championship | Millwall 1-0 Derby | 1-0 | 8 |
| Wed 10 Dec 2025 | Championship | Derby 1-1 Millwall | 0-0 | 18 |
| Sat 22 Feb 2025 | Championship | Derby 0-1 Millwall | 0-0 | 8 |
| Sat 19 Oct 2024 | Championship | Millwall 1-1 Derby | 0-0 | 14 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.