Millwall vs Burnley prediction
Analysis from our team
Millwall sit 13th in the Championship, with 18 points taken across 14 games Burnley sit 22nd in the table with 10 from 14, trailing by 8 points
Millwall's last 6 saw 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 8 scored and 9 conceded. Of their last 6, Burnley took 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 9
This season, both teams scored in 50% of Millwall games, and 79% of them went over 2.5 goals; Burnley stand at 86% and 64% Millwall's expected goals are 1.88 per game, with 1.32 allowed; Burnley sit at 1.25 created and 1.54 allowed
Since August 2024 the pair have met 2 times in our results: 1 Millwall win, 1 Burnley win, 0 draws Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 3 May 2025, ended Burnley 3-1 Millwall
The model rates a Millwall win as the likeliest outcome at 44%, with a draw at 27% and Burnley 28%. It uses expected goals of 1.47 for Millwall, compared with 1.12 for Burnley.
The predicted score is Millwall 1-0 Burnley. For one exact score, 1-1 leads at 13.1%; within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the most likely score
Millwall v Burnley by the numbers
| Per game |  Millwall |  Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.2 / 3.8 | 4.2 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.83 / 1.30 | 1.32 / 1.62 |
| Per game | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.64 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.71 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 5.9 | 4.4 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 1.32 | 1.25 / 1.54 |
| Per game | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.14 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 4.7 | 4.0 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 2.16 / 1.33 | 1.41 / 1.72 |
| Per game | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
Our fair prices, market by market
| Match result | Millwall win | 44% | 5/4 |
| Draw | 27% | 13/5 | |
| Burnley win | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Double chance | Millwall or draw | 72% | 2/5 |
| Burnley or draw | 56% | 4/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Millwall | 61% | 8/13 |
| Burnley | 39% | 8/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 10/11 |
| No | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 14/5 | |
| Result and BTTS | Millwall and yes | 20% | 4/1 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Burnley and yes | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Result and goals | Millwall and over 2.5 | 26% | 14/5 |
| Burnley and over 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Millwall and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Burnley and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Millwall / Millwall | 27% | 11/4 |
| Burnley / Burnley | 16% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Millwall | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance
Line-ups we expect
Millwall 4-4-2
- Crocombe, Max.GK
- Osei-Tutu, Jordi.DEF
- Sturge, Zak.DEF
- Neghli, Camiel.MID
- Taylor, Caleb.DEF
- Cooper, Jake.DEF
- Lisbie, Kyrell.MID
- Mazou-Sacko, Derek.MID
- Ivanovic, Mihailo.FWD
- Dykes, Lyndon.FWD
- Cundle, Luke.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at Birmingham.
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- Coudert, Grégoire.GK
- Walker, Kyle.DEF
- Pires, Lucas.DEF
- Hatate, Reo.MID
- Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
- Julio, Igor.DEF
- Hountondji, Andreas.MID
- Laurent, Josh.MID
- Vardy, Jamie.FWD
- Edwards, Marcus.MID
- Ramazani, Largie.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at QPR.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Millwall has 17 games and Burnley, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.4 (league 10.4; Millwall 5.5, Burnley 5.0).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Millwall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Birmingham | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Derby | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Portsmouth | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Lincoln | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Swansea | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Preston | 1-0 | W |
Millwall scores come first.
Burnley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at QPR | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Portsmouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1-4 | L |
| Fri 16 Oct | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Charlton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Watford | 4-0 | W |
Burnley scores come first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3 May 2025 | Championship | Burnley 3-1 Millwall | 1-1 | 11 |
| Sun 3 Nov 2024 | Championship | Millwall 1-0 Burnley | 0-0 | 5 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November