Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic prediction

Boro

3-0full time, Sat 31 Oct

Charlton

Championship
Riverside Stadium hosts the match.
The official is W Finnie, 3.6 cards a game across 67 matches
Not live on UK TV (Saturday blackout)

Boro scorers: Sebastian Berhalter 12', Will Lankshear 44', Will Lankshear 82'
Charlton scorers: none

2-0predicted score (12%)

49%both teams score

54%over 2.5 goals

2.00-0.83expected goals

64%22%14%

With the margin taken out, the average of 6 UK bookmakers puts Boro 75%, draw 16%, Charlton 9%.

What the model thought

Boro sit 1st in the Championship on 28 points from 13 games. Charlton sit 21st, with 14 points from 14 games, 14 points behind.

Across their last 6, Boro recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 15 scored and 9 conceded. In their last 6, Charlton finished with 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 11.

For Boro this season, 83% of matches featured goals from both sides, while 75% finished above 2.5 goals. Charlton's rates are 58% and 50%. Boro's expected goals sit at 2.17 per game, and they concede 1.01. Charlton's are 0.99, with 1.55 conceded.

Our results include 2 meetings since August 2024, where Boro took 1 win, Charlton took 1 and 0 finished level. The most recent meeting, Wednesday 11 March 2026, ended Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton.

The model's expected goals stand at 2.00 for Boro and 0.83 for Charlton, which gives a Boro win a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Charlton 14%. With the margin removed, UK bookmakers put the outcome at 75%, higher than our own figure.

Score prediction: Middlesbrough 2-0 Charlton Athletic.

Boro vs Charlton stats

Per game	Boro	Charlton
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.60	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.40	2.20
Both teams scored	80%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.6 / 4.2	3.8 / 5.8
Yellow cards a game	0.8	3.0
xG for / against	2.51 / 0.86	1.42 / 1.94

Per game	Boro	Charlton
Games	12	12
Goals scored a game	2.25	0.92
Goals conceded a game	1.42	1.50
Both teams scored	83%	58%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	25%
Corners won / conceded	6.3 / 4.8	4.4 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game	1.0	2.2
xG for / against	2.17 / 1.01	0.99 / 1.55

Per game	Boro	Charlton
Games	6	6
Goals scored a game	2.33	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.50	2.17
Both teams scored	83%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	83%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Corners won / conceded	7.3 / 4.5	3.5 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game	1.0	3.0
xG for / against	1.99 / 1.13	1.04 / 2.00

Per game	Boro	Charlton
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.00	1.00
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Corners won / conceded	8.0 / 3.5	3.5 / 8.0
Yellow cards a game	0.5	3.0

Best UK odds and fair prices


Match result	Boro win	64%	4/7	3/10 Betway	-16.6%
	Draw	22%	7/2	5/1 bet365	+30.8%
	Charlton win	14%	6/1	10/1 BetVictor	+54.8%
Double chance	Boro or draw	86%	1/6
	Charlton or draw	36%	7/4
Draw no bet	Boro	82%	2/9
	Charlton	18%	9/2
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	21/20
	No	51%	evens
Goals	Over 1.5	78%	2/7
	Over 2.5	54%	5/6	4/9 bet365	-22.9%
	Under 2.5	46%	6/5	7/4 bet365	+27.7%
	Over 3.5	31%	9/4
Result and BTTS	Boro and yes	27%	11/4
	Draw and yes	15%	11/2
	Charlton and yes	7%	14/1
Result and goals	Boro and over 2.5	41%	6/4
	Charlton and over 2.5	8%	12/1
	Boro and under 2.5	23%	10/3
	Charlton and under 2.5	6%	14/1
Half time / full time	Boro / Boro	42%	11/8
	Draw / Boro	20%	4/1
	Draw / Draw	13%	7/1
	Charlton / Charlton	8%	12/1
Corners	Over 9.5	68%	4/9
	Over 10.5	58%	8/11
Cards	Over 3.5	42%	11/8
	Over 4.5	26%	11/4

Match result

Boro win

64%

4/7

3/10 Betway

-16.6%

Draw

22%

7/2

5/1 bet365

+30.8%

Charlton win

14%

6/1

10/1 BetVictor

+54.8%

Double chance

Boro or draw

86%

1/6

Charlton or draw

36%

7/4

Draw no bet

Boro

82%

2/9

Charlton

18%

9/2

Both teams to score

Yes

49%

21/20

51%

evens

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

2/7

Over 2.5

54%

5/6

4/9 bet365

-22.9%

Under 2.5

46%

6/5

7/4 bet365

+27.7%

Over 3.5

31%

9/4

Result and BTTS

Boro and yes

27%

11/4

Draw and yes

15%

11/2

Charlton and yes

14/1

Result and goals

Boro and over 2.5

41%

6/4

Charlton and over 2.5

12/1

Boro and under 2.5

23%

10/3

Charlton and under 2.5

14/1

Half time / full time

Boro / Boro

42%

11/8

Draw / Boro

20%

4/1

Draw / Draw

13%

7/1

Charlton / Charlton

12/1

Corners

Over 9.5

68%

4/9

Over 10.5

58%

8/11

Cards

Over 3.5

42%

11/8

Over 4.5

26%

11/4

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices and covers match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears where we have both numbers.

The starting eleven for each side

Boro 4-2-3-1

Vítek, Radek.GK
Brittain, Callum.DEF
Borges, Neto.DEF
Morris, Aidan.MID
Phillips, Ashley.DEF
Malanda, Adilson.DEF
Cozier-Duberry, Amario.MID
Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
Lankshear, Will.FWD
McGree, Riley.MID
Conway, Tommy.MID

Charlton 5-3-2

Okonkwo, Arthur.GK
Ramsay, Kayne.DEF
Bell, Amari'i.DEF
Koumetio, Billy.DEF
Jones, Lloyd.DEF
Bindon, Tyler.DEF
Knibbs, Harvey.MID
Skipp, Oliver.MID
Kelman, Charlie.FWD
Leaburn, Miles.FWD
Rankin-Costello, Joe.MID

These starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Chances for correct scores

Each score carries a % chance, with Boro goals down the side and Charlton goals across.
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5	4.3	2.0	0.6	0.1
1	11.3	10.4	4.0	1.1	0.2
2	11.9	9.8	4.0	1.1	0.2
3	7.9	6.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
4	3.9	3.2	1.3	0.4	0.1
5	1.6	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0

When each side scores

Charlton, 16 games and Boro, 17 games. ESPN match events from this season show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Corners forecast: 11.5 in total, Boro 7.2 and Charlton 4.4; the league average is 10.4.
3.3yellow cards are expected, adjusted for the referee (league 3.7)

Latest form

Middlesbrough

Boro, last 6
			Result
Fri 23 Oct	at Bolton	5-1	W
Sat 17 Oct	v Cardiff	2-2	D
Tue 13 Oct	at Stoke	3-2	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Wolves	1-0	W
Sat 19 Sep	at Birmingham	2-2	D
Tue 15 Sep	v Millwall	2-2	D

In each score listing, Boro appears first.

Charlton Athletic

Charlton's 6 most recent matches
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	v Norwich	1-3	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Watford	0-2	L
Tue 13 Oct	at Burnley	2-2	D
Sat 10 Oct	v Bristol City	1-1	D
Sat 19 Sep	at Cardiff	1-3	L
Sat 12 Sep	v Portsmouth	0-0	D

In each score listing, Charlton appears first.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Wed 11 Mar 2026	Championship	Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton	0-0	13
Tue 9 Dec 2025	Championship	Charlton 1-2 Middlesbrough	0-2	10

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	+13	28
2	Birmingham City	14	7	5	2	+13	26
3	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26
19	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	-4	14
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby County	14	1	4	9	-18	7