Luton Town vs Forest Green Rovers prediction
Our breakdown
In this FA Cup tie, one side plays in League One and the other in National League, a gap of 2 divisions. The model puts both clubs on a single scale, using league games and past cup ties.
Luton's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 11 scored and 6 conceded. Forest Green's last 6 games brought 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 13 conceded.
This season, both teams scored in 79% of Luton matches, while 64% had more than 2.5 goals; Forest Green's figures are 64% and 64%.
The model gives a Luton win the highest chance at 83% (the draw 12%, Forest Green 6%), using 3.05 expected goals for Luton and 0.73 for Forest Green.
We predict Luton Town 3-0 Forest Green Rovers.
Stats for Luton v Forest Green
| Per game |  Luton |  Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 6.0 | 5.4 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Per game | Luton | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.93 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.7 | 6.4 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Per game | Luton | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 4.7 | 6.0 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 3.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Luton win | 83% | 1/5 |
| Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Forest Green win | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Double chance | Luton or draw | 94% | 1/16 |
| Forest Green or draw | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw no bet | Luton | 94% | 1/14 |
| Forest Green | 6% | 14/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens |
| No | 50% | evens | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 89% | 2/17 |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 4/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Result and BTTS | Luton and yes | 37% | 13/8 |
| Draw and yes | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Forest Green and yes | 3% | 28/1 | |
| Result and goals | Luton and over 2.5 | 65% | 8/15 |
| Forest Green and over 2.5 | 4% | 28/1 | |
| Luton and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Forest Green and under 2.5 | 2% | 50/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Luton / Luton | 60% | 4/6 |
| Draw / Luton | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Forest Green / Luton | 3% | 28/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 63% | 8/13 |
| Over 10.5 | 52% | 10/11 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 54% | 5/6 |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | 7/4 |
Divide 1 by our chance and you get the fair price. Because football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition, our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match.
Line-ups we predict
Luton 4-1-4-1
- Shea, James.GK
- Jones, Isaiah.DEF
- Naismith, Kal.DEF
- Walsh, Liam.MID
- Andersen, Mads.DEF
- Johnston, George.DEF
- Mendel-Idowu, Tudor.MID
- Clark, Jordan.MID
- Wells, Nahki.FWD
- Donley, Jamie.MID
- Palmer, Kasey.MID
They began at Huddersfield on Tue 3 Nov.
Forest Green 4-2-3-1
- McNicholas, Luke.GK
- Abrefa, Kelvin.DEF
- Kengni, Neil.DEF
- Clarke, Jayden.MID
- Mabete, Filozofe.DEF
- Mcintyre, Tom.DEF
- McAllister, Kyle.MID
- Campbell, Tate.MID
- Grigg, Will.FWD
- Kelly, Kyle.MID
- Ifeanyi, Brian.MID
They started against Harrogate on Sat 31 Oct.
For the other clubs, ESPN lists the eleven who started their most recent game. These are replaced by ESPN's confirmed teams once the teams are announced, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Luton there are 16 games; for Forest Green, 14 games. This season's goals scored by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.9 in total, with Luton 5.4 and Forest Green 5.6 (league 10.4).
- Yellow cards expected: 4.0, compared with a league figure of 3.7.
Form guide
Luton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Huddersfield | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Peterborough | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Doncaster | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Leicester | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Barnsley | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Milton Keynes Dons | 1-2 | L |
Luton appears first in the score listings.
Forest Green Rovers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Harrogate | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Eastleigh | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Hartlepool | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Wealdstone | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Sutton | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Boston Utd | 1-3 | L |
Here, Forest Green is shown first in the scores.