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Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen prediction

Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock
15:00Saturday 21 November
AberdeenAberdeen crest
2-1predicted score (9%)
57%both teams score
54%over 2.5 goals
1.57-1.26expected goals

The analysis we provide

With 9 points from 12 games, Kilmarnock sit 11th in the Scottish Premiership. Aberdeen sit 10th on 11 points from 11 games, 2 points clear.

Across their last 6 matches, Kilmarnock recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 14. Over their last 6 matches, Aberdeen claimed 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 10 scored and 7 conceded.

This season, both teams scored in 58% of Kilmarnock games, while 67% had more than 2.5 goals; Aberdeen's rates were 36% and 45%. For Kilmarnock, expected goals are 1.34 a game and 2.07 allowed; for Aberdeen, they are 1.25 and 1.47.

Our results list 8 meetings since August 2024: Kilmarnock took 2 wins, Aberdeen took 5 and 1 was level. Their most recent meeting, on Saturday 5 September 2026, ended Aberdeen 0-0 Kilmarnock.

The model gives a Kilmarnock win the highest chance at 44% (the draw 26%, Aberdeen 30%), using 1.57 expected goals for Kilmarnock and 1.26 for Aberdeen.

Our prediction is Kilmarnock 2-1 Aberdeen. At 12.4%, 1-1 stands as the single likeliest exact score; for the result we lean toward, 2-1 has the highest chance.

Match stats for Kilmarnock v Aberdeen

Per gameKilmarnock crestKilmarnockAberdeen crestAberdeen
Games55
Goals scored a game1.401.20
Goals conceded a game2.601.40
Both teams scored80%60%
Over 2.5 goals100%40%
Clean sheets0%0%
Corners won / conceded6.0 / 5.67.4 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game2.01.4
xG for / against1.97 / 1.771.50 / 1.22

Market fair prices

Match resultKilmarnock win44%13/10
Draw26%14/5
Aberdeen win30%23/10
Double chanceKilmarnock or draw70%4/9
Aberdeen or draw56%4/5
Draw no betKilmarnock59%4/6
Aberdeen41%6/4
Both teams to scoreYes57%8/11
No43%11/8
GoalsOver 1.578%2/7
Over 2.554%5/6
Under 2.546%6/5
Over 3.532%11/5
Result and BTTSKilmarnock and yes22%7/2
Draw and yes20%4/1
Aberdeen and yes16%11/2
Result and goalsKilmarnock and over 2.528%13/5
Aberdeen and over 2.519%9/2
Kilmarnock and under 2.516%11/2
Aberdeen and under 2.511%8/1
Half time / full timeKilmarnock / Kilmarnock27%13/5
Aberdeen / Aberdeen18%9/2
Draw / Kilmarnock15%6/1
Draw / Draw14%6/1
CornersOver 9.558%8/11
Over 10.547%11/10
CardsOver 3.550%evens
Over 4.533%2/1

Our fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance.

Line-up predictions

Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock 3-4-1-2

  1. Mantl, Nico.GK
  2. Brandon, Jamie.MID
  3. Ring, Erik.MID
  4. Stanger, George.DEF
  5. Deas, Robbie.DEF
  6. McCarthy, Cathal.DEF
  7. Tshibola, Aaron.MID
  8. Lowery, Tom.MID
  9. Kiltie, Greg.MID
  10. Hugill, Joe.FWD
  11. Daniels, Djenario.FWD

They started the match against St Johnstone on Sat 31 Oct.

Aberdeen crestAberdeen 4-2-3-1

  1. Müller, Marius.GK
  2. Cadden, Christopher.DEF
  3. Guinness-Walker, Nesta.DEF
  4. Afeez, Aremu.MID
  5. Molloy, Gavin.DEF
  6. Happe, Daniel.DEF
  7. Smith, Lewis.MID
  8. Lyons, Brad.MID
  9. Mouloua, Ayoub.FWD
  10. Nisbet, Kevin.MID
  11. Armstrong, Stuart.MID

They started Wed 28 Oct v Falkirk.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Kilmarnock goals down the side and Aberdeen goals across
012345
06.66.74.72.00.60.2
18.612.47.43.11.00.2
27.39.25.82.40.80.2
33.84.83.01.30.40.1
41.51.91.20.50.20.0
50.50.60.40.20.00.0

When the teams score

211-151216-303131-454346-602161-751476-90

The figures are Kilmarnock, 12 games and Aberdeen, 11 games.

Cards and corners

Latest form

Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Kilmarnock's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octv St Johnstone2-2D
Wed 28 Octat Dundee1-3L
Sat 24 Octat Falkirk0-3L
Sat 17 Octv Motherwell3-2W
Sat 10 Octat Rangers1-3L
Sat 19 Sepv Hearts1-1D

Kilmarnock's score comes first.

Aberdeen crestAberdeen

Aberdeen's last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octv Falkirk0-1L
Sat 24 Octat Dundee United2-3L
Sat 17 Octv St Mirren3-1W
Sun 11 Octv St Johnstone0-1L
Sat 19 Sepat Hibernian1-1D
Tue 15 Sepat Motherwell4-0W

Aberdeen's score comes first.

Head to head

Sat 5 Sep 2026Scottish PremAberdeen 0-0 Kilmarnock0-013
Sat 25 Apr 2026Scottish PremAberdeen 1-0 Kilmarnock1-011
Sat 31 Jan 2026Scottish PremKilmarnock 3-0 Aberdeen2-010
Sun 14 Dec 2025Scottish PremAberdeen 2-1 Kilmarnock0-112
Wed 29 Oct 2025Scottish PremKilmarnock 0-1 Aberdeen0-19
Sat 22 Feb 2025Scottish PremAberdeen 1-0 Kilmarnock0-013
Thu 26 Dec 2024Scottish PremKilmarnock 4-0 Aberdeen1-010
Sun 25 Aug 2024Scottish PremAberdeen 2-0 Kilmarnock1-014

Scottish Premiership standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
8St Mirren crestSt Mirren12426-814
9Motherwell crestMotherwell12336-612
10Aberdeen crestAberdeen11326-211
11Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock12237-159
12Hibernian crestHibernian11227-68

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

Other Scottish Premiership predictions