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Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk prediction

Heart of Midlothian crestHearts
15:00Sunday 8 November
FalkirkFalkirk crest
2-0predicted score (11%)
54%both teams score
57%over 2.5 goals
2.04-0.94expected goals

The analysis we provide

Hearts hold 3rd place in the Scottish Premiership, earning 20 points from 11 games. Falkirk sit 4th on 18 points from 12 games, 2 points behind.

Across their last 6 games, Hearts recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. They scored 12 and conceded 12. From their last 6 matches, Falkirk took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 scored and 4 against.

For Hearts this season, 73% of games had both teams score and 82% of games went over 2.5 goals; Falkirk's figures are 58% and 50%. Hearts create 1.75 expected goals per match and allow 1.56. Falkirk, by contrast, have 1.09 and allow 1.72.

Since August 2024, our results show 5 meetings: Hearts took 4 wins, Falkirk took 1 and 0 were draws. The most recent meeting, on Tuesday 15 September 2026, ended Falkirk 2-1 Hearts.

A Hearts win is the likeliest outcome in the model at 62%, with a draw on 22% and Falkirk 16%. That reading rests on expected goals of 2.04 for Hearts plus 0.94 for Falkirk.

The score we predict is Heart of Midlothian 2-0 Falkirk.

Hearts and Falkirk match stats

Per gameHeart of Midlothian crestHeartsFalkirk crestFalkirk
Games55
Goals scored a game2.201.80
Goals conceded a game2.000.60
Both teams scored60%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%
Clean sheets40%60%
Corners won / conceded4.8 / 4.03.8 / 8.4
Yellow cards a game2.41.6
xG for / against1.83 / 1.721.36 / 1.80

Fair prices for each market

Match resultHearts win62%8/13
Draw22%7/2
Falkirk win16%11/2
Double chanceHearts or draw84%2/11
Falkirk or draw38%13/8
Draw no betHearts80%1/4
Falkirk20%4/1
Both teams to scoreYes54%5/6
No46%6/5
GoalsOver 1.580%1/4
Over 2.557%8/11
Under 2.543%11/8
Over 3.535%15/8
Result and BTTSHearts and yes29%5/2
Draw and yes16%5/1
Falkirk and yes9%11/1
Result and goalsHearts and over 2.542%11/8
Falkirk and over 2.510%9/1
Hearts and under 2.520%4/1
Falkirk and under 2.56%14/1
Half time / full timeHearts / Hearts41%11/8
Draw / Hearts18%9/2
Draw / Draw12%15/2
Falkirk / Falkirk9%10/1
CornersOver 9.558%8/11
Over 10.547%11/10
CardsOver 3.559%8/11
Over 4.542%11/8

Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk normally publishes UK bookmaker prices for this match two or three days before kick-off. They aren't in our feed yet.

Expected starting line-ups

Heart of Midlothian crestHearts 4-2-3-1

  1. Reus, Beau.GK
  2. Altena, Jordi.DEF
  3. Mato, Rogers.DEF
  4. Magnússon, Tómas.MID
  5. Walcott, Malachi.DEF
  6. McCart, Jamie.DEF
  7. Kerjota, Sabah.MID
  8. Mendy, Laurent.MID
  9. Braga, Cláudio.FWD
  10. Miller, Calvin.MID
  11. McPake, Joshua.MID

They started against Rangers on Wed 28 Oct.

Falkirk crestFalkirk 4-2-3-1

  1. Bain, Scott.GK
  2. Strain, Ryan.DEF
  3. Tanser, Scott.DEF
  4. Spencer, Brad.MID
  5. Neilson, Lewis.DEF
  6. Henderson, Liam.DEF
  7. Ross, Ethan.MID
  8. Melniks, Deniss.MID
  9. Murrell, Jacob.FWD
  10. Barbrook, Finley.MID
  11. Eames, Owen.MID

Started Sun 1 Nov against Celtic.

Other clubs: the starting eleven from their most recent match, according to ESPN. Once ESPN confirms its teams, these line-ups are replaced, about an hour before kick-off.

Chances for correct scores

Each score's chance in %, with Hearts goals down the side and Falkirk goals across
012345
05.64.22.20.70.20.0
19.710.34.61.40.30.1
210.59.94.71.50.30.1
37.26.83.21.00.20.0
43.73.51.60.50.10.0
51.51.40.70.20.00.0

When the goals come

441-153116-305531-455146-602461-755076-90

Sample size covers Hearts, 11 games, and Falkirk, 12 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals by minute.

Corners plus cards

Form in recent matches

Heart of Midlothian crestHeart of Midlothian

Hearts, last 6
Result
Wed 28 Octv Rangers2-2D
Sun 25 Octat Motherwell2-0W
Sun 18 Octat Celtic1-7L
Sat 10 Octv St Mirren5-0W
Sat 19 Sepat Kilmarnock1-1D
Tue 15 Sepat Falkirk1-2L

Hearts scores come first.

Falkirk crestFalkirk

Falkirk, last 6
Result
Sun 1 Novv Celtic2-0W
Wed 28 Octat Aberdeen1-0W
Sat 24 Octv Kilmarnock3-0W
Sat 17 Octat Hibernian2-1W
Sat 10 Octv Dundee1-2L
Sat 19 Sepat St Johnstone1-1D

Falkirk scores come first.

Head to head

Tue 15 Sep 2026Scottish PremFalkirk 2-1 Hearts1-17
Wed 13 May 2026Scottish PremHearts 3-0 Falkirk2-010
Sat 21 Feb 2026Scottish PremHearts 1-0 Falkirk1-012
Sat 13 Dec 2025Scottish PremFalkirk 0-2 Hearts0-110
Sat 27 Sep 2025Scottish PremHearts 3-0 Falkirk2-014

Scottish Premiership standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
1Celtic crestCeltic12912+1728
2Rangers crestRangers11731+1024
3Heart of Midlothian crestHeart of Midlothian11623+720
4Falkirk crestFalkirk12534+318
5Dundee crestDundee11524+417
6Dundee United crestDundee United11443+016

The table comes from ESPN and is as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other Scottish Premiership predictions