Celtic vs Kilmarnock prediction
What we make of it
Celtic hold 1st place in the Scottish Premiership, 28 points from 12 games. The gap is 19 points, with Kilmarnock 11th on 9 from 12 games.
Celtic's last 6 gave them 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. In Kilmarnock's last 6 matches, they won 1, drew 2 and lost 3. They scored 8 and conceded 14.
This season, 50% of Celtic matches featured goals from both teams, while 58% had more than 2.5 goals. For Kilmarnock, those figures are 58% and 67%. Celtic average 2.69 expected goals a game and allow 0.95. For Kilmarnock the figures are 1.34 created and 2.07 allowed.
Since August 2024 our results list 7 meetings. Celtic took 7 of them, Kilmarnock 0, and 0 finished level. Their most recent meeting on Sunday 9 August 2026 ended Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic.
The model rates a Celtic win as the likeliest result at 82%, with the draw at 11% and Kilmarnock 6%. It uses expected goals, showing 3.23 for Celtic and Kilmarnock at 0.88.
Our predicted score is Celtic 3-0 Kilmarnock.
Celtic v Kilmarnock match stats
| Per game |  Celtic |  Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 9.6 / 2.4 | 6.0 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.59 / 1.04 | 1.97 / 1.77 |
| Per game | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.25 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 9.5 / 3.4 | 5.3 / 6.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 2.69 / 0.95 | 1.34 / 2.07 |
| Per game | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 9.5 / 4.0 | 5.3 / 8.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| xG for / against | 2.46 / 0.81 | 1.45 / 1.60 |
| Per game | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.57 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.71 | 3.57 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.6 / 4.4 | 4.4 / 7.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 5.64 / 0.85 | 0.85 / 5.64 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Celtic win | 82% | 2/9 |
| Draw | 11% | 15/2 | |
| Kilmarnock win | 6% | 14/1 | |
| Double chance | Celtic or draw | 94% | 1/14 |
| Kilmarnock or draw | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw no bet | Celtic | 93% | 1/12 |
| Kilmarnock | 7% | 12/1 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 |
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 92% | 1/12 |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 2/7 | |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Over 3.5 | 59% | 8/11 | |
| Result and BTTS | Celtic and yes | 43% | 11/8 |
| Draw and yes | 10% | 10/1 | |
| Kilmarnock and yes | 4% | 22/1 | |
| Result and goals | Celtic and over 2.5 | 68% | 4/9 |
| Kilmarnock and over 2.5 | 5% | 20/1 | |
| Celtic and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Kilmarnock and under 2.5 | 2% | 50/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Celtic / Celtic | 61% | 8/13 |
| Draw / Celtic | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 6% | 16/1 | |
| Kilmarnock / Kilmarnock | 4% | 28/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 66% | 8/15 |
| Over 10.5 | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 37% | 7/4 |
Take 1 and divide it by our chance to get the fair price. Our feed doesn't have UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk usually posts the prices two or three days before kick-off.
Who we expect to start
Celtic 4-2-3-1
- Johnstone, Sam.GK
- Donovan, Colby.DEF
- Tierney, Kieran.DEF
- McGregor, Callum.MID
- Carter-Vickers, Cameron.DEF
- Scales, Liam.DEF
- Hassan, Haissem.MID
- Oxlade-Chamberlain, Alex.MID
- Durán, Camilo.FWD
- Baur, Mika.MID
- Osmand, Callum.MID
They started Sun 1 Nov at Falkirk.
Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2
- Mantl, Nico.GK
- Brandon, Jamie.MID
- Ring, Erik.MID
- Stanger, George.DEF
- Deas, Robbie.DEF
- McCarthy, Cathal.DEF
- Tshibola, Aaron.MID
- Lowery, Tom.MID
- Kiltie, Greg.MID
- Hugill, Joe.FWD
- Daniels, Djenario.FWD
They started Sat 31 Oct v St Johnstone.
For the other clubs, these are the eleven who started their latest match, as listed by ESPN. Once ESPN confirms the teams, they replace these line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Shown here: Celtic, 12 games, and Kilmarnock, 12 games. These are goals scored by minute, taken from ESPN match events this season.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 11.2 overall, with the league at 10.3, Celtic 6.8 and Kilmarnock 4.5.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.0 (league 3.9).
Latest form
Celtic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | at Falkirk | 0-2 | L |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Dundee United | 2-2 | D |
| Sun 25 Oct | at Hibernian | 2-1 | W |
| Sun 18 Oct | v Hearts | 7-1 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Motherwell | 2-0 | W |
| Sun 20 Sep | v Rangers | 0-1 | L |
The scores list Celtic first.
Kilmarnock
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v St Johnstone | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Dundee | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Falkirk | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Motherwell | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Rangers | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Hearts | 1-1 | D |
The scores list Kilmarnock first.
Head to head
| Sun 9 Aug 2026 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic | 0-3 | 12 |
| Sun 15 Feb 2026 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 2-3 Celtic | 2-0 | 13 |
| Sun 9 Nov 2025 | Scottish Prem | Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock | 1-0 | 15 |
| Sun 14 Sep 2025 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 1-2 Celtic | 0-0 | 13 |
| Sat 12 Apr 2025 | Scottish Prem | Celtic 5-1 Kilmarnock | 4-1 | 10 |
| Sun 10 Nov 2024 | Scottish Prem | Kilmarnock 0-2 Celtic | 0-1 | 10 |
| Sun 4 Aug 2024 | Scottish Prem | Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock | 2-0 | 11 |
Scottish Premiership standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 |  Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Falkirk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 |  Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +0 | 16 |
| 7 |  St Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  St Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
The standings are from ESPN and are current as of Wednesday 4 November.