Falkirk vs St Johnstone prediction
Our assessment
Falkirk hold 4th place in the Scottish Premiership, picking up 18 points from 12 games. St Johnstone sit 7th with 14 points from 12 games, 4 points behind.
Falkirk's last 6 games brought 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. St Johnstone's last 6 brought 1 win, 4 draws and 1 defeat, with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded.
So far this season, 58% of Falkirk matches saw both teams score and 50% finished over 2.5 goals. For St Johnstone, those numbers are 67% and 50%. By expected goals, Falkirk produce 1.09 per game and concede 1.72, while St Johnstone produce 1.18 and concede 1.87.
In our results, they met 1 time since August 2024: Falkirk won 0 matches, St Johnstone won 0 matches, with 1 ending in a draw. That most recent meeting came on Saturday 19 September 2026 and ended St Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk.
Working from expected goals of 1.74 (Falkirk) and 1.05 (St Johnstone), the model rates a Falkirk win the likeliest at 53%, the draw 25% and St Johnstone 22%.
Our prediction is Falkirk 1-0 St Johnstone. One exact score stands out as the likeliest: 1-1 at 11.9%. Within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Falkirk v St Johnstone: the stats
| Per game |  Falkirk |  St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 8.4 | 2.4 / 10.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.36 / 1.80 | 1.03 / 2.34 |
| Per game | Falkirk | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.58 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.3 / 7.0 | 3.0 / 7.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.09 / 1.72 | 1.18 / 1.87 |
| Per game | Falkirk | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.5 / 8.0 | 2.8 / 8.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.43 / 1.82 | 0.97 / 2.36 |
| Per game | Falkirk | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.0 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 8.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.90 / 0.68 | 0.68 / 0.90 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Falkirk win | 53% | 10/11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| St Johnstone win | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Double chance | Falkirk or draw | 78% | 2/7 |
| St Johnstone or draw | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Draw no bet | Falkirk | 70% | 2/5 |
| St Johnstone | 30% | 12/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Falkirk and yes | 25% | 3/1 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| St Johnstone and yes | 11% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Falkirk and over 2.5 | 34% | 2/1 |
| St Johnstone and over 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Falkirk and under 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | |
| St Johnstone and under 2.5 | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Falkirk / Falkirk | 34% | 2/1 |
| Draw / Falkirk | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |
| St Johnstone / St Johnstone | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 48% | 11/10 |
| Over 4.5 | 32% | 11/5 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance.
Expected starting teams
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
- Bain, Scott.GK
- Strain, Ryan.DEF
- Tanser, Scott.DEF
- Spencer, Brad.MID
- Neilson, Lewis.DEF
- Henderson, Liam.DEF
- Ross, Ethan.MID
- Melniks, Deniss.MID
- Murrell, Jacob.FWD
- Barbrook, Finley.MID
- Eames, Owen.MID
They started Sun 1 Nov against Celtic.
St Johnstone 3-4-2-1 shape.
- Steward, Toby.GK
- Todd, Matthew.MID
- Cotterill, Joel.MID
- Alic, Enes.DEF
- Mikulic, Bozo.DEF
- Diabate, Cheick.DEF
- McAlear, Reece.MID
- Holt, Jason.MID
- Schmidt, Danny.FWD
- Steven, Taylor.FWD
- Fowler, Josh.FWD
That start came Sat 31 Oct at Kilmarnock.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
St Johnstone, 12 games, and Falkirk, 12 games.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected 10.8, with Falkirk 5.8 and St Johnstone 4.9; the league figure is 10.3.
- Yellow cards expected 3.7, with the league on 3.9.
Latest form
Falkirk
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov | v Celtic | 2-0 | W |
| Wed 28 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Kilmarnock | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Hibernian | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Dundee | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | at St Johnstone | 1-1 | D |
Falkirk scores come first.
St Johnstone
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Kilmarnock | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 28 Oct | v Motherwell | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Rangers | 0-4 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Dundee United | 1-1 | D |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Falkirk | 1-1 | D |
St Johnstone scores come first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 19 Sep 2026 | Scottish Prem | St Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk | 0-0 | 11 |
Scottish Premiership standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Rangers | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 |  Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Falkirk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 5 |  Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +0 | 16 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  St Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November