Grimsby Town vs York City prediction

Grimsby

5-2full time, Sat 31 Oct

York City

League Two
The ground is Blundell Park.
Cards per game for referee A Jackson, 3.6 in 27 matches.

Grimsby scorers: Andy Cook 13', Iwan Morgan 31', Cameron McJannett 75', Josh Andrews 78', Géza Dávid Turi 86'.
York City scorers: Alex Hunt 18', Jack Hunt 28'.

2-1predicted score (9%)

64%both teams score

63%over 2.5 goals

1.82-1.41expected goals

47%24%29%

With the margin removed, the market has Grimsby 41%, draw 25%, York City 34%, an average across 6 UK bookmakers.

What the model made of it

Grimsby sit 6th in League Two on 20 points, from 14 games played. York City sit 7th on 20 points from 14 games, 0 points level.

Grimsby won 1 of their last 6, drew 1 and lost 4, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. York City took 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 6, scoring 9 and conceding 6.

So far this season, 54% of Grimsby matches saw both teams score, and 54% went above 2.5 goals; York City sit at 69% and 46%. Expected goals a game: Grimsby 1.96 created and 1.31 allowed; York City 1.79 created and 1.07 allowed.

The likeliest outcome in the model is a Grimsby win at 47%, with the draw 24% and York City 29%, built on expected goals: Grimsby 1.82, York City 1.41. UK bookmakers have it at 41% with the margin taken out, and our own rating sits above the market.

The score we predict is Grimsby Town 2-1 York City. The one exact score most likely is 1-1 at 10.7%. Within the result we lean to, the likeliest score is 2-1.

Stats for Grimsby v York City

Per game	Grimsby	York City
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.40	1.20
Goals conceded a game	1.60	1.20
Both teams scored	60%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	20%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Corners won / conceded	6.2 / 6.4	4.2 / 5.6
Yellow cards a game	2.6	3.0
xG for / against	2.03 / 1.76	1.39 / 1.03

Per game	Grimsby	York City
Games	13	13
Goals scored a game	1.46	1.69
Goals conceded a game	1.23	1.23
Both teams scored	54%	69%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	46%
Clean sheets	31%	23%
Corners won / conceded	6.6 / 5.7	5.5 / 4.8
Yellow cards a game	1.9	1.9
xG for / against	1.96 / 1.31	1.79 / 1.07

Per game	Grimsby	York City
Games	6	6
Goals scored a game	1.33	1.00
Goals conceded a game	1.00	1.83
Both teams scored	33%	83%
Over 2.5 goals	33%	33%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.8 / 5.8	5.0 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	2.0	2.5
xG for / against	2.36 / 0.97	1.68 / 1.25

Fair prices and the best UK odds


Match result	Grimsby win	47%	11/10	5/4 Betfred	+7.6%
	Draw	24%	10/3	11/4 bet365	-10.0%
	York City win	29%	5/2	7/4 BetVictor	-18.2%
Double chance	Grimsby or draw	71%	2/5
	York City or draw	53%	10/11
Draw no bet	Grimsby	62%	8/13
	York City	38%	13/8
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	4/7
	No	36%	7/4
Goals	Over 1.5	84%	1/5
	Over 2.5	63%	8/13	4/7 bet365	-1.6%
	Under 2.5	37%	13/8	11/8 bet365	-12.3%
	Over 3.5	40%	6/4
Result and BTTS	Grimsby and yes	27%	11/4
	Draw and yes	19%	4/1
	York City and yes	18%	9/2
Result and goals	Grimsby and over 2.5	34%	2/1
	York City and over 2.5	20%	4/1
	Grimsby and under 2.5	13%	13/2
	York City and under 2.5	9%	10/1
Half time / full time	Grimsby / Grimsby	29%	5/2
	York City / York City	17%	5/1
	Draw / Grimsby	15%	11/2
	Draw / Draw	12%	7/1
Corners	Over 9.5	63%	8/13
	Over 10.5	52%	10/11
Cards	Over 3.5	51%	evens
	Over 4.5	34%	2/1

Match result

Grimsby win

47%

11/10

5/4 Betfred

+7.6%

Draw

24%

10/3

11/4 bet365

-10.0%

York City win

29%

5/2

7/4 BetVictor

-18.2%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

71%

2/5

York City or draw

53%

10/11

Draw no bet

Grimsby

62%

8/13

York City

38%

13/8

Both teams to score

Yes

64%

4/7

36%

7/4

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

1/5

Over 2.5

63%

8/13

4/7 bet365

-1.6%

Under 2.5

37%

13/8

11/8 bet365

-12.3%

Over 3.5

40%

6/4

Result and BTTS

Grimsby and yes

27%

11/4

Draw and yes

19%

4/1

York City and yes

18%

9/2

Result and goals

Grimsby and over 2.5

34%

2/1

York City and over 2.5

20%

4/1

Grimsby and under 2.5

13%

13/2

York City and under 2.5

10/1

Half time / full time

Grimsby / Grimsby

29%

5/2

York City / York City

17%

5/1

Draw / Grimsby

15%

11/2

Draw / Draw

12%

7/1

Corners

Over 9.5

63%

8/13

Over 10.5

52%

10/11

Cards

Over 3.5

51%

evens

Over 4.5

34%

2/1

Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance. The bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which covers match odds and the over/under 2.5 market only; edge appears where we have both numbers.

Starting elevens

Grimsby 3-4-1-2

Pym, Christy.GK
Foulkes, Joe.MID
Vernam, Charles.MID
McJannett, Cameron.DEF
Kacurri, Maldini.DEF
Rodgers, Harvey.DEF
Dávid Turi, Géza.MID
Walker, Jamie.MID
Green, Kieran.MID
Morgan, Iwan.FWD
Cook, Andy.FWD

York City 3-4-2-1

Mcnally, Alfie.GK
Hunt, Jack.MID
Boyes, Harry.MID
Kitching, Mark.DEF
Johnson, Zak.DEF
Fallowfield, Ryan.DEF
Hunt, Alex.MID
Read, Arthur.MID
Stones, Josh.FWD
Grey, Joey.FWD
Pearce, Ollie.FWD

ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Chances by correct score

Chance of each score in %, with Grimsby goals down the side and York City goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.6	4.9	3.9	1.8	0.6	0.2
1	6.6	10.7	7.1	3.4	1.2	0.3
2	6.6	9.2	6.5	3.1	1.1	0.3
3	4.0	5.6	4.0	1.9	0.7	0.2
4	1.8	2.6	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.1
5	0.7	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0

Scoring times

York City, 15 games; Grimsby, 15 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Corners expected 11.0 (Grimsby 5.5 and York City 5.5; league 9.9).
Yellow cards expected 3.8 (league 3.7, adjusted for the referee).

Latest form

Grimsby Town

Grimsby form, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	at Gillingham	4-1	W
Tue 20 Oct	at Rochdale	2-2	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Northampton	0-2	L
Sat 10 Oct	at Port Vale	0-1	L
Sat 3 Oct	v Shrewsbury	1-2	L
Sat 26 Sep	at Newport County	1-2	L

Grimsby scores are listed first.

York City

York City form, last 6
			Result
Tue 27 Oct	at Barnet	1-3	L
Sat 24 Oct	v Port Vale	2-0	W
Tue 20 Oct	v Accrington	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	at Newport County	1-1	D
Sat 10 Oct	v Northampton	1-1	D
Sat 26 Sep	v Gillingham	3-0	W