Grimsby Town vs Rotherham United prediction
Our assessment
Grimsby sit 6th in League Two, 20 points from 14 games. Rotherham sit 22nd in the table on 12 points from 14 games, 8 points behind.
Grimsby's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 12 scored and 10 conceded. Rotherham's last 6 gave them 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, 7 goals for and 14 against.
So far this season, 57% of Grimsby games saw both teams score, and 57% went over 2.5 goals. Rotherham's figures are 71% and 57%. Grimsby produce 2.02 expected goals a game and concede 1.24, while Rotherham produce 1.29 and concede 1.37.
The likeliest outcome in the model is a Grimsby win at 55% (the draw 24%, Rotherham 21%), working from 1.90 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.10 for Rotherham.
The predicted score is Grimsby Town 2-1 Rotherham United. 1-1 at 11.0% is the single likeliest exact score; 2-1 is the likeliest score within the result we lean to.
Stats for Grimsby v Rotherham
| Per game |  Grimsby |  Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 6.0 | 2.6 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 2.29 / 1.61 | 1.05 / 1.70 |
| Per game | Grimsby | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.79 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 7% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.5 / 5.6 | 3.4 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 2.02 / 1.24 | 1.29 / 1.37 |
| Per game | Grimsby | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.86 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 5.6 | 3.7 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| xG for / against | 2.43 / 0.88 | 1.11 / 1.15 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Grimsby win | 55% | 4/5 |
| Draw | 24% | 16/5 | |
| Rotherham win | 21% | 18/5 | |
| Double chance | Grimsby or draw | 79% | 1/4 |
| Rotherham or draw | 45% | 5/4 | |
| Draw no bet | Grimsby | 72% | 4/11 |
| Rotherham | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 |
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 1/4 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Result and BTTS | Grimsby and yes | 28% | 13/5 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Rotherham and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Result and goals | Grimsby and over 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 |
| Rotherham and over 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Grimsby and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Rotherham and under 2.5 | 8% | 12/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Grimsby / Grimsby | 35% | 9/5 |
| Draw / Grimsby | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Rotherham / Rotherham | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55% | 5/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 44% | 13/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
A fair price is 1 divided by the chance we give it.
Line-ups we predict
Grimsby 3-4-1-2
- Pym, Christy.GK
- Foulkes, Joe.MID
- Vernam, Charles.MID
- McJannett, Cameron.DEF
- Kacurri, Maldini.DEF
- Rodgers, Harvey.DEF
- Dávid Turi, Géza.MID
- Walker, Jamie.MID
- Green, Kieran.MID
- Morgan, Iwan.FWD
- Cook, Andy.FWD
Started Sat 31 Oct against York City.
Rotherham 4-3-3
- Eyestone, Julian.GK
- Rafferty, Joseph.DEF
- Ngwenya, Kieran.DEF
- Fitzgerald, Jayce.MID
- Hall, Denzel.DEF
- Iorfa, Dominic.DEF
- Cover, Brandon.MID
- Austerfield, Joshua.MID
- Mullin, Paul.FWD
- Nemane, Aaron.FWD
- Buyabu, Jili.FWD
They started at Swindon on Sat 31 Oct.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
15 games for Grimsby. Rotherham, 15 games.
Corners, plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.2, with Grimsby 5.8 and Rotherham 4.4; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8; the league figure is 3.7.
Form guide
Grimsby Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v York | 5-2 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Gillingham | 4-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Rochdale | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Northampton | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Shrewsbury | 1-2 | L |
Scores list Grimsby first.
Rotherham United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Swindon | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Shrewsbury | 3-3 | D |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Newport County | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Gillingham | 1-4 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Exeter | 0-1 | L |
Scores list Rotherham first.
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |  Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November
Additional League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00