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Gillingham vs Crewe Alexandra prediction

Gillingham crestGillingham
12:30Saturday 21 November
CreweCrewe Alexandra crest
0-1predicted score (9%)
53%both teams score
48%over 2.5 goals
1.23-1.35expected goals

The analysis we put together

Gillingham have 20 points from 14 games, placing them 8th in the League Two. Crewe sit 4th on 22 points from 14 games, 2 points ahead.

Across their last 6 games, Gillingham recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. They scored 9 and conceded 10. Crewe's previous 6 games produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while they scored 9 and conceded 11.

So far this season, both teams scored in 57% of Gillingham games and 57% of them went over 2.5 goals. Crewe's figures are 64% and 29%. Each game, Gillingham create 1.15 expected goals and concede 1.40, compared with Crewe's 1.07 created and 1.26 allowed.

There have been 4 meetings in our results since August 2024, with 1 Gillingham win, 2 Crewe wins and 1 draw. On Saturday 14 February 2026, the latest match ended with Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.

Based on 1.23 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.35 expected goals for Crewe, the model puts Crewe's win at 39%, with Gillingham 33% and 28% for the draw.

Score forecast: Gillingham 0-1 Crewe Alexandra. At 13.3%, 1-1 has the highest chance of any exact score. For the result we lean toward, 0-1 is the most likely score.

Stats for Gillingham v Crewe

Per gameGillingham crestGillinghamCrewe Alexandra crestCrewe
Games55
Goals scored a game1.801.20
Goals conceded a game2.002.00
Both teams scored100%60%
Over 2.5 goals80%40%
Clean sheets0%20%
Corners won / conceded3.6 / 6.03.2 / 4.6
Yellow cards a game2.60.8
xG for / against1.27 / 1.660.93 / 1.15

Fair prices for each market

Match resultGillingham win33%2/1
Draw28%13/5
Crewe win39%8/5
Double chanceGillingham or draw61%8/13
Crewe or draw67%1/2
Draw no betGillingham46%6/5
Crewe54%5/6
Both teams to scoreYes53%10/11
No47%11/10
GoalsOver 1.574%4/11
Over 2.548%11/10
Under 2.552%10/11
Over 3.526%14/5
Result and BTTSGillingham and yes16%11/2
Draw and yes20%4/1
Crewe and yes18%9/2
Result and goalsGillingham and over 2.519%9/2
Crewe and over 2.523%17/5
Gillingham and under 2.514%6/1
Crewe and under 2.516%5/1
Half time / full timeCrewe / Crewe23%10/3
Gillingham / Gillingham19%4/1
Draw / Draw16%5/1
Draw / Crewe14%6/1
CornersOver 9.543%11/8
Over 10.532%21/10
CardsOver 3.547%11/10
Over 4.530%23/10

Our fair price = 1 divided by our chance.

Line-ups we predict

Gillingham crestGillingham 3-4-3

  1. Wright, Oliver.GK
  2. Freeman, Nick.MID
  3. Mcmanus, Conor.MID
  4. Dobbs, Logan.DEF
  5. Beckles, Omar.DEF
  6. Smith, Andy.DEF
  7. Brophy, James.MID
  8. Coleman, Ethan.MID
  9. Sillah, Lamin.FWD
  10. Waldock, Harry.FWD
  11. Hale, Ronan.FWD

They started Sat 31 Oct at Shrewsbury.

Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe 4-2-3-1

  1. Lawlor, Ian.GK
  2. Billington, Lewis.DEF
  3. Hutchinson, Reece.DEF
  4. Thomas, Conor.MID
  5. Offord, Luke.DEF
  6. Stephenson, Joshua.DEF
  7. March, Josh.MID
  8. Holícek, Matús.MID
  9. McNeill, Charlie.FWD
  10. Tabiner, Joel.MID
  11. Gibson, Jordan.MID

They started Sat 31 Oct v Barnet.

Chances for the correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Gillingham goals down the side and Crewe goals across
012345
08.39.46.93.11.10.3
18.513.38.53.81.30.4
25.77.85.22.40.80.2
32.43.22.21.00.30.1
40.71.00.70.30.10.0
50.20.20.20.10.00.0

When the goals come

231-150416-305231-455546-603161-755676-90

The game counts are Gillingham, 15 games and Crewe, 16 games.

Corners plus cards

Latest form

Gillingham crestGillingham

Gillingham's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octat Shrewsbury2-1W
Sat 24 Octv Grimsby1-4L
Tue 20 Octv Port Vale1-1D
Sat 17 Octat Accrington1-3L
Sat 10 Octat Rotherham4-1W
Sat 3 Octv Newport County0-0D

Gillingham's score comes first.

Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra

Crewe's last 6
Result
Sat 31 Octv Barnet1-1D
Sat 24 Octat Chesterfield1-5L
Tue 20 Octat Exeter0-2L
Sat 17 Octv Rochdale3-2W
Sat 10 Octat Swindon1-0W
Sat 3 Octv Bristol Rvs3-1W

Crewe's score comes first.

Head to head

Sat 14 Feb 2026League TwoCrewe 1-0 Gillingham0-010
Sat 23 Aug 2025League TwoGillingham 1-0 Crewe0-07
Sat 15 Feb 2025League TwoGillingham 0-0 Crewe0-010
Sat 5 Oct 2024League TwoCrewe 2-0 Gillingham1-08

League Two standings

PosClubPWDLGDPts
2Barnet crestBarnet13751+1026
3Walsall crestWalsall13571+922
4Crewe Alexandra crestCrewe Alexandra14572+022
5Cheltenham Town crestCheltenham Town14635-221
6Grimsby Town crestGrimsby Town14554+620
7York City crestYork City14554+320
8Gillingham crestGillingham14554+120
9Accrington Stanley crestAccrington Stanley14473+619
10Chesterfield crestChesterfield14545+319

Standings updated Thursday 5 November

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