Forest Green Rovers vs Harrogate Town prediction
With the margin removed, the market gives Forest Green 37%, draw 26% and Harrogate 37% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model made of it
Forest Green's last 6 games brought 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 10 goals for and 12 against. From their last 6, Harrogate took 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 5.
This season, 62% of Forest Green games featured goals from both teams and 62% had over 2.5 goals. Harrogate's rates were 67% and 80%.
Expected goals stand at 1.53 for Forest Green and 1.43 for Harrogate. From these figures, the model gives a Forest Green win 39%, a draw 26% and Harrogate 35%. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 37%, so our rating is higher than the market's.
We forecast a final score of Forest Green Rovers 2-1 Harrogate Town. At 12.0%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we lean toward, 2-1 ranks highest.
Stats for Forest Green v Harrogate
| Per game |  Forest Green |  Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.2 / 4.4 | 6.6 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Per game | Forest Green | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.62 | 2.13 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.69 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 27% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.5 / 4.5 | 5.2 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Per game | Forest Green | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.88 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 43% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.9 / 4.0 | 3.4 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.4 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Forest Green win | 39% | 6/4 | 6/4 bet365 | -2.0% |
| Draw | 26% | 3/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -7.0% | |
| Harrogate win | 35% | 15/8 | 6/4 bet365 | -12.6% | |
| Double chance | Forest Green or draw | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Harrogate or draw | 61% | 4/6 | |||
| Draw no bet | Forest Green | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Harrogate | 47% | 11/10 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 4/6 | ||
| No | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 8/11 | 8/13 bet365 | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 11/8 | 5/4 bet365 | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 15/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Forest Green and yes | 21% | 7/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Harrogate and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Forest Green and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | ||
| Harrogate and over 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |||
| Forest Green and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Harrogate and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Forest Green / Forest Green | 24% | 10/3 | ||
| Harrogate / Harrogate | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Forest Green | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 11/8 |
To find the fair price, divide 1 by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which lists match odds along with over/under 2.5 only. Edge marks where both numbers are available.
Line-ups for the start
Forest Green 4-2-3-1
- McNicholas, Luke.GK
- Abrefa, Kelvin.DEF
- Kengni, Neil.DEF
- Clarke, Jayden.MID
- Mabete, Filozofe.DEF
- Mcintyre, Tom.DEF
- McAllister, Kyle.MID
- Campbell, Tate.MID
- Grigg, Will.FWD
- Kelly, Kyle.MID
- Ifeanyi, Brian.MID
Harrogate 3-5-2
- Hutchinson, Luke.GK
- Payne, Lewis.MID
- Craig, Michael.MID
- Chaplin, Archie.DEF
- Dreyer, Sam.DEF
- Cass, Lewis.DEF
- Williams, Morgan.MID
- Taylor, Ellis.MID
- Hmami, Josh.FWD
- Dolaghan, Brad.FWD
- Bristow, Ethan.MID
The starting elevens were read from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
The sample includes Forest Green, 14 games, and Harrogate, 16 games. Goal minutes this season come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expect 10.8 corners, with Forest Green 5.9, Harrogate 4.9 and the league on 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.3 (league 3.8, referee adjusted).
Form in recent matches
Forest Green Rovers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | v Eastleigh | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Hartlepool | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Wealdstone | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Sutton | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Boston Utd | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 15 Sep | at Carlisle | 1-1 | D |
Forest Green scores come first.
Harrogate Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | at Carlisle | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Sutton | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Woking | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Hornchurch | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Hartlepool | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Eastleigh | 4-1 | W |
Harrogate scores come first.