AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth prediction
Our breakdown
Across their last 6 matches, Hornchurh won 2, drew 0, lost 4, scored 7 and conceded 11. Tamworth's last 6 show 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, 9 goals scored and 9 conceded.
Hornchurh matches this season had both teams scoring in 44% of cases and went over 2.5 goals 69% of the time; Tamworth's numbers are 80% and 80%.
Expected goals stand at 1.52 for Hornchurh and 1.52 for Tamworth, and from these the model rates a Tamworth win most likely at 37% (Hornchurh 37%, the draw 25%).
The predicted score is AFC Hornchurch 1-2 Tamworth. One exact score stands out as likeliest: 1-1 at 11.7%; within the result we lean to, 1-2 is likeliest.
Stats for Hornchurh v Tamworth
| Per game | Hornchurh | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 6.0 | 4.8 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Per game | Hornchurh | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.12 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.62 | 2.13 |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.2 / 6.1 | 5.1 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Per game | Hornchurh | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.57 | 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 86% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 4.1 | 4.3 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Hornchurh win | 37% | 7/4 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Tamworth win | 37% | 13/8 | |
| Double chance | Hornchurh or draw | 63% | 8/13 |
| Tamworth or draw | 63% | 4/7 | |
| Draw no bet | Hornchurh | 50% | evens |
| Tamworth | 50% | evens | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 8/13 |
| No | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 81% | 2/9 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 8/11 | |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 11/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Hornchurh and yes | 21% | 4/1 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Tamworth and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Result and goals | Hornchurh and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 |
| Tamworth and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Hornchurh and under 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Tamworth and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Tamworth / Tamworth | 22% | 7/2 |
| Hornchurh / Hornchurh | 22% | 7/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Draw / Tamworth | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 49% | 21/20 |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
Fair price = 1 divided by our chance of it. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match yet. football-data.co.uk normally posts them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Line-ups we predict
Hornchurh 5-3-2
- Nasta, Arthur.GK
- Weston, Myles.DEF
- Pegrum, Charlie.DEF
- Greenidge, William.DEF
- Dallison-Lisbon, Thomas.DEF
- Edwards, Frankie.DEF
- Sandat, Henry.MID
- Bracking, Miles.MID
- Balanta, Ángelo.FWD
- Loft, Ryan.FWD
- Wraight, Tom.MID
They started Fri 30 Oct at AFC Fylde.
Tamworth 4-2-3-1
- Macaulay, Jonathan.GK
- Handley, Tom.DEF
- Carson, Hayden.DEF
- Kurtaran, Teo.MID
- Rye, Joe.DEF
- Parkes, Tom.DEF
- Carter, Ramell.MID
- Kelly, Gabriel.MID
- Donnelly, Kieren.FWD
- Roberts, Morgan.MID
- McGlinchey, Thomas.MID
Started Sat 31 Oct against Woking.
For other clubs we list the eleven who started their most recent match, taken from ESPN. Once the confirmed teams are named, ESPN's version replaces these roughly an hour before kick-off.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Tamworth, 15 games. Hornchurh, 16 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.8(Hornchurh 5.2, Tamworth 5.6; the league sits at 10.0)
- Yellow cards expected: 3.7(league 3.8)
The latest form
AFC Hornchurch
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | at Fylde | 1-3 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Yeovil | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Eastleigh | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Harrogate | 0-3 | L |
| Tue 29 Sep | v Aldershot | 2-1 | W |
Read the scores with Hornchurh first.
Tamworth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Woking | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Scunthorpe | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Barrow | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 30 Sep | v Sutton | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Aldershot | 1-5 | L |
Read the scores with Tamworth first.