Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale prediction
Our breakdown
Two League Two sides meet in this FA Cup tie. Both clubs are rated by the model on one scale, built from league games plus earlier cup ties.
Fleetwood Town's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, plus 10 scored and 9 conceded. Of Rochdale's last 6, 1 was a win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 scored and 15 conceded.
For Fleetwood Town this season, 64% of matches saw both teams score and 43% had more than 2.5 goals. Rochdale's figures were 50% and 64%. Their expected goals per game are 1.24 created and 1.40 allowed for Fleetwood Town, and 0.79 created and 1.83 allowed for Rochdale.
Since August 2024, our records list 1 meeting, with Fleetwood Town winning 0, Rochdale winning 1 and 0 draws. Saturday 26 September 2026 saw Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale in their latest meeting.
A Fleetwood Town win is what the model rates highest, at 54%. A draw comes next on 25%, then Rochdale 21%. These figures come from expected goals of 1.71 and 0.97, for Fleetwood Town and Rochdale.
Our predicted score is Fleetwood Town 1-0 Rochdale. At 12.0%, 1-1 stands alone as the most likely exact score. Of the result we favor, 1-0 is the top score.
Stats for Fleetwood Town v Rochdale
| Per game |  Fleetwood Town |  Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 4.5 | 4.8 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.76 / 1.07 | 0.90 / 2.16 |
| Per game | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 5.1 | 4.6 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.24 / 1.40 | 0.79 / 1.83 |
| Per game | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.3 / 3.3 | 4.6 / 5.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.33 / 0.86 | 0.61 / 1.82 |
| Per game | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.44 / 0.96 | 0.96 / 1.44 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | Fleetwood Town win | 54% | 5/6 |
| Draw | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Rochdale win | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Double chance | Fleetwood Town or draw | 79% | 1/4 |
| Rochdale or draw | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Draw no bet | Fleetwood Town | 72% | 4/11 |
| Rochdale | 28% | 11/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 10/11 |
| No | 48% | 21/20 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | 1/3 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 5/2 | |
| Result and BTTS | Fleetwood Town and yes | 24% | 10/3 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Rochdale and yes | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Result and goals | Fleetwood Town and over 2.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
| Rochdale and over 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |
| Fleetwood Town and under 2.5 | 21% | 4/1 | |
| Rochdale and under 2.5 | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Fleetwood Town / Fleetwood Town | 34% | 2/1 |
| Draw / Fleetwood Town | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Rochdale / Rochdale | 12% | 15/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 50% | evens |
| Over 4.5 | 33% | 2/1 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed doesn't include UK bookmaker prices for this match, as football-data.co.uk doesn't cover this competition.
Line-up predictions
Fleetwood Town 3-1-4-2
- Lynch, Jay.GK
- Mccann, Lewis.MID
- Batty, Jake.MID
- Bennett, Rhys.DEF
- Rooney, Shaun.DEF
- Potter, Finley.DEF
- Mclean, Crispin.MID
- Neal, Harrison.DEF
- Coughlan, Ronan.FWD
- Loupalo-Bi, Aaron.FWD
- Helm, Mark.MID
Started Sat 31 Oct against Bristol Rovers.
Rochdale 4-2-3-1
- Waller, Sam.GK
- Sherring, Sam.DEF
- Tasker, Charlie.DEF
- Gilmour, Harvey.MID
- Flint, Aden.DEF
- Wilson, Kaiden.DEF
- Hayes, Cian.MID
- Adeeko, Babajide.MID
- Brown, Dajaune.FWD
- Silcott-Duberry, Zain.MID
- Middleton, Glenn.MID
They started Sat 31 Oct at Port Vale.
For other clubs, ESPN supplies the eleven who started their most recent match. Once ESPN names the confirmed teams, about an hour before kick-off, they take the place of these.
Exact score chances
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When each side scores
Games count: Fleetwood Town, 18; Rochdale, 16. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected total 10.0 (Fleetwood Town 5.2, Rochdale 4.8; the league figure is 9.9).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.8 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Fleetwood Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Bristol Rvs | 3-1 | W |
| Tue 27 Oct | v Arsenal | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Exeter | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2-4 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Rotherham | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Walsall | 1-1 | D |
Read the scores with Fleetwood Town first.
Rochdale
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Port Vale | 2-4 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Accrington | 0-5 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Grimsby | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Crewe | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 3 Oct | v Swindon | 1-0 | W |
Read the scores with Rochdale first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 26 Sep 2026 | League Two | Fleetwood Town 1-2 Rochdale | 1-2 | 10 |