Derby County vs Watford prediction

Derby

15:00Saturday 28 November

Watford

Championship
Ground: Pride Park
UK TV: not live (Saturday blackout)

1-0predicted score (10%)

53%both teams score

50%over 2.5 goals

1.60-1.08expected goals

49%26%25%

The analysis we provide

Derby's Championship record shows 7 points from 14 matches, leaving them 23rd. Watford have 14 from 14 and sit 20th, 7 points clear.

Across their last 6 matches, Derby recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 15 conceded. Watford's last 6 show 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 13 conceded.

During the season, both teams scored in 57% of Derby games, while 57% finished above 2.5 goals. For Watford, the rates were 50% and 43%. Expected goals show Derby at 0.98 created and 1.95 allowed per game, compared with Watford's 1.01 created and 1.75 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results include 4 meetings: 0 Derby wins, 4 Watford wins and 0 draws. The most recent meeting ended Watford 2-0 Derby on Saturday 21 February 2026.

Based on expected goals, Derby 1.60 and Watford 1.08, our model gives a Derby win the highest chance at 49%, ahead of the draw at 26% and Watford 25%.

The predicted score is Derby County 1-0 Watford. One exact score stands out as most likely, 1-1 at 12.5%. Within the result we favor, 1-0 is the likeliest score.

Stats for Derby v Watford

Per game	Derby	Watford
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	0.60	1.20
Goals conceded a game	2.80	1.80
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	40%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Corners won / conceded	5.0 / 4.2	3.2 / 7.6
Yellow cards a game	2.4	3.2
xG for / against	0.99 / 2.25	1.22 / 1.74

Per game	Derby	Watford
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	0.79	0.93
Goals conceded a game	2.07	1.64
Both teams scored	57%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	43%
Clean sheets	7%	14%
Corners won / conceded	5.5 / 5.3	3.6 / 6.6
Yellow cards a game	2.4	2.8
xG for / against	0.98 / 1.95	1.01 / 1.75

Per game	Derby	Watford
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	0.57	0.57
Goals conceded a game	2.00	2.00
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	29%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.3 / 5.3	2.9 / 7.3
Yellow cards a game	2.0	2.9
xG for / against	1.00 / 1.85	0.86 / 2.01

Per game	Derby	Watford
Games	4	4
Goals scored a game	0.75	2.25
Goals conceded a game	2.25	0.75
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Corners won / conceded	4.2 / 4.2	4.2 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game	2.0	2.0

Market fair prices


Match result	Derby win	49%	21/20
	Draw	26%	14/5
	Watford win	25%	3/1
Double chance	Derby or draw	75%	1/3
	Watford or draw	51%	evens
Draw no bet	Derby	66%	1/2
	Watford	34%	2/1
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	10/11
	No	47%	11/10
Goals	Over 1.5	76%	1/3
	Over 2.5	50%	evens
	Under 2.5	50%	evens
	Over 3.5	28%	5/2
Result and BTTS	Derby and yes	22%	7/2
	Draw and yes	19%	9/2
	Watford and yes	12%	7/1
Result and goals	Derby and over 2.5	30%	12/5
	Watford and over 2.5	14%	6/1
	Derby and under 2.5	19%	9/2
	Watford and under 2.5	11%	17/2
Half time / full time	Derby / Derby	30%	23/10
	Draw / Derby	17%	5/1
	Draw / Draw	15%	11/2
	Watford / Watford	14%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	59%	4/6
	Over 10.5	48%	11/10
Cards	Over 3.5	61%	8/13
	Over 4.5	45%	5/4

Match result

Derby win

49%

21/20

Draw

26%

14/5

Watford win

25%

3/1

Double chance

Derby or draw

75%

1/3

Watford or draw

51%

evens

Draw no bet

Derby

66%

1/2

Watford

34%

2/1

Both teams to score

Yes

53%

10/11

47%

11/10

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

1/3

Over 2.5

50%

evens

Under 2.5

50%

evens

Over 3.5

28%

5/2

Result and BTTS

Derby and yes

22%

7/2

Draw and yes

19%

9/2

Watford and yes

12%

7/1

Result and goals

Derby and over 2.5

30%

12/5

Watford and over 2.5

14%

6/1

Derby and under 2.5

19%

9/2

Watford and under 2.5

11%

17/2

Half time / full time

Derby / Derby

30%

23/10

Draw / Derby

17%

5/1

Draw / Draw

15%

11/2

Watford / Watford

14%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

59%

4/6

Over 10.5

48%

11/10

Cards

Over 3.5

61%

8/13

Over 4.5

45%

5/4

A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.

Line-up predictions

Derby 4-4-2

Widell Zetterström, Jacob.GK
Gordon, Isaac.DEF
Johnston, Max.DEF
Mowatt, Alex.MID
Nyambe, Ryan.DEF
Sanderson, Dion.DEF
Szmodics, Sammie.MID
Fraulo, Oscar.MID
Morris, Carlton.FWD
Meister, Henrik.FWD
Clark, Bobby.MID

Started on Tue 3 Nov against Norwich City.

Watford 4-2-3-1

Ravaglia, Federico.GK
Omar-Haktab TraoréDEF
Bola, Marc.DEF
Kyprianou, Hector.MID
Pollock, Matthew.DEF
Keben, Kévin.DEF
Othmane MaammaMID
Kayembe, Edo.MID
Boadu, Myron.FWD
Bravo, Iker.MID
Mavididi, Stephy.MID

Started Tue 3 Nov against Lincoln City.

Exact score chances

Each score's chance in %, with Derby goals down the side and Watford goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7.6	6.7	4.0	1.4	0.4	0.1
1	10.3	12.5	6.4	2.3	0.6	0.1
2	8.8	9.5	5.1	1.8	0.5	0.1
3	4.7	5.1	2.7	1.0	0.3	0.1
4	1.9	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0
5	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Watford, 16 games. Derby, 15 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 10.6 total, with the league at 10.4 (Derby 5.8, Watford 4.8).
The expected total is 4.5 yellow cards (league 3.7).

Latest form

Derby County

Derby's last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Norwich	0-4	L
Sat 31 Oct	at Millwall	1-4	L
Sat 24 Oct	at Sheffield United	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Stoke	0-1	L
Wed 14 Oct	at QPR	1-4	L
Sat 10 Oct	v Wrexham	1-1	D

Derby appears first in the scores.

Watford

Watford's last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Lincoln	1-0	W
Sat 31 Oct	at Norwich	2-3	L
Sat 24 Oct	at Wolves	0-1	L
Sat 17 Oct	v Charlton	2-0	W
Tue 13 Oct	at Cardiff	1-5	L
Sat 10 Oct	v Burnley	0-4	L

Watford appears first in the scores.

Head to head


Sat 21 Feb 2026	Championship	Watford 2-0 Derby	1-0	4
Sat 22 Nov 2025	Championship	Derby 2-3 Watford	1-0	12
Sat 18 Jan 2025	Championship	Derby 0-2 Watford	0-1	12
Sat 24 Aug 2024	Championship	Watford 2-1 Derby	1-1	6

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
18	Cardiff City	14	3	6	5	-1	15
19	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	-10	15
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby County	14	1	4	9	-18	7
24	Preston North End	14	1	2	11	-18	5