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Derby County vs Norwich City prediction

Derby County crestDerby
0-4full time, Tue 3 Nov
Norwich CityNorwich City crest
1-2predicted score (9%)
61%both teams score
58%over 2.5 goals
1.43-1.58expected goals

After removing the margin, the average across 6 UK bookmakers gives Derby 28%, draw 26% and Norwich City 47%.

The model's view of it

Derby have 7 points from 14 games and sit 23rd in the Championship. Norwich City have 18 points from 14 games and sit 12th, 11 points ahead.

Derby's last 6 brought 0 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, with 5 scored and 12 conceded. Their last 6 show 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats for Norwich City, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.

Across the season, 62% of Derby games saw both teams score and 54% saw more than 2.5 goals; Norwich City figures are 69% and 77%. Derby's expected goals are 1.00 a game, with 1.91 allowed; Norwich City sit at 1.41 created and 1.45 allowed.

Since August 2024, our results cover 4 meetings: Derby won 1, Norwich City took 2 wins and 1 was level. The most recent meeting, on Tuesday 21 April 2026, ended Norwich 2-1 Derby.

The likeliest outcome in the model is a Norwich City win at 41% (Derby 34%, the draw 26%), based on Derby at 1.43 expected goals and Norwich City at 1.58. Once the margin is removed, UK bookmakers put it at 47%, which is higher than our own figure.

The scoreline we forecast is Derby County 1-2 Norwich City. At 11.8%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score; for the result we favor, 1-2 is the likeliest score.

Stats for Derby v Norwich City

Per gameDerby County crestDerbyNorwich City crestNorwich City
Games55
Goals scored a game0.801.40
Goals conceded a game2.201.40
Both teams scored80%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%
Clean sheets0%0%
Corners won / conceded4.4 / 4.84.8 / 2.4
Yellow cards a game2.81.8
xG for / against0.97 / 2.060.98 / 1.53

Best UK odds and fair prices

Match resultDerby win34%2/15/2 bet365+18.6%
Draw26%3/111/4 Betway-4.3%
Norwich City win41%6/421/20 Betway-16.8%
Double chanceDerby or draw59%4/6
Norwich City or draw66%1/2
Draw no betDerby46%6/5
Norwich City54%5/6
Both teams to scoreYes61%8/13
No39%13/8
GoalsOver 1.581%1/4
Over 2.558%8/118/11 bet365+0.1%
Under 2.542%11/811/10 bet365-11.5%
Over 3.535%15/8
Result and BTTSDerby and yes19%9/2
Draw and yes20%4/1
Norwich City and yes22%7/2
Result and goalsDerby and over 2.522%7/2
Norwich City and over 2.527%11/4
Derby and under 2.511%8/1
Norwich City and under 2.513%13/2
Half time / full timeNorwich City / Norwich City25%3/1
Derby / Derby20%4/1
Draw / Norwich City14%6/1
Draw / Draw14%13/2
CornersOver 9.549%21/20
Over 10.538%13/8
CardsOver 3.564%4/7
Over 4.547%11/10

Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. The prices come from football-data.co.uk. It carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 only; edge appears where we have both numbers.

The starting line-ups

Derby County crestDerby 4-4-2

  1. Widell Zetterström, Jacob.GK
  2. Gordon, Isaac.DEF
  3. Johnston, Max.DEF
  4. Mowatt, Alex.MID
  5. Nyambe, Ryan.DEF
  6. Sanderson, Dion.DEF
  7. Szmodics, Sammie.MID
  8. Fraulo, Oscar.MID
  9. Morris, Carlton.FWD
  10. Meister, Henrik.FWD
  11. Clark, Bobby.MID

Norwich City crestNorwich City 4-2-3-1

  1. Grimshaw, Daniel.GK
  2. Stacey, Jack.DEF
  3. Darlin YongwaDEF
  4. Wright, Jacob.MID
  5. McConville, Ruairi.DEF
  6. Harry DarlingDEF
  7. Brooks, Andre.MID
  8. Field, Sam.MID
  9. Kvistgaarden, Mathias.FWD
  10. Paris MaghomaMID
  11. Musaba, Anthony.MID

Starting elevens come from ESPN. They were read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.

Score probabilities

Each score's chance in %, with Derby goals down the side and Norwich City goals across
012345
05.67.16.23.21.30.4
16.411.88.84.61.80.6
25.08.06.33.31.30.4
32.43.83.01.60.60.2
40.91.41.10.60.20.1
50.20.40.30.20.10.0

Scoring times

181-153616-302531-452346-601861-753376-90

For Derby, 15 games; for Norwich City, 17 games. ESPN match events this season show goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Form guide

Derby County crestDerby County

Derby, last 6 matches
Result
Sat 31 Octat Millwall1-4L
Sat 24 Octat Sheffield United1-1D
Sat 17 Octv Stoke0-1L
Wed 14 Octat QPR1-4L
Sat 10 Octv Wrexham1-1D
Sat 19 Sepat Burnley1-1D

Derby is listed first in the scorelines.

Norwich City crestNorwich City

Norwich City, last 6 matches
Result
Sat 31 Octv Watford3-2W
Sat 24 Octat Charlton3-1W
Sat 17 Octv Portsmouth0-1L
Wed 14 Octv Southampton0-1L
Sat 10 Octat Swansea1-2L
Sun 20 Sepv Bolton3-4L

Norwich City is listed first in the scorelines.

Head to head

Tue 21 Apr 2026ChampionshipNorwich 2-1 Derby1-07
Tue 21 Oct 2025ChampionshipDerby 1-0 Norwich0-018
Sat 8 Feb 2025ChampionshipNorwich 1-1 Derby0-06
Sat 28 Sep 2024ChampionshipDerby 2-3 Norwich0-114

Championship table

PosClubPWDLGDPts
10Portsmouth crestPortsmouth14644+322
11Queens Park Rangers crestQueens Park Rangers14563+521
12Norwich City crestNorwich City14608+318
13Millwall crestMillwall14536-118
14Blackburn Rovers crestBlackburn Rovers14536-218
21Charlton Athletic crestCharlton Athletic14356-1114
22Burnley crestBurnley14176-810
23Derby County crestDerby County14149-187
24Preston North End crestPreston North End141211-185

The standings come from ESPN and are as of Wednesday 4 November.

Other Championship predictions