Crewe Alexandra vs Barnet prediction

Crewe

1-1full time, Sat 31 Oct

Barnet

League Two
Mornflake Stadium is the venue.
Referee H Blair, 3.9 cards per game in 23.
Not live on UK TV (Saturday blackout).

Scorer for Crewe: Michael Williams 85'.
Scorer for Barnet: Tom Knowles 34'.

1-2predicted score (9%)

58%both teams score

54%over 2.5 goals

1.33-1.49expected goals

33%26%40%

Across 6 UK bookmakers, the average market prices, once the margin is removed, give Crewe 32%, a draw 26% and Barnet 43%.

The model's assessment

In League Two, Crewe sit 4th, earning 22 points from 14 games. Barnet sit 2nd on 26 points from 13 games, 4 points ahead.

Across their last 6, Crewe recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Across their last 6, Barnet recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 13 and conceding 8.

Crewe saw both teams score in 62% of games and go past 2.5 goals in 31% this season; Barnet recorded 100% and 83%. Expected goals per game put Crewe at 1.09 created and 1.32 allowed. Barnet sit at 1.82 created and 1.34 allowed.

Our results show 2 meetings since August 2024: 0 wins for Crewe, 1 for Barnet and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, on Tuesday 3 February 2026, ended Barnet 1-1 Crewe.

The model rates a Barnet win as the likeliest result at 40%, with Crewe 33% and the draw 26%. Expected goals come out at 1.33 for Crewe and 1.49 for Barnet. After taking out the margin, UK bookmakers price this at 43%, higher than our own rate.

Prediction: Crewe Alexandra 1-2 Barnet. Among exact scores, 1-1 ranks first at 12.5%. For the result we favor, 1-2 is the leading score.

Crewe v Barnet statistics

Per game	Crewe	Barnet
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.60	2.00
Goals conceded a game	2.00	1.40
Both teams scored	60%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	80%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Corners won / conceded	3.2 / 4.6	7.4 / 4.0
Yellow cards a game	1.4	2.2
xG for / against	1.09 / 1.20	2.11 / 1.53

Per game	Crewe	Barnet
Games	13	12
Goals scored a game	1.23	2.25
Goals conceded a game	1.23	1.42
Both teams scored	62%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	31%	83%
Clean sheets	31%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.6 / 4.8	7.0 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game	1.6	2.0
xG for / against	1.09 / 1.32	1.82 / 1.34

Per game	Crewe	Barnet
Games	6	5
Goals scored a game	1.83	2.40
Goals conceded a game	1.17	1.40
Both teams scored	83%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	80%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Corners won / conceded	5.2 / 6.7	5.4 / 4.2
Yellow cards a game	1.5	2.2
xG for / against	1.22 / 1.55	1.68 / 1.47

Per game	Crewe	Barnet
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.50
Goals conceded a game	1.50	1.00
Both teams scored	100%	100%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	3.5 / 7.0	7.0 / 3.5
Yellow cards a game	1.5	2.0

Fair pricing and best UK odds


Match result	Crewe win	33%	2/1	2/1 bet365	-0.6%
	Draw	26%	11/4	11/4 Paddy Power	-0.7%
	Barnet win	40%	6/4	6/5 BetVictor	-11.1%
Double chance	Crewe or draw	60%	4/6
	Barnet or draw	67%	1/2
Draw no bet	Crewe	45%	6/5
	Barnet	55%	5/6
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	8/11
	No	42%	11/8
Goals	Over 1.5	78%	2/7
	Over 2.5	54%	5/6	8/13 bet365	-14.2%
	Under 2.5	46%	6/5	5/4 bet365	+6.6%
	Over 3.5	31%	9/4
Result and BTTS	Crewe and yes	17%	5/1
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	Barnet and yes	21%	4/1
Result and goals	Crewe and over 2.5	21%	4/1
	Barnet and over 2.5	26%	3/1
	Crewe and under 2.5	12%	7/1
	Barnet and under 2.5	15%	6/1
Half time / full time	Barnet / Barnet	24%	3/1
	Crewe / Crewe	20%	4/1
	Draw / Draw	15%	6/1
	Draw / Barnet	14%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	53%	10/11
	Over 10.5	42%	11/8
Cards	Over 3.5	47%	11/10
	Over 4.5	31%	9/4

Match result

Crewe win

33%

2/1

2/1 bet365

-0.6%

Draw

26%

11/4

11/4 Paddy Power

-0.7%

Barnet win

40%

6/4

6/5 BetVictor

-11.1%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

60%

4/6

Barnet or draw

67%

1/2

Draw no bet

Crewe

45%

6/5

Barnet

55%

5/6

Both teams to score

Yes

58%

8/11

42%

11/8

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

2/7

Over 2.5

54%

5/6

8/13 bet365

-14.2%

Under 2.5

46%

6/5

5/4 bet365

+6.6%

Over 3.5

31%

9/4

Result and BTTS

Crewe and yes

17%

5/1

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

Barnet and yes

21%

4/1

Result and goals

Crewe and over 2.5

21%

4/1

Barnet and over 2.5

26%

3/1

Crewe and under 2.5

12%

7/1

Barnet and under 2.5

15%

6/1

Half time / full time

Barnet / Barnet

24%

3/1

Crewe / Crewe

20%

4/1

Draw / Draw

15%

6/1

Draw / Barnet

14%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

53%

10/11

Over 10.5

42%

11/8

Cards

Over 3.5

47%

11/10

Over 4.5

31%

9/4

To find a fair price, divide 1 by our chance. We take bookmaker prices from football-data.co.uk. It lists match odds, plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears where both numbers are available.

Players set to start

Crewe 4-2-3-1

Lawlor, Ian.GK
Billington, Lewis.DEF
Hutchinson, Reece.DEF
Thomas, Conor.MID
Offord, Luke.DEF
Stephenson, Joshua.DEF
March, Josh.MID
Holícek, Matús.MID
McNeill, Charlie.FWD
Tabiner, Joel.MID
Gibson, Jordan.MID

Barnet 4-3-3

Cox, Matthew.GK
Senior, Adam.DEF
Crichlow-Noble, Romoney.DEF
Gallagher, Oisin.FWD
Collinge, Danny.DEF
Tavares, Nikola.DEF
Comley, Brandon.MID
Ofoborh, Nnamdi.MID
Tshimanga, Kabongo.FWD
Knowles, Tom.MID
Lakin, Charlie.FWD

ESPN supplied the starting elevens, and we read them Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.

Chances for correct scores

Chance of each score in %; down the side are Crewe goals, across are Barnet goals.
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6.6	8.1	6.6	3.3	1.2	0.4
1	7.2	12.5	8.8	4.4	1.6	0.5
2	5.3	7.9	5.9	2.9	1.1	0.3
3	2.3	3.5	2.6	1.3	0.5	0.1
4	0.8	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0
5	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Crewe, 16 games covered. Barnet, 14 games. This season's goals by minute, taken from ESPN match events.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 10.0 in total (Crewe 4.4 and Barnet 5.7, against a league average of 9.9).
Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with the league at 3.7 and referee adjustment applied.

Latest form

Crewe Alexandra

Crewe's last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	at Chesterfield	1-5	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Exeter	0-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	v Rochdale	3-2	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Swindon	1-0	W
Sat 3 Oct	v Bristol Rvs	3-1	W
Sat 26 Sep	at Rotherham	1-1	D