Colchester United vs Walsall prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Colchester 36%, draw 27% and Walsall 37% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view
In the League Two standings, Colchester are 23rd, earning 12 points from 13 games. Walsall sit 3rd with 22 points from 13, 10 points ahead.
Across their last 6 matches, Colchester took 0 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, with 4 scored and 7 conceded. Walsall's recent 6 matches gave them 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded.
So far this season, both teams scored in 58% of Colchester games, while 33% had over 2.5 goals. For Walsall, those rates are 50% and 42%. Colchester generate 1.05 expected goals per game and give up 1.42; Walsall generate 1.51 and give up 1.51.
Since August 2024, our results show 4 meetings: 2 Colchester wins, 1 Walsall win and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, Saturday 28 March 2026, ended Colchester 1-1 Walsall.
The model puts a Colchester win first at 39%, with the draw 29% and Walsall 32%. Its expected goals are 1.26 for Colchester against 1.12 for Walsall. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers put it at 36%, so our rating is higher than the market's.
Score prediction: Colchester United 1-0 Walsall. At 13.9%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score; 1-0 leads the scorelines within the outcome we favour.
Stats for Colchester v Walsall
| Per game |  Colchester |  Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.4 / 5.8 | 6.0 / 4.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 0.91 / 1.28 | 1.45 / 1.87 |
| Per game | Colchester | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.92 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 0.92 |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 5.2 | 6.4 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.05 / 1.42 | 1.51 / 1.51 |
| Per game | Colchester | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 3.8 | 6.2 / 5.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.26 / 0.68 | 1.36 / 1.71 |
| Per game | Colchester | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.2 | 1.5 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Colchester win | 39% | 13/8 | 13/8 Betway | +2.6% |
| Draw | 29% | 5/2 | 5/2 bet365 | +5.5% | |
| Walsall win | 32% | 9/4 | 13/8 BetVictor | -16.9% | |
| Double chance | Colchester or draw | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Walsall or draw | 61% | 8/13 | |||
| Draw no bet | Colchester | 55% | 5/6 | ||
| Walsall | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 21/20 | ||
| No | 51% | evens | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 69% | 4/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | 4/5 bet365 | -23.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 8/11 | evens bet365 | +15.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 7/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Colchester and yes | 16% | 5/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Walsall and yes | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Colchester and over 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Walsall and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Colchester and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Walsall and under 2.5 | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Colchester / Colchester | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| Walsall / Walsall | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Colchester | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 59% | 4/6 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 48% | 21/20 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 48% | 11/10 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk, which has match odds and only over/under 2.5; edge shows where we have both numbers.
Who starts the match
Colchester 4-2-3-1
- Lo-Tutala, Thimothee.GK
- Vincent-Young, Kane.DEF
- Iandolo, Ellis.DEF
- Digby, Paul.MID
- Tucker, Jack.DEF
- Raggett, Sean.DEF
- Thorn, Oscar.MID
- Williams, Jay.MID
- Chiwome, Leon.FWD
- Payne, Jack.MID
- Sesay, Moses.MID
Walsall 4-2-3-1
- Ward, Jed.GK
- Ahui, Elicha.DEF
- Hancock, Mason.DEF
- Moore, Isaac.MID
- Skura, Declan.DEF
- Connolly, James.DEF
- Simper, Lewis.MID
- Crew, Charlie.MID
- Pressley, Aaron.FWD
- Sodje, Tai.MID
- Smith, Reece.MID
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Walsall, 15 games, compared with 14 for Colchester. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners: 10.6 total, Colchester 5.0 and Walsall 5.6, compared with a league average of 9.9
- Referee adjustments put expected yellow cards at 3.7, equal to the league figure of 3.7
Form in recent matches
Colchester United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Northampton | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Chesterfield | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Exeter | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Newport County | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Cheltenham | 1-1 | D |
For each score, Colchester comes first
Walsall
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct | v Salford | 2-4 | L |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Oldham | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Swindon | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | at Tranmere | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Port Vale | 2-0 | W |
For each score, Walsall comes first
Head to head
| Sat 28 Mar 2026 | League Two | Colchester 1-1 Walsall | 0-0 | 17 |
| Sat 15 Nov 2025 | League Two | Walsall 0-2 Colchester | 0-2 | 6 |
| Sat 8 Feb 2025 | League Two | Colchester 2-1 Walsall | 0-0 | 7 |
| Sat 28 Sep 2024 | League Two | Walsall 4-0 Colchester | 1-0 | 10 |
League Two standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | +0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 21 |  Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
The table comes from ESPN and is current as of Wednesday 4 November
Other League Two predictions
- Exeter v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov 12:30
- Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Crewe v NewportSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Port Vale v AccringtonSat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rochdale v York CitySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Rotherham v CrawleySat 14 Nov 15:00
- Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov 15:00