Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Charlton 42%, draw 27%, Bolton 31% (an average across 6 UK bookmakers).
What the model found
In the Championship, Charlton sit 21st on 14 points from 14 games. Bolton sit 16th on 17 points from 14 games, 3 points ahead.
Charlton's last 6 games: 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, with 5 scored and 14 conceded. Bolton's last 6 show 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 11 goals scored and 14 conceded.
This season, 54% of Charlton's games saw both teams score and 54% finished with more than 2.5 goals. For Bolton, the numbers are 62% and 69%. Charlton create 0.94 expected goals a game and allow 1.57. Bolton's figures are 1.36 created and 2.01 allowed.
Our results include 2 meetings since August 2024: 2 wins for Charlton, 0 for Bolton and 0 draws. The most recent, on Tuesday 21 January 2025, ended Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
A Charlton win is the likeliest result the model gives, at 43% (the draw 27%, Bolton 30%), and it builds that from expected goals: 1.47 for Charlton, 1.18 for Bolton. Take the margin out and UK bookmakers put it at 42%, near our number.
Our call: Charlton Athletic 1-0 Bolton Wanderers. For exact scores, 1-1 is the likeliest single one at 13.0%. Within the result we lean to, 1-0 is the likeliest score.
Charlton vs Bolton numbers
| Per game |  Charlton |  Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.2 | 5.8 / 6.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.25 / 1.76 | 1.71 / 2.53 |
| Per game | Charlton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.85 | 1.38 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.62 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 69% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.3 | 5.5 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 0.94 / 1.57 | 1.36 / 2.01 |
| Per game | Charlton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.3 / 6.2 | 4.0 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 0.93 / 1.11 | 1.25 / 1.96 |
| Per game | Charlton | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.5 | 3.0 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Charlton win | 43% | 11/8 | 6/5 bet365 | -5.2% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 5/2 BetVictor | -4.8% | |
| Bolton win | 30% | 9/4 | 2/1 bet365 | -7.8% | |
| Double chance | Charlton or draw | 70% | 4/9 | ||
| Bolton or draw | 57% | 8/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Charlton | 59% | 4/6 | ||
| Bolton | 41% | 6/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 | ||
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 75% | 1/3 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 50% | evens | 8/11 bet365 | -14.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | evens | 11/10 bet365 | +5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 5/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Charlton and yes | 20% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 4/1 | |||
| Bolton and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Charlton and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | ||
| Bolton and over 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Charlton and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Bolton and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Charlton / Charlton | 26% | 11/4 | ||
| Bolton / Bolton | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Charlton | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 64% | 4/7 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 54% | 5/6 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 37% | 13/8 |
Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices and lists match odds with over/under 2.5 only. The edge shows where both numbers are available.
The starting line-ups for both teams
Charlton 4-2-3-1
- Mannion, William.GK
- McNamara, Dan.DEF
- Bell, Amari'i.DEF
- Coventry, Conor.MID
- Jones, Lloyd.DEF
- Koumetio, Billy.DEF
- Knibbs, Harvey.MID
- Chalobah, Nathaniel.MID
- Kelman, Charlie.FWD
- Grant, Karlan.MID
- Campbell, Tyreece.MID
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- Bonham, Jack.GK
- Stephenson, Luca.DEF
- Conway, Max.DEF
- Sheehan, Josh.MID
- Forino Joseph, Christian.DEF
- Famewo, Akin.DEF
- Iling-Junior, Samuel.MID
- Simons, Xavier.MID
- Dalby, Sam.FWD
- Ito, Atsuki.MID
- Lott, Max.MID
For the starting elevens, ESPN was read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Games covered include Charlton, 16 and Bolton, 15. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Expected corners reach 11.1 overall, with league 10.5, Bolton 6.3 and Charlton 4.8.
- Yellow cards expected 4.0 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Charlton Athletic
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Norwich | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Watford | 0-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Burnley | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Bristol City | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Cardiff | 1-3 | L |
Charlton is listed first in the scores.
Bolton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Bristol City | 2-3 | L |
| Fri 23 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Southampton | 0-0 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Wolves | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Stoke | 1-2 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Norwich | 4-3 | W |
Bolton is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 21 Jan 2025 | League One | Bolton 1-2 Charlton | 0-0 | 10 |
| Sat 24 Aug 2024 | League One | Charlton 2-0 Bolton | 1-0 | 6 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |  Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 | Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.