Cardiff City vs Preston North End prediction

Cardiff

19:45Tuesday 24 November

Preston

Championship
Cardiff City Stadium is the venue.

2-1predicted score (10%)

62%both teams score

63%over 2.5 goals

1.98-1.27expected goals

53%23%24%

Our assessment

18th in the Championship, Cardiff have taken 15 points from 14 games. Preston, in 24th, have 5 from 14 and trail by 10 points.

Cardiff managed 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Preston managed 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats in their last 6, scoring 4 and conceding 15.

So far this season, 71% of Cardiff games saw both teams score and 64% went past 2.5 goals; Preston sit at 64% and 64%. Cardiff's expected goals run at 1.80 a game with 1.73 allowed; Preston manage 1.14 and give up 1.57.

Since August 2024, our results show 2 meetings, with 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for Preston and 1 draw. Their most recent meeting, on Tuesday 8 April 2025, ended Preston 2-2 Cardiff.

A Cardiff win is the likeliest result in our model at 53%, with the draw on 23% and Preston 24%. The expected goals behind it are 1.98 and 1.27.

Our prediction is Cardiff City 2-1 Preston North End. The likeliest exact score on its own is 1-1 at 10.3%, and 2-1 is the likeliest score within the result we favour.

Stats for Cardiff and Preston

Per game	Cardiff	Preston
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.20	0.80
Goals conceded a game	1.80	2.80
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.4 / 4.8	4.2 / 7.0
Yellow cards a game	1.4	2.2
xG for / against	1.91 / 1.89	0.82 / 2.03

Per game	Cardiff	Preston
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	1.57	0.86
Goals conceded a game	1.64	2.14
Both teams scored	71%	64%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%
Clean sheets	7%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.5 / 4.9	4.8 / 5.9
Yellow cards a game	1.7	2.2
xG for / against	1.80 / 1.73	1.14 / 1.57

Per game	Cardiff	Preston
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	2.29	0.71
Goals conceded a game	1.29	2.43
Both teams scored	86%	57%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	71%
Clean sheets	14%	0%
Corners won / conceded	6.9 / 3.9	3.6 / 6.6
Yellow cards a game	1.4	2.4
xG for / against	2.39 / 1.51	1.03 / 1.67

Per game	Cardiff	Preston
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.00	2.00
Goals conceded a game	2.00	1.00
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Corners won / conceded	6.5 / 3.0	3.0 / 6.5
Yellow cards a game	2.0	2.5

What the fair prices are by market


Match result	Cardiff win	53%	10/11
	Draw	23%	10/3
	Preston win	24%	16/5
Double chance	Cardiff or draw	76%	3/10
	Preston or draw	47%	11/10
Draw no bet	Cardiff	69%	4/9
	Preston	31%	9/4
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	8/13
	No	38%	17/10
Goals	Over 1.5	84%	2/11
	Over 2.5	63%	4/7
	Under 2.5	37%	17/10
	Over 3.5	41%	6/4
Result and BTTS	Cardiff and yes	30%	12/5
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Preston and yes	14%	6/1
Result and goals	Cardiff and over 2.5	39%	8/5
	Preston and over 2.5	16%	5/1
	Cardiff and under 2.5	15%	6/1
	Preston and under 2.5	7%	12/1
Half time / full time	Cardiff / Cardiff	34%	2/1
	Draw / Cardiff	17%	5/1
	Preston / Preston	14%	13/2
	Draw / Draw	12%	15/2
Corners	Over 9.5	64%	4/7
	Over 10.5	54%	5/6
Cards	Over 3.5	45%	5/4
	Over 4.5	29%	5/2

Match result

Cardiff win

53%

10/11

Draw

23%

10/3

Preston win

24%

16/5

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

76%

3/10

Preston or draw

47%

11/10

Draw no bet

Cardiff

69%

4/9

Preston

31%

9/4

Both teams to score

Yes

62%

8/13

38%

17/10

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

2/11

Over 2.5

63%

4/7

Under 2.5

37%

17/10

Over 3.5

41%

6/4

Result and BTTS

Cardiff and yes

30%

12/5

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Preston and yes

14%

6/1

Result and goals

Cardiff and over 2.5

39%

8/5

Preston and over 2.5

16%

5/1

Cardiff and under 2.5

15%

6/1

Preston and under 2.5

12/1

Half time / full time

Cardiff / Cardiff

34%

2/1

Draw / Cardiff

17%

5/1

Preston / Preston

14%

13/2

Draw / Draw

12%

15/2

Corners

Over 9.5

64%

4/7

Over 10.5

54%

5/6

Cards

Over 3.5

45%

5/4

Over 4.5

29%

5/2

A fair price is 1 divided by our chance.

The line-ups we expect

Cardiff 4-1-4-1

Trott, Nathan.GK
Ng, Perry.DEF
Scanlon, Calum.DEF
Robertson, Alex.MID
Fish, William.DEF
Bagan, Joel.DEF
Tanner, Ollie.MID
Moylan, Jack.MID
Salech, Yousef.FWD
Colwill, Rubin.MID
Willock, Chris.MID

They started against West Ham on Wed 4 Nov.

Preston 3-4-1-2

Iversen, Daniel.GK
Mills, Stanley.MID
Vukcevic, Andrija.MID
Hughes, Andrew.DEF
Storey, Jordan.DEF
Offiah, Odeluga.DEF
Leroy, Leo.MID
Thompson, Jordan.MID
Moran, Andy.MID
Kenny, Johnny.FWD
Erabi, Jusef.FWD

Started against Sheff Utd on Tue 3 Nov.

The chances of each correct score

Each score's chance in %, with Cardiff goals down the side and Preston goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4.5	4.3	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	7.1	10.3	6.2	2.6	0.8	0.2
2	7.6	9.7	6.1	2.6	0.8	0.2
3	5.0	6.4	4.0	1.7	0.5	0.1
4	2.5	3.2	2.0	0.8	0.3	0.1
5	1.0	1.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0

When each team scores

Games played: Cardiff, 16; Preston, 16.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 11.1 in total, with Cardiff 6.3 and Preston 4.8; the league figure is 10.4.
Expected yellow cards: 3.5 (league 3.7).

Form of late

Cardiff City

Last 6 for Cardiff
			Result
Wed 4 Nov	v West Ham	3-3	D
Sat 31 Oct	at Wolves	0-3	L
Sat 24 Oct	v Birmingham	1-0	W
Sat 17 Oct	at Middlesbrough	2-2	D
Tue 13 Oct	v Watford	5-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Blackburn	1-2	L

Scores list Cardiff first.

Preston North End

Last 6 for Preston
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Sheffield United	2-3	L
Sat 31 Oct	at Stoke	0-2	L
Sat 24 Oct	v West Brom	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	at Wrexham	1-4	L
Tue 13 Oct	at Birmingham	0-4	L
Sat 10 Oct	v Millwall	0-1	L

Scores list Preston first.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Tue 8 Apr 2025	Championship	Preston 2-2 Cardiff	1-0	10
Wed 11 Dec 2024	Championship	Cardiff 0-2 Preston	0-0	9

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Bolton Wanderers	14	5	2	7	-7	17
18	Cardiff City	14	3	6	5	-1	15
19	Lincoln City	14	4	3	7	-10	15
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby County	14	1	4	9	-18	7
24	Preston North End	14	1	2	11	-18	5