Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction
Once the margin comes out, Burnley are on 45%, the draw 27%, Portsmouth 28%, with each number averaged across 6 UK bookmakers.
What the model found
Burnley sit 22nd in the Championship on 10 points across 14 games played. Portsmouth are 10th in the table with 22 points from 14 games, 12 points ahead.
Burnley's last 6 gave them 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats, 10 goals for and 12 against Portsmouth's last 6 show 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 9 scored and 7 against
Burnley saw both teams score in 92% of games this season, with 75% going over 2.5 goals. Portsmouth's figures are 58% and 50% Burnley's expected goals are 1.29 created per game and 1.63 allowed. Portsmouth's are 1.31 created and 1.14 allowed
Our results since August 2024 cover 2 meetings: Burnley took 1 win, Portsmouth 0 and 1 game ended level The most recent meeting ended Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley on Saturday 1 February 2025
With expected goals at 1.55 for Burnley and 1.05 for Portsmouth, the model gives a Burnley win the highest chance at 48%. The draw stands at 27% and Portsmouth 25%. After taking out their margin, UK bookmakers price it at 45%, so our rating is higher than the market
We forecast a 1-0 win for Burnley against Portsmouth. Of all exact scores, 1-1 has the highest chance at 12.8%. For the result we favor, 1-0 is the most likely score.
Stats for Burnley v Portsmouth
| Per game |  Burnley |  Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.4 | 4.4 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.39 / 1.69 | 1.21 / 1.06 |
| Per game | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.42 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.08 | 1.25 |
| Both teams scored | 92% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.7 / 4.6 | 5.9 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.29 / 1.63 | 1.31 / 1.14 |
| Per game | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.8 / 5.7 | 4.2 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 0.96 / 1.55 | 1.01 / 1.03 |
| Per game | Burnley | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.5 / 2.5 | 2.5 / 3.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Burnley win | 48% | 21/20 | 11/10 BetVictor | +1.2% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 5/2 Betway | -3.4% | |
| Portsmouth win | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -15.1% | |
| Double chance | Burnley or draw | 75% | 1/3 | ||
| Portsmouth or draw | 52% | 10/11 | |||
| Draw no bet | Burnley | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| Portsmouth | 34% | 15/8 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 10/11 | ||
| No | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 | 10/11 bet365 | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | 10/11 bet365 | -0.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Burnley and yes | 21% | 7/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |||
| Portsmouth and yes | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Burnley and over 2.5 | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Portsmouth and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Burnley and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Portsmouth and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Burnley / Burnley | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Draw / Burnley | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Portsmouth / Portsmouth | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53% | 10/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 50% | evens |
The fair price comes from dividing 1 by the chance we give. The listed bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It has match odds and only over/under 2.5 figures. Edge is shown where both numbers are available.
The starting elevens
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- Coudert, Grégoire.GK
- Walker, Kyle.DEF
- Pires, Lucas.DEF
- Hatate, Reo.MID
- Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
- Julio, Igor.DEF
- Edwards, Marcus.MID
- Hountondji, Andreas.MID
- Vardy, Jamie.FWD
- Laurent, Josh.MID
- Ramazani, Largie.MID
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
- Schmid, Nicolas.GK
- Swanson, Zak.DEF
- Meghoma, Jayden.DEF
- Mohamed, Iyad.MID
- Poole, Regan.DEF
- Dia, Madiodio.DEF
- Kamara, Abu.MID
- Pack, Marlon.MID
- Milovanovic, Marko.FWD
- Segecic, Adrian.MID
- Kavuma-Mcqueen, Ryan.MID
ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Burnley, 16 games; for Portsmouth, 15 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corners plus cards
- Expected corners: 10.1 total, with Burnley 5.1 and Portsmouth 5.0; the league sits at 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 4.8, adjusted for the referee, against 3.7 in the league.
Form from recent games
Burnley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1-4 | L |
| Fri 16 Oct | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Charlton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Watford | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Derby | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Swansea | 1-3 | L |
Burnley is listed first in the scores.
Portsmouth
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Millwall | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | at Wolves | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 14 Oct | v Sheffield United | 3-2 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | at Southampton | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Blackburn | 2-2 | D |
Portsmouth is listed first in the scores.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 1 Feb 2025 | Championship | Portsmouth 0-0 Burnley | 0-0 | 6 |
| Sat 21 Sep 2024 | Championship | Burnley 2-1 Portsmouth | 0-1 | 6 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Queens Park Rangers | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +5 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
ESPN provided the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.