Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers prediction

Burnley

12:00Sunday 22 November

Blackburn

Championship
The venue is Turf Moor

1-0predicted score (12%)

49%both teams score

46%over 2.5 goals

1.57-0.94expected goals

51%27%22%

The analysis we provide

In the Championship, Burnley hold 22nd place after taking 10 points from 14 games. Blackburn sit 14th in the table on 18 points from 14 games, 8 points clear.

Burnley's last 6 games brought 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 scored and 9 conceded. Blackburn won 3 and lost 3 of their last 6, drew 0, scored 8 and conceded 10.

This season, both teams scored in 86% of Burnley games, while 64% had more than 2.5 goals; Blackburn's rates were 71% and 79%. By expected goals, Burnley produce 1.25 per game and allow 1.54. Blackburn produce 1.04 and allow 1.79.

Since August 2024, the teams have met 2 times in our results, with 1 Burnley win, 0 Blackburn wins and 1 draw. The most recent meeting, Saturday 4 January 2025, ended Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.

The model gives Burnley a 51% chance of winning, compared with 27% for a draw and Blackburn 22%. Its expected goals are 1.57 for Burnley and 0.94 for Blackburn.

The predicted score gives Burnley 1 and Blackburn Rovers 0. At 12.7%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the favored result, 1-0 is the likeliest.

Stats for Burnley v Blackburn

Per game	Burnley	Blackburn
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.20
Goals conceded a game	1.80	1.80
Both teams scored	80%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Corners won / conceded	4.2 / 5.0	4.8 / 6.6
Yellow cards a game	1.6	2.0
xG for / against	1.32 / 1.62	0.94 / 2.34

Per game	Burnley	Blackburn
Games	14	14
Goals scored a game	1.29	1.43
Goals conceded a game	1.86	1.57
Both teams scored	86%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	64%	79%
Clean sheets	14%	21%
Corners won / conceded	4.4 / 4.6	5.9 / 5.6
Yellow cards a game	2.0	2.5
xG for / against	1.25 / 1.54	1.04 / 1.79

Per game	Burnley	Blackburn
Games	7	7
Goals scored a game	1.14	1.14
Goals conceded a game	1.43	1.86
Both teams scored	86%	57%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	71%
Clean sheets	14%	29%
Corners won / conceded	4.9 / 5.1	5.9 / 5.9
Yellow cards a game	2.1	2.1
xG for / against	1.09 / 1.37	0.61 / 2.30

Per game	Burnley	Blackburn
Games	2	2
Goals scored a game	1.00	0.50
Goals conceded a game	0.50	1.00
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Corners won / conceded	4.5 / 5.0	5.0 / 4.5
Yellow cards a game	3.0	4.0

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Burnley win	51%	10/11
	Draw	27%	11/4
	Blackburn win	22%	18/5
Double chance	Burnley or draw	78%	2/7
	Blackburn or draw	49%	21/20
Draw no bet	Burnley	70%	4/9
	Blackburn	30%	12/5
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	21/20
	No	51%	evens
Goals	Over 1.5	72%	2/5
	Over 2.5	46%	6/5
	Under 2.5	54%	5/6
	Over 3.5	25%	3/1
Result and BTTS	Burnley and yes	21%	18/5
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Blackburn and yes	10%	9/1
Result and goals	Burnley and over 2.5	29%	12/5
	Blackburn and over 2.5	11%	8/1
	Burnley and under 2.5	22%	7/2
	Blackburn and under 2.5	10%	17/2
Half time / full time	Burnley / Burnley	32%	11/5
	Draw / Burnley	18%	9/2
	Draw / Draw	16%	5/1
	Blackburn / Blackburn	12%	7/1
Corners	Over 9.5	53%	10/11
	Over 10.5	42%	11/8
Cards	Over 3.5	50%	evens
	Over 4.5	34%	2/1

Match result

Burnley win

51%

10/11

Draw

27%

11/4

Blackburn win

22%

18/5

Double chance

Burnley or draw

78%

2/7

Blackburn or draw

49%

21/20

Draw no bet

Burnley

70%

4/9

Blackburn

30%

12/5

Both teams to score

Yes

49%

21/20

51%

evens

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

2/5

Over 2.5

46%

6/5

Under 2.5

54%

5/6

Over 3.5

25%

3/1

Result and BTTS

Burnley and yes

21%

18/5

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Blackburn and yes

10%

9/1

Result and goals

Burnley and over 2.5

29%

12/5

Blackburn and over 2.5

11%

8/1

Burnley and under 2.5

22%

7/2

Blackburn and under 2.5

10%

17/2

Half time / full time

Burnley / Burnley

32%

11/5

Draw / Burnley

18%

9/2

Draw / Draw

16%

5/1

Blackburn / Blackburn

12%

7/1

Corners

Over 9.5

53%

10/11

Over 10.5

42%

11/8

Cards

Over 3.5

50%

evens

Over 4.5

34%

2/1

Our fair price is 1 divided by our chance.

Line-ups we predict

Burnley 4-2-3-1

Coudert, Grégoire.GK
Walker, Kyle.DEF
Pires, Lucas.DEF
Hatate, Reo.MID
Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
Julio, Igor.DEF
Hountondji, Andreas.MID
Laurent, Josh.MID
Vardy, Jamie.FWD
Edwards, Marcus.MID
Ramazani, Largie.MID

They started Tue 3 Nov at QPR.

Blackburn 4-2-3-1

Toth, Balazs.GK
Alebiousu, Ryan.DEF
Pickering, Harry.DEF
Montgomery, Kristi.MID
Carter, Hayden.DEF
McLoughlin, Sean.DEF
Fevrier, Jayden.MID
Morsy, Sam.MID
Gudjohnsen, Andri.FWD
Cantwell, Todd.MID
Afolayan, Oladapo.MID

They started Tue 3 Nov v Stoke.

Chances for each correct score

The percentage shows each score's chance, with Burnley goals down the side and Blackburn goals across.
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8.8	6.9	3.6	1.1	0.3	0.0
1	12.0	12.7	5.6	1.8	0.4	0.1
2	10.0	9.4	4.4	1.4	0.3	0.1
3	5.3	4.9	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.0
4	2.1	1.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
5	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

When the goals come

Games played: Burnley, 16. Blackburn, 16.

Corners plus cards

Expected corners: 10.1 overallBurnley 4.7 and Blackburn 5.3, against a league figure of 10.4
Yellow cards expected: 3.8 (league 3.7).

Form of late

Burnley

Burnley in the last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	at QPR	1-1	D
Sat 31 Oct	v Portsmouth	0-0	D
Sat 24 Oct	at Lincoln	1-4	L
Fri 16 Oct	v Wolves	1-2	L
Tue 13 Oct	v Charlton	2-2	D
Sat 10 Oct	at Watford	4-0	W

Read the scores with Burnley first.

Blackburn Rovers

Blackburn in the last 6
			Result
Tue 3 Nov	v Stoke	1-2	L
Sat 31 Oct	at Swansea	0-4	L
Sat 24 Oct	v Wrexham	2-0	W
Sat 17 Oct	at West Brom	2-3	L
Tue 13 Oct	at Bristol City	1-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	v Cardiff	2-1	W

Read the scores with Blackburn first.

Head to head

Date	Competition	Result	Half time	Corners
Sat 4 Jan 2025	Championship	Blackburn 0-1 Burnley	0-0	10
Sat 31 Aug 2024	Championship	Burnley 1-1 Blackburn	1-1	9

Championship standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
12	Norwich City	14	6	0	8	+3	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Blackburn Rovers	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14
21	Charlton Athletic	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby County	14	1	4	9	-18	7
24	Preston North End	14	1	2	11	-18	5