Burnley vs Birmingham City prediction
Analysis from our team
Burnley sit 22nd in the Championship, with 10 points banked from 14 games. Birmingham sit 3rd in the Championship on 26 points from 14 games, 16 points clear.
Burnley's last 6 games brought 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 scored and 9 conceded. Birmingham's last 6 games gave them 5 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 14 goals for and 2 against.
In 86% of Burnley's games this season both teams scored, and 64% went over 2.5 goals. Birmingham's figures are 57% and 71%. Expected goals per game: Burnley create 1.25 and allow 1.54, and Birmingham's figures are 1.70 created and 1.40 allowed.
The model works from expected goals, putting Burnley at 1.41 and Birmingham at 1.21. From those figures, a Burnley win is the likeliest result at 41%, with a draw at 28% and Birmingham 32%.
Our predicted score is Burnley 1-0 Birmingham City. Across all exact scores, 1-1 at 13.2% is the single likeliest, while the likeliest score in the result we lean to is 1-0.
Stats: Burnley v Birmingham
| Per game |  Burnley |  Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 1.62 | 1.59 / 1.52 |
| Per game | Burnley | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.86 | 0.93 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 4.6 | 5.4 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.25 / 1.54 | 1.70 / 1.40 |
| Per game | Burnley | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.9 / 5.1 | 5.7 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.09 / 1.37 | 1.83 / 1.35 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Burnley win | 41% | 6/4 |
| Draw | 28% | 13/5 | |
| Birmingham win | 32% | 11/5 | |
| Double chance | Burnley or draw | 68% | 4/9 |
| Birmingham or draw | 59% | 4/6 | |
| Draw no bet | Burnley | 56% | 4/5 |
| Birmingham | 44% | 13/10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74% | 1/3 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 21/20 | |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Burnley and yes | 19% | 9/2 |
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Birmingham and yes | 15% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | Burnley and over 2.5 | 24% | 16/5 |
| Birmingham and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Burnley and under 2.5 | 17% | 5/1 | |
| Birmingham and under 2.5 | 13% | 13/2 | |
| Half time / full time | Burnley / Burnley | 24% | 3/1 |
| Birmingham / Birmingham | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Burnley | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 45% | 5/4 |
| Over 10.5 | 34% | 15/8 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 45% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 12/5 |
Our fair price comes from dividing 1 by our chance.
Line-ups we predict
Burnley 4-2-3-1
- Coudert, Grégoire.GK
- Walker, Kyle.DEF
- Pires, Lucas.DEF
- Hatate, Reo.MID
- Ekdal, Hjalmar.DEF
- Julio, Igor.DEF
- Hountondji, Andreas.MID
- Laurent, Josh.MID
- Vardy, Jamie.FWD
- Edwards, Marcus.MID
- Ramazani, Largie.MID
They started Tue 3 Nov at QPR.
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- Allsop, Ryan.GK
- Laird, Ethan.DEF
- Cochrane, Alex.DEF
- Solís, Jhon.MID
- Neumann, Phil.DEF
- Klarer, Christoph.DEF
- Roberts, Patrick.MID
- Iwata, Tomoki.MID
- Bird, Max.FWD
- Jay StansfieldMID
- Liam MillarMID
They started Tue 3 Nov against Millwall.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Burnley, 16 games , and Birmingham, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- We expect 9.3 corners in total: Burnley 4.0, Birmingham 5.3, and the league average is 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.5, with the league on 3.7.
Latest form
Burnley
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at QPR | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Portsmouth | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Lincoln | 1-4 | L |
| Fri 16 Oct | v Wolves | 1-2 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Charlton | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Watford | 4-0 | W |
Burnley's score is shown first.
Birmingham City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Millwall | 3-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Lincoln | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Cardiff | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v QPR | 3-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Preston | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1-0 | W |
Birmingham's score is shown first.
League table for the Championship
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +11 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby County | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston North End | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November