Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction

Barnsley

20:00Friday 20 November

Sheff Wed

League One
The match takes place at Oakwell.

2-1predicted score (9%)

62%both teams score

58%over 2.5 goals

1.58-1.46expected goals

40%25%35%

Our assessment

With 9 points from 12 games, Barnsley hold 23rd place in the League One. Sheff Wed sit 9th after collecting 20 from 13, 11 points clear of Barnsley.

Barnsley's last 6 saw 0 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, with 6 scored and 11 conceded. Across their last 6, Sheff Wed recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded.

This season, both teams scored in 75% of Barnsley games. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 67%; for Sheff Wed, the rates were 54% and 46%. Each match, the expected goals for Barnsley are 1.31 created and 1.69 allowed. Sheff Wed have 1.67 created and 1.41 allowed.

Expected goals stand at 1.58 for Barnsley and 1.46 for Sheff Wed, and the model turns these into a 40% chance for a Barnsley win. A draw is 25% and Sheff Wed 35%.

Our predicted score is Barnsley 2 to 1 Sheffield Wednesday. One exact score stands above the rest: 1-1 at 11.7%. For the outcome we're backing, 2-1 is the most likely score.

Stats: Barnsley v Sheff Wed

Per game	Barnsley	Sheff Wed
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.40
Goals conceded a game	2.00	1.20
Both teams scored	100%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	20%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Corners won / conceded	6.2 / 9.8	4.6 / 7.4
Yellow cards a game	2.2	2.4
xG for / against	1.26 / 1.98	1.25 / 1.37

Per game	Barnsley	Sheff Wed
Games	12	13
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.69
Goals conceded a game	1.83	1.08
Both teams scored	75%	54%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	46%
Clean sheets	8%	23%
Corners won / conceded	7.4 / 6.8	6.0 / 6.2
Yellow cards a game	2.5	2.2
xG for / against	1.31 / 1.69	1.67 / 1.41

Per game	Barnsley	Sheff Wed
Games	6	6
Goals scored a game	1.00	1.33
Goals conceded a game	1.83	1.50
Both teams scored	83%	67%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Corners won / conceded	8.7 / 7.7	5.8 / 5.5
Yellow cards a game	3.3	2.5
xG for / against	1.55 / 2.09	1.55 / 1.68

Fair prices for each market


Match result	Barnsley win	40%	6/4
	Draw	25%	29/10
	Sheff Wed win	35%	15/8
Double chance	Barnsley or draw	65%	8/15
	Sheff Wed or draw	60%	4/6
Draw no bet	Barnsley	53%	10/11
	Sheff Wed	47%	11/10
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	8/13
	No	38%	8/5
Goals	Over 1.5	81%	2/9
	Over 2.5	58%	8/11
	Under 2.5	42%	7/5
	Over 3.5	36%	7/4
Result and BTTS	Barnsley and yes	22%	7/2
	Draw and yes	20%	4/1
	Sheff Wed and yes	20%	4/1
Result and goals	Barnsley and over 2.5	27%	11/4
	Sheff Wed and over 2.5	23%	10/3
	Barnsley and under 2.5	13%	7/1
	Sheff Wed and under 2.5	11%	15/2
Half time / full time	Barnsley / Barnsley	24%	16/5
	Sheff Wed / Sheff Wed	21%	4/1
	Draw / Barnsley	14%	13/2
	Draw / Draw	13%	13/2
Corners	Over 9.5	74%	4/11
	Over 10.5	64%	4/7
Cards	Over 3.5	49%	21/20
	Over 4.5	32%	21/10

Match result

Barnsley win

40%

6/4

Draw

25%

29/10

Sheff Wed win

35%

15/8

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

65%

8/15

Sheff Wed or draw

60%

4/6

Draw no bet

Barnsley

53%

10/11

Sheff Wed

47%

11/10

Both teams to score

Yes

62%

8/13

38%

8/5

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

2/9

Over 2.5

58%

8/11

Under 2.5

42%

7/5

Over 3.5

36%

7/4

Result and BTTS

Barnsley and yes

22%

7/2

Draw and yes

20%

4/1

Sheff Wed and yes

20%

4/1

Result and goals

Barnsley and over 2.5

27%

11/4

Sheff Wed and over 2.5

23%

10/3

Barnsley and under 2.5

13%

7/1

Sheff Wed and under 2.5

11%

15/2

Half time / full time

Barnsley / Barnsley

24%

16/5

Sheff Wed / Sheff Wed

21%

4/1

Draw / Barnsley

14%

13/2

Draw / Draw

13%

13/2

Corners

Over 9.5

74%

4/11

Over 10.5

64%

4/7

Cards

Over 3.5

49%

21/20

Over 4.5

32%

21/10

Our fair price is calculated as 1 divided by our chance.

Expected starting line-ups

Barnsley 4-2-3-1

Slicker, Cieran.GK
Kay, Arley.DEF
Larkeche, Ziyad.DEF
Connell, Luca.MID
Gale, Sam.DEF
Shepherd, Jack.DEF
Yoganathan, Vimal.MID
Kelly, Patrick.MID
Ademeyo, Tobi.FWD
McGeehan, Cameron.MID
Cleary, Reyes.MID

They began the match against Oxford Utd on Sat 31 Oct.

Formation: Sheff Wed 3-4-2-1.

Maynard-Brewer, Ashley.GK
Valery, Yan.MID
Lowe, Max.MID
Swinkels, Sil.DEF
Weaver, Ernie.DEF
Palmer, Liam.DEF
Heskey, Jaden.MID
Bannan, Barry.MID
Burstow, Mason.FWD
Slattery, Callum.FWD
Kellior-Dunn, Davis.FWD

They started Sun 1 Nov v Blackpool.

Chances for correct scores

Each score's chance in %, with Barnsley goals listed down the side and Sheff Wed goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5.5	6.4	5.1	2.5	0.9	0.3
1	6.9	11.7	8.1	3.9	1.4	0.4
2	6.0	8.7	6.4	3.1	1.1	0.3
3	3.1	4.6	3.3	1.6	0.6	0.2
4	1.2	1.8	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Scoring times

Barnsley, 15 games , and Sheff Wed, 15 games.

Cards and corners

Corners expected: 12.2, with Barnsley 6.2 and Sheff Wed 6.0; the league figure is 10.4.
Yellow cards expected: 3.7 (league 3.7).

Form in recent games

Barnsley

Barnsley results for the last 6
			Result
Sat 31 Oct	v Oxford	1-1	D
Sat 24 Oct	at Reading	1-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Luton	1-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	v Cambridge	1-2	L
Sat 10 Oct	at Stockport	1-3	L
Sat 19 Sep	v Leicester	1-1	D

The scores list Barnsley first.

Sheffield Wednesday

Sheff Wed results for the last 6
			Result
Sun 1 Nov	v Blackpool	1-1	D
Tue 27 Oct	v Cambridge	1-1	D
Sat 24 Oct	at Doncaster	0-2	L
Tue 20 Oct	at Notts County	0-2	L
Sat 17 Oct	v AFC Wimbledon	5-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Huddersfield	2-2	D

The scores list Sheff Wed first.

League One standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
7	Bradford City	13	6	4	3	+2	22
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	+0	21
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20
10	Leicester City	13	5	4	4	+3	19
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19
21	Wigan Athletic	14	3	2	9	-11	11
22	Peterborough United	13	2	4	7	-12	10
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9