Accrington Stanley vs Northampton Town prediction

Accrington

1-1full time, Sat 31 Oct

Northampton

League Two
Wham Stadium is the venue.
Referee: N Smith, 3.8 cards per game in 22.
Not shown live on UK TV (Saturday blackout)

Scorer for Accrington: Charlie Warren 5'
Scorer for Northampton: Elliott List 91'

1-0predicted score (14%)

43%both teams score

36%over 2.5 goals

1.26-0.89expected goals

44%30%25%

With the margin taken out, the market has Accrington 44%, draw 28% and Northampton 28% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).

What the model found

Accrington sit 9th in the League Two on 19 points from 14 games. Northampton sit 21st, on 14 points from 13 games, 5 points behind.

Their last 6 saw Accrington record 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 3. Across their last 6 games, Northampton recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 5

This season, both teams scored in 62% of Accrington matches and 54% finished above 2.5 goals; Northampton recorded 27% and 0% Accrington average 1.44 expected goals created and 1.18 allowed per game; Northampton average 0.81 created and 1.19 allowed

An Accrington win is the likeliest result in the model at 44% (the draw 30%, Northampton 25%), on expected goals of 1.26 for Accrington against 0.89 for Northampton. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers price the outcome at 44%, close to our number

Our prediction is Accrington Stanley 1-0 Northampton Town.

Accrington vs Northampton stats

Per game	Accrington	Northampton
Games	5	5
Goals scored a game	2.20	1.00
Goals conceded a game	0.40	0.60
Both teams scored	40%	20%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	0%
Clean sheets	60%	40%
Corners won / conceded	7.4 / 3.0	6.4 / 5.2
Yellow cards a game	2.8	1.4
xG for / against	1.42 / 0.63	1.14 / 1.65

Per game	Accrington	Northampton
Games	13	11
Goals scored a game	1.69	0.73
Goals conceded a game	1.23	0.73
Both teams scored	62%	27%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	0%
Clean sheets	31%	36%
Corners won / conceded	5.3 / 4.7	5.7 / 3.9
Yellow cards a game	2.9	1.5
xG for / against	1.44 / 1.18	0.81 / 1.19

Per game	Accrington	Northampton
Games	6	5
Goals scored a game	2.00	0.80
Goals conceded a game	1.17	1.00
Both teams scored	67%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	0%
Clean sheets	33%	20%
Corners won / conceded	5.8 / 4.0	5.2 / 4.6
Yellow cards a game	2.7	1.8
xG for / against	1.71 / 0.91	0.82 / 1.38

Fair prices and the best UK odds


Match result	Accrington win	44%	5/4	6/5 BetVictor	-5.2%
	Draw	30%	9/4	9/4 Betfred	+0.6%
	Northampton win	25%	3/1	5/2 bet365	-11.0%
Double chance	Accrington or draw	75%	1/3
	Northampton or draw	56%	4/5
Draw no bet	Accrington	63%	4/7
	Northampton	37%	7/4
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	11/8
	No	57%	8/11
Goals	Over 1.5	64%	4/7
	Over 2.5	36%	7/4	11/10 bet365	-24.0%
	Under 2.5	64%	4/7	8/11 bet365	+8.5%
	Over 3.5	17%	5/1
Result and BTTS	Accrington and yes	15%	11/2
	Draw and yes	18%	9/2
	Northampton and yes	9%	10/1
Result and goals	Accrington and over 2.5	21%	4/1
	Northampton and over 2.5	11%	8/1
	Accrington and under 2.5	23%	10/3
	Northampton and under 2.5	14%	6/1
Half time / full time	Accrington / Accrington	26%	11/4
	Draw / Draw	20%	4/1
	Draw / Accrington	17%	5/1
	Northampton / Northampton	14%	6/1
Corners	Over 9.5	48%	11/10
	Over 10.5	37%	13/8
Cards	Over 3.5	53%	10/11
	Over 4.5	36%	7/4

Match result

Accrington win

44%

5/4

6/5 BetVictor

-5.2%

Draw

30%

9/4

9/4 Betfred

+0.6%

Northampton win

25%

3/1

5/2 bet365

-11.0%

Double chance

Accrington or draw

75%

1/3

Northampton or draw

56%

4/5

Draw no bet

Accrington

63%

4/7

Northampton

37%

7/4

Both teams to score

Yes

43%

11/8

57%

8/11

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

4/7

Over 2.5

36%

7/4

11/10 bet365

-24.0%

Under 2.5

64%

4/7

8/11 bet365

+8.5%

Over 3.5

17%

5/1

Result and BTTS

Accrington and yes

15%

11/2

Draw and yes

18%

9/2

Northampton and yes

10/1

Result and goals

Accrington and over 2.5

21%

4/1

Northampton and over 2.5

11%

8/1

Accrington and under 2.5

23%

10/3

Northampton and under 2.5

14%

6/1

Half time / full time

Accrington / Accrington

26%

11/4

Draw / Draw

20%

4/1

Draw / Accrington

17%

5/1

Northampton / Northampton

14%

6/1

Corners

Over 9.5

48%

11/10

Over 10.5

37%

13/8

Cards

Over 3.5

53%

10/11

Over 4.5

36%

7/4

A fair price means 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk supplies the bookmaker prices and carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 only; edge identifies where both numbers are available

Opening line-ups

Accrington 3-4-1-2

Moulden, Louie.GK
Love, Donald.MID
Tutonda, David.MID
Anderson, Joseph.DEF
Rawson, Farrend.DEF
Matthews, Devon.DEF
Borland, Aidan.MID
Mols, Stefan.MID
Henderson, Alex.MID
Walton, Tyler.FWD
Warren, Charlie.FWD

Northampton 3-4-2-1

Jeacock, Zach.GK
Wormleighton, Joe.MID
Maxwell, James.MID
Guthrie, Jon.DEF
Moore, Elliott.DEF
Donacien, Janoi.DEF
Lemonheigh-Evans, Connor.MID
Evans, Lee.MID
Warhurst, Matthew.FWD
Dale, Owen.FWD
Hoskins, Sam.FWD

ESPN supplied the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12

Chances of exact scores

Each score given as a %, with Accrington goals down the side and Northampton goals across
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12.5	9.6	4.6	1.4	0.3	0.1
1	13.9	13.9	5.8	1.7	0.4	0.1
2	9.2	8.2	3.6	1.1	0.2	0.0
3	3.9	3.4	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0
4	1.2	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Scoring times

Figures cover Accrington, 15 games and Northampton, 14 games This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.

Cards and corners

Expected corners total 9.6The breakdown shows Accrington 4.7 and Northampton 4.9; league 9.9
Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7, adjusted for the referee).

Form guide

Accrington Stanley

Accrington, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	at Rochdale	5-0	W
Tue 20 Oct	at York	1-1	D
Sat 17 Oct	v Gillingham	3-1	W
Sat 10 Oct	at Oldham	0-0	D
Sat 3 Oct	v Cheltenham	2-0	W
Sat 26 Sep	at Swindon	1-1	D

Accrington is listed first in the scores.

Northampton Town

Northampton, last 6
			Result
Sat 24 Oct	v Colchester	2-0	W
Tue 20 Oct	v Tranmere	0-1	L
Sat 17 Oct	at Grimsby	2-0	W
Sat 10 Oct	at York	1-1	D
Sat 19 Sep	v Rotherham	0-1	L
Sat 12 Sep	at Shrewsbury	0-2	L

Northampton is listed first in the scores.

League Two standings

Pos	Club	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
7	York City	14	5	5	4	+3	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Accrington Stanley	14	4	7	3	+6	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Tranmere Rovers	14	4	7	3	+2	19
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Northampton Town	13	3	5	5	-1	14
22	Rotherham United	14	2	6	6	-7	12
23	Colchester United	13	2	6	5	-7	12