York City vs Northampton Town prediction
The analysis we provide
Two League Two sides meet in this FA Cup tie. The model's single scale covers both clubs, drawing on league games and earlier cup ties.
York City's last 6 gave them 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 scored and 11 conceded. Northampton's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 6 scored and 4 against.
During this season, 71% of York City matches saw both sides score, and 50% had more than 2.5 goals. For Northampton, those rates were 31% and 0%. York City create 1.68 expected goals a game and give up 1.19, while Northampton create 0.81 and give up 1.15.
Since August 2024, our results record 1 meeting, with 0 wins for York City, 0 for Northampton and 1 draw. Their most recent meeting came on Saturday 10 October 2026 and ended York 1-1 Northampton.
The model puts a York City win first at 54%, ahead of the draw on 26% and Northampton 20%. It works from expected goals: 1.64 for York City, 0.90 for Northampton.
The score we predict is York City 1-0 Northampton Town. At 12.3%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we favor, 1-0 ranks first.
Stats for York City v Northampton
| Per game |  York City |  Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.4 / 5.8 | 6.4 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.01 / 1.40 | 1.08 / 1.30 |
| Per game | York City | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.71 | 0.69 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 0.77 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.4 / 4.9 | 5.5 / 3.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG for / against | 1.68 / 1.19 | 0.81 / 1.15 |
| Per game | York City | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.29 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.9 / 4.6 | 5.3 / 4.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 0.91 | 0.79 / 1.34 |
| Per game | York City | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 8.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.28 / 1.01 | 1.01 / 2.28 |
Fair prices, market by market
| Match result | York City win | 54% | 5/6 |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | |
| Northampton win | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Double chance | York City or draw | 80% | 1/4 |
| Northampton or draw | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Draw no bet | York City | 73% | 4/11 |
| Northampton | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 21/20 |
| No | 51% | 10/11 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |
| Result and BTTS | York City and yes | 22% | 7/2 |
| Draw and yes | 17% | 9/2 | |
| Northampton and yes | 9% | 10/1 | |
| Result and goals | York City and over 2.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
| Northampton and over 2.5 | 10% | 17/2 | |
| York City and under 2.5 | 23% | 10/3 | |
| Northampton and under 2.5 | 10% | 9/1 | |
| Half time / full time | York City / York City | 34% | 2/1 |
| Draw / York City | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Northampton / Northampton | 11% | 8/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens |
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 29% | 5/2 |
To find the fair price, divide 1 by our chance. Our feed has no UK bookmaker prices for this match, since football-data.co.uk doesn't cover the competition.
The line-ups we predict
York City 3-4-2-1
- Mcnally, Alfie.GK
- Hunt, Jack.MID
- Boyes, Harry.MID
- Kitching, Mark.DEF
- Johnson, Zak.DEF
- Fallowfield, Ryan.DEF
- Hunt, Alex.MID
- Read, Arthur.MID
- Stones, Josh.FWD
- Grey, Joey.FWD
- Pearce, Ollie.FWD
They started Sat 31 Oct at Grimsby.
Northampton 3-4-2-1
- Jeacock, Zach.GK
- Wormleighton, Joe.MID
- Powell, Josh.MID
- Guthrie, Jon.DEF
- Moore, Elliott.DEF
- Donacien, Janoi.DEF
- Lemonheigh-Evans, Connor.MID
- Evans, Lee.MID
- Warhurst, Matthew.FWD
- Dale, Owen.FWD
- O'Brien-Whitmarsh, Joseph.FWD
They started on Tue 3 Nov v Oldham.
For the other clubs, we list the eleven who started their most recent match, as reported by ESPN. Once ESPN confirms the teams, about an hour before kick-off, they replace these line-ups.
Chances by correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
15 games for York City; Northampton, 14 games. This season, ESPN match events give the minute each goal was scored.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 9.9, including York City 5.0 and Northampton 4.9; the league figure is 9.9.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.5 (league 3.7).
Form in recent games
York City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-5 | L |
| Tue 27 Oct | at Barnet | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Port Vale | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Accrington | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Newport County | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Northampton | 1-1 | D |
Scores are listed with York City first.
Northampton Town
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Oldham | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Accrington | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Colchester | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Tranmere | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Grimsby | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at York | 1-1 | D |
Scores are listed with Northampton first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct 2026 | League Two | York 1-1 Northampton | 0-1 | 12 |