Wrexham vs Middlesbrough prediction
With margin removed, prices across 6 UK bookmakers give Wrexham 24%, a draw 25% and Boro 52% on average.
What the model made of it
In the Championship, Wrexham sit 19th after collecting 14 points from 13 games. Boro sit 1st on 28 from 13, so they're 14 points ahead.
Across their last 6, Wrexham recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. They scored 8 and conceded 8. Across their last 6, Boro recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 16 scored and 7 conceded.
For Wrexham this season, 62% of games had both teams score and 46% went over 2.5 goals. Boro's two figures are 77% and 77%. Wrexham's expected goals are 1.12 per match, with 1.21 allowed. Boro have 2.13 and allow 0.97.
Since August 2024, our results include 2 meetings. Wins were 0 for Wrexham and 0 for Boro, while 2 ended level. The latest meeting finished Wrexham 2-2 Middlesbrough on Saturday 2 May 2026.
A Boro win is the model's likeliest outcome at 42%, ahead of Wrexham 31% and 27% for the draw. Expected goals are Wrexham 1.28 and Boro 1.51. With their margin removed, UK bookmaker prices make it 52%. That's higher than our rating.
Our prediction puts Wrexham 1-2 Middlesbrough as the likely score. One exact score stands out at the top: 1-1 at 12.6%. Inside the outcome we favor, 1-2 comes out ahead.
Stats for Wrexham and Boro
| Per game |  Wrexham |  Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.6 / 4.8 | 7.6 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.15 / 1.01 | 2.42 / 0.70 |
| Per game | Wrexham | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.15 | 2.31 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.46 | 1.31 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 77% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.1 / 4.5 | 6.5 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG for / against | 1.12 / 1.21 | 2.13 / 0.97 |
| Per game | Wrexham | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 4.2 | 5.3 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.21 / 1.28 | 2.35 / 0.89 |
| Per game | Wrexham | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 3.5 | 3.5 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Wrexham win | 31% | 9/4 | 10/3 bet365 | +32.0% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 3/1 bet365 | +3.6% | |
| Boro win | 42% | 11/8 | 6/5 Betway | -7.6% | |
| Double chance | Wrexham or draw | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Boro or draw | 69% | 4/9 | |||
| Draw no bet | Wrexham | 43% | 11/8 | ||
| Boro | 57% | 8/11 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 43% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 2/7 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 10/11 | 8/13 bet365 | -14.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 11/10 | 5/4 bet365 | +8.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Wrexham and yes | 16% | 5/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Boro and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Wrexham and over 2.5 | 19% | 4/1 | ||
| Boro and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |||
| Wrexham and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Boro and under 2.5 | 16% | 11/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Boro / Boro | 25% | 3/1 | ||
| Wrexham / Wrexham | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Boro | 15% | 6/1 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 59% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 48% | 11/10 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 23% | 10/3 |
Our fair price comes from dividing 1 by the chance we give. Match odds and over/under 2.5 come from football-data.co.uk, which carries no other prices; edge shows where both figures are available.
The starting elevens
Wrexham 3-5-1-1
- Patterson, Anthony.GK
- Kaboré, Issa.MID
- Ekomie, Jacques.MID
- Doyle, Callum.DEF
- Worrall, Joe.DEF
- Cleworth, Max.DEF
- Dobson, George.MID
- Thomason, George.MID
- Moore, Kieffer.FWD
- O'Brien, Lewis.FWD
- Whiteman, Benjamin.MID
Boro 3-4-2-1
- Vítek, Radek.GK
- Brittain, Callum.MID
- Borges, Neto.MID
- Malanda, Adilson.DEF
- Phillips, Ashley.DEF
- Luke AylingDEF
- Morris, Aidan.MID
- Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
- Kyle JosephFWD
- Cozier-Duberry, Amario.FWD
- Conway, Tommy.FWD
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Thursday 5 November, 04:57.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
15 games for Wrexham; Boro, 17 games. This season's goals by minute come from ESPN match events.
Corner and card figures
- Corners expected for the game are 10.6, with Wrexham 4.5 and Boro 6.0, against league 10.5.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.2, compared with 3.7 in the league.
Form from recent games
Wrexham
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | at Sheffield United | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Blackburn | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Preston | 4-1 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v West Brom | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Derby | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Southampton | 2-1 | W |
In these scores, Wrexham comes first.
Middlesbrough
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Charlton | 3-0 | W |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Stoke | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Birmingham | 2-2 | D |
In these scores, Boro comes first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 2 May 2026 | Championship | Wrexham 2-2 Middlesbrough | 2-2 | 9 |
| Sat 25 Oct 2025 | Championship | Middlesbrough 1-1 Wrexham | 0-1 | 8 |
Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
ESPN lists the standings as of Wednesday 4 November.