Worthing vs Sutton United prediction
With margin removed, the market gives Worthing 49%, draw 25% and Sutton Utd 26%. This is an average of 6 UK bookmakers.
What the model found
Worthing's last 6 matches produced 4 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses. They scored 15 and conceded 7. In their last 6 matches, Sutton Utd won 1 and lost 3, with 2 draws. They scored 7 and conceded 11.
This season, both teams scored in 80% of Worthing games, and 80% had more than 2.5 goals. Sutton Utd recorded 40% and 40%.
Expected goals are 2.22 for Worthing and 1.23 for Sutton Utd. From these, the model gives a Worthing win 59%, a draw 21% and Sutton Utd 20%. With their margin removed, UK bookmakers put the chance at 49%. We rate our previous estimate higher than the market figure.
Our predicted score is Worthing 2-1 Sutton United.
Worthing against Sutton Utd statistics
| Per game | Worthing |  Sutton Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.6 / 8.0 | 3.2 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Per game | Worthing | Sutton Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.9 | 4.3 / 4.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Per game | Worthing | Sutton Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.12 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 29% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.5 / 6.2 | 4.3 / 4.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | Worthing win | 59% | 4/6 | 5/6 BetVictor | +10.7% |
| Draw | 21% | 4/1 | 11/4 Betfred | -21.3% | |
| Sutton Utd win | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 bet365 | -28.7% | |
| Double chance | Worthing or draw | 80% | 1/4 | ||
| Sutton Utd or draw | 41% | 6/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Worthing | 75% | 1/3 | ||
| Sutton Utd | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 4/7 | ||
| No | 36% | 7/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 86% | 2/13 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 1/2 | 4/7 bet365 | +4.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 2/1 | 11/8 bet365 | -22.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Worthing and yes | 34% | 2/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Sutton Utd and yes | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Worthing and over 2.5 | 45% | 5/4 | ||
| Sutton Utd and over 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Worthing and under 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Sutton Utd and under 2.5 | 6% | 16/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Worthing / Worthing | 39% | 13/8 | ||
| Draw / Worthing | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Sutton Utd / Sutton Utd | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 10% | 17/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51% | evens | ||
| Over 10.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 63% | 4/7 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 47% | 11/10 |
Our fair price comes from 1 divided by our chance. Bookmaker prices come from football-data.co.uk. It carries only match odds and over/under 2.5; edge marks where we have both numbers.
Line-ups to start the match
Worthing 4-2-3-1
- Taylor SeymourGK
- Colbran, Joel.DEF
- Adjetey-Brew, Cory.DEF
- Aguiar, Ricky.MID
- Cook, Joe.DEF
- Moore, Jayden.DEF
- De Graft, Razzaq.MID
- Wadham, Jack.MID
- Kendall, Charley.FWD
- Young, Jordan.MID
- Johnson-Fisher, Dominic.MID
Sutton Utd 4-4-2
- Brits, Spike.GK
- Urpens, Daniel.DEF
- Brooks, Ben.DEF
- Osaoabe, Emma.MID
- Kirk, Alex.DEF
- Topalloj, Besart.DEF
- Knight, Joe.MID
- Taylor, Jake.MID
- Babalola, Temi.FWD
- Njoku, Brandon.FWD
- Carter, Charlie.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:12.
Chances for the correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
For Worthing, the count is 16 games. Sutton Utd, 16 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- 9.8corners expected (Worthing 4.2, Sutton Utd 5.6; league 9.9)
- Expected yellow cards: 4.6, adjusted for the refereeThe league figure is 3.8
Form in recent matches
Worthing
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | v Southend | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Kidderminster | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Solihull | 5-0 | W |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Gateshead | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 29 Sep | at Yeovil | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Halifax | 2-1 | W |
Worthing appears first in the scores.
Sutton United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | v Aldershot | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Harrogate | 1-3 | L |
| Fri 9 Oct | v Boreham Wood | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 3 Oct | at Kidderminster | 1-1 | D |
| Wed 30 Sep | at Tamworth | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 26 Sep | v Forest Green | 3-3 | D |
Sutton Utd appears first in the scores.