Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff City prediction
With margins removed, the market has Wolves 56%, Cardiff 21% and a draw 23% (average of 6 UK bookmakers).
The model's view
Wolves sit 7th in the Championship, with 24 points earned across 13 games. In 18th place, Cardiff have 14 points from 13 matches, a gap of 10 points.
Wolves' last 6 show 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 6 scored and 6 conceded. Cardiff's last 6 games brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses; they scored 12 and conceded 7.
Of Wolves games this season, 67% featured a goal from each team and 58% finished above 2.5 goals. Cardiff's corresponding rates are 75% and 58%. Wolves generate 1.74 per game and concede 0.93 based on expected goals; for Cardiff it's 1.93 created and 1.67 allowed.
A Wolves win is the model's likeliest result at 59%, with the draw 22% and Cardiff 18%, based on 2.05 expected goals for Wolves and 1.06 for Cardiff. UK bookmakers have this at 56% once their margin is removed, so our rating is higher than the market's.
We predict Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Cardiff City. For exact scores, 1-1 leads at 10.3%. Within the result we lean toward, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Wolves v Cardiff
| Per game |  Wolves |  Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.2 / 2.8 | 5.0 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.51 / 0.88 | 2.23 / 1.79 |
| Per game | Wolves | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.58 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 8% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.1 / 3.8 | 6.8 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.74 / 0.93 | 1.93 / 1.67 |
| Per game | Wolves | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 8.2 / 3.3 | 6.3 / 6.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.93 / 0.75 | 1.27 / 2.02 |
Fair prices and top UK odds
| Match result | Wolves win | 59% | 4/6 | 4/6 Betway | -0.2% |
| Draw | 22% | 7/2 | 10/3 Betway | -7.2% | |
| Cardiff win | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 bet365 | -12.1% | |
| Double chance | Wolves or draw | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Cardiff or draw | 41% | 6/4 | |||
| Draw no bet | Wolves | 76% | 3/10 | ||
| Cardiff | 24% | 10/3 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| No | 42% | 11/8 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82% | 2/9 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 4/6 | 1/2 bet365 | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 6/4 | 13/8 bet365 | +4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Wolves and yes | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw and yes | 17% | 5/1 | |||
| Cardiff and yes | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Wolves and over 2.5 | 42% | 11/8 | ||
| Cardiff and over 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Wolves and under 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Cardiff and under 2.5 | 7% | 14/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Wolves / Wolves | 38% | 13/8 | ||
| Draw / Wolves | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 15/2 | |||
| Cardiff / Cardiff | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 65% | 8/15 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 55% | 5/6 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 57% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 40% | 6/4 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk provides the bookmaker prices and carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. We show edge where both numbers are available.
Starting line-ups for both sides
Wolves 4-2-3-1
- Sá, José.GK
- Trippier, Kieran.DEF
- Bueno, Hugo.DEF
- Munetsi, Marshall.MID
- Mosquera, Yerson.DEF
- Krejcí, Ladislav.DEF
- López, Fernando.MID
- AndréMID
- Armstrong, Adam.FWD
- James, Jordan.MID
- Said, Rafiki.MID
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
- Trott, Nathan.GK
- Ng, Perry.DEF
- Scanlon, Calum.DEF
- Robertson, Alex.MID
- Fish, William.DEF
- Bagan, Joel.DEF
- Tanner, Ollie.MID
- Colwill, Joel.MID
- Salech, Yousef.FWD
- Moylan, Jack.MID
- Willock, Chris.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Their scoring times
For Wolves, 17 games. Cardiff, 16 games. This season's ESPN match events show goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 11.2Wolves 5.3, Cardiff 5.9, with the league at 10.4
- Yellow cards expected 4.2 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
Latest form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Watford | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 20 Oct | v Portsmouth | 1-1 | D |
| Fri 16 Oct | at Burnley | 2-1 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Bolton | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 0-1 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | v West Brom | 1-0 | W |
Wolves scores come first.
Cardiff City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Watford | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1-2 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Charlton | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 12 Sep | at Bolton | 0-1 | L |
Cardiff scores come first.
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November, provides these standings.