West Ham United vs Stoke City prediction
Analysis from us
West Ham sit 8th in the Championship after 14 games and have collected 23 points. Stoke are 4th on 26 points from 14 games, 3 points ahead.
West Ham's last 6 games gave 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. Stoke's last 6 gave them 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, along with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded.
During the season, West Ham saw both sides score in 71% of matches, while 79% had more than 2.5 goals. Stoke's rates were 64% and 64%. West Ham's expected goals are 2.07 created and 1.26 allowed per game. Stoke sit at 1.03 created and 1.52 allowed.
The model puts a West Ham win as the likeliest result at 68%, with a draw on 19% and Stoke 13%. It gets there from expected goals: 2.29 for West Ham, 0.91 for Stoke.
The scoreline we expect: West Ham United 2-0 Stoke City.
Stats for West Ham and Stoke
| Per game |  West Ham |  Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.8 / 5.0 | 5.4 / 5.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.88 / 1.23 | 1.15 / 1.25 |
| Per game | West Ham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.57 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.21 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 36% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.9 / 4.6 | 4.8 / 5.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 2.07 / 1.26 | 1.03 / 1.52 |
| Per game | West Ham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.57 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.6 / 5.1 | 4.1 / 6.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| xG for / against | 2.24 / 0.99 | 1.00 / 2.13 |
Market fair prices
| Match result | West Ham win | 68% | 1/2 |
| Draw | 19% | 4/1 | |
| Stoke win | 13% | 7/1 | |
| Double chance | West Ham or draw | 87% | 1/7 |
| Stoke or draw | 32% | 21/10 | |
| Draw no bet | West Ham | 84% | 2/11 |
| Stoke | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 13/8 | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 6/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | West Ham and yes | 32% | 21/10 |
| Draw and yes | 15% | 6/1 | |
| Stoke and yes | 7% | 12/1 | |
| Result and goals | West Ham and over 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 |
| Stoke and over 2.5 | 8% | 12/1 | |
| West Ham and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Stoke and under 2.5 | 5% | 20/1 | |
| Half time / full time | West Ham / West Ham | 45% | 6/5 |
| Draw / West Ham | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Draw / Draw | 10% | 17/2 | |
| Stoke / Stoke | 7% | 12/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 57% | 4/5 |
| Over 10.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
To find the fair price, divide 1 by our chance.
Starting XIs we expect
West Ham 4-4-1-1
- Hermansen, Mads.GK
- Veltman, Joël.DEF
- MoratoDEF
- Engels, Arne.MID
- Mavropanos, Konstantinos.DEF
- Kilman, Max.DEF
- Bowen, Jarrod.MID
- Magassa, Soungoutou.MID
- Castellanos, Valentín.FWD
- Mukasa, Divine.FWD
- Solomon, Manor.MID
They started Wed 4 Nov at Cardiff.
Stoke 3-4-3
- Johansson, Viktor.GK
- Johnson, Ben.MID
- Bombino, Luca.MID
- Graham, Luke.DEF
- Taloverov, Maksym.DEF
- Wilmot, Ben.DEF
- McGlynn, Jack.MID
- Soumaré, Djibril.MID
- Bozeník, Róbert.FWD
- Manhoef, Million.FWD
- Devenny, Justin.FWD
The start was Tue 3 Nov at Blackburn.
Chances of the exact score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Games: 17 for West Ham. Stoke, 16 games.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected: 10.4 (West Ham 5.3, and Stoke 5.1; league 10.4).
- We expect 3.9 yellow cards, against 3.7 for the league.
How the teams have been doing
West Ham United
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Cardiff | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | v West Brom | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Southampton | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Swansea | 1-0 | W |
| Wed 14 Oct | at Lincoln | 6-0 | W |
| Fri 9 Oct | v QPR | 1-1 | D |
Here the scores show West Ham first.
Stoke City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Blackburn | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Preston | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Bristol City | 0-0 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Derby | 1-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2-1 | W |
Here the scores show Stoke first.
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham United | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +15 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November