West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton prediction
With margin removed, market prices give West Brom 38%, draw 27% and Southampton 35%, based on an average of 6 UK bookmakers.
What the model made of it
West Brom sit 5th in the Championship on 25 points from 14 games. Southampton sit 6th with 24 points from 14 games, a gap of 1 point.
West Brom's last 6 included 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 9 goals scored and 7 conceded. From their last 6, Southampton recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 5.
This season, West Brom saw both teams score in 69% of games, while 46% had more than 2.5 goals. For Southampton, the rates were 77% and 62%. West Brom's expected goals are 1.45 a game, with 1.43 allowed. Southampton's are 1.73, with 1.26 allowed.
Our results list 2 meetings since August 2024. West Brom won 0 of them, Southampton won 1 and 1 ended level. Their latest meeting, Wednesday 11 March 2026, ended as West Brom 1-1 Southampton.
Based on 1.40 expected goals for West Brom and 1.49 for Southampton, the model sees a Southampton win at 39% as most likely. West Brom 35% and the draw 26% are the other outcomes. After removing the bookmakers' margin, UK prices give this outcome 35%, which we rate above the market.
The predicted score is West Bromwich Albion 1-2 Southampton. One exact score is likelier than any other: 1-1 at 12.3%. Inside the result we lean to, 1-2 is the likeliest score.
Stats for West Brom against Southampton
| Per game |  West Brom |  Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.4 / 6.0 | 5.0 / 5.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 2.06 / 1.29 | 1.71 / 1.21 |
| Per game | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.46 | 2.15 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 23% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.8 / 6.1 | 5.4 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.45 / 1.43 | 1.73 / 1.26 |
| Per game | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Corners won / conceded | 6.0 / 4.7 | 5.2 / 5.2 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.63 / 1.14 | 1.56 / 1.23 |
| Per game | West Brom | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 7.0 / 2.5 | 2.5 / 7.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Fair prices and the best UK odds
| Match result | West Brom win | 35% | 15/8 | 6/4 Betway | -12.5% |
| Draw | 26% | 11/4 | 11/4 Betway | -3.1% | |
| Southampton win | 39% | 13/8 | 7/4 bet365 | +4.8% | |
| Double chance | West Brom or draw | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Southampton or draw | 65% | 8/15 | |||
| Draw no bet | West Brom | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| Southampton | 53% | 10/11 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 4/6 | ||
| No | 41% | 6/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79% | 1/4 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 4/5 | 8/11 bet365 | -4.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 5/4 | 11/10 bet365 | -6.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 2/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | West Brom and yes | 19% | 9/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Southampton and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | West Brom and over 2.5 | 22% | 7/2 | ||
| Southampton and over 2.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| West Brom and under 2.5 | 13% | 7/1 | |||
| Southampton and under 2.5 | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Half time / full time | Southampton / Southampton | 23% | 10/3 | ||
| West Brom / West Brom | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 6/1 | |||
| Draw / Southampton | 14% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 51% | evens | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 41% | 6/4 |
A fair price is 1 divided by our chance. football-data.co.uk provides the bookmaker prices. It includes match odds and over/under 2.5 markets only, and edge marks where both figures are available.
Starting team line-ups
West Brom 4-4-2
- O'Leary, Max.GK
- Pereira, Brayann.DEF
- Styles, Callum.DEF
- Molumby, Jayson.MID
- Mepham, Chris.DEF
- Campbell, George.DEF
- Nzingoula, Rabby.MID
- Diakite, Ousmane.MID
- Horn Myhre, Felix.FWD
- Morgan, Jimmy.FWD
- Price, Isaac.MID
Southampton 4-2-3-1
- Peretz, Daniel.GK
- Bree, James.DEF
- Player: Ryan Manning.DEF
- Player: Flynn Downes.MID
- Player: Jack Stephens.DEF
- Player: Keven Schlotterbeck.DEF
- Player: Kuryu Matsuki.MID
- Player: James Ward-Prowse.MID
- Player: Divin Mubama.FWD
- Player: Finn Azaz.MID
- Player: Samuel Edozie.MID
ESPN provided the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For West Brom, the figures cover 16 games. For Southampton, 16 games are included. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored in each minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.8, with West Brom 5.0 and Southampton 5.8; league 10.5.
- Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (league 3.7, referee adjusted).
How each side has done recently
West Bromwich Albion
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at West Ham | 3-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Preston | 1-1 | D |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Blackburn | 3-2 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Wrexham | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Birmingham | 0-1 | L |
| Sun 20 Sep | at Wolves | 0-1 | L |
West Brom's score is listed first.
Southampton
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v QPR | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at West Ham | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Bolton | 0-0 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | at Norwich | 1-0 | W |
| Sun 11 Oct | v Portsmouth | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Wrexham | 1-2 | L |
Southampton's score is listed first.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11 Mar 2026 | Championship | West Brom 1-1 Southampton | 1-0 | 8 |
| Tue 9 Dec 2025 | Championship | Southampton 3-2 West Brom | 3-0 | 11 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 |  Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 | Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 7 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham United | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +15 | 22 |
The standings come from ESPN, as of Wednesday 4 November.