Watford vs Middlesbrough prediction
Our breakdown
In the Championship, Watford sit 20th after taking 14 points from 14 games. Boro sit 1st on 28 points from 13 matches, 14 points in front.
Watford's last 6 games brought 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 6 scored and 13 conceded. From their last 6, Boro took 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 7.
For Watford this season, 50% of games had both teams scoring and 43% had more than 2.5 goals; Boro's figures are 71% and 71%. Watford's expected goals sit at 1.01 created and 1.75 allowed per game; Boro's are 2.04 and 1.00.
Our results list 4 meetings since August 2024, with Watford taking 3, Boro 1 and 0 draws. Saturday 25 April 2026 was the most recent meeting, and Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford was the result.
A Boro win is what the model favors most, at 55%, with Watford 20% and the draw 24%. The expected goals behind those chances are Watford 1.01 and Boro 1.81.
The score we expect is Watford 0-1 Middlesbrough. One exact score is the single likeliest: 1-1 at 11.5%. Within the result we lean toward, 0-1 is the likeliest score.
Stats for Watford v Boro
| Per game |  Watford |  Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.2 / 7.6 | 7.2 / 3.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.2 | 0.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.22 / 1.74 | 2.42 / 0.85 |
| Per game | Watford | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.93 | 2.14 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.64 | 1.36 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 21% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.6 / 6.6 | 6.1 / 4.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.01 / 1.75 | 2.04 / 1.00 |
| Per game | Watford | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.4 / 6.0 | 4.9 / 4.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| xG for / against | 1.16 / 1.50 | 2.14 / 0.97 |
| Per game | Watford | Boro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 6.5 | 6.5 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Watford win | 20% | 4/1 |
| Draw | 24% | 3/1 | |
| Boro win | 55% | 4/5 | |
| Double chance | Watford or draw | 45% | 5/4 |
| Boro or draw | 80% | 1/4 | |
| Draw no bet | Watford | 27% | 11/4 |
| Boro | 73% | 4/11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 5/6 |
| No | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78% | 2/7 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 9/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Watford and yes | 10% | 17/2 |
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Boro and yes | 26% | 3/1 | |
| Result and goals | Watford and over 2.5 | 12% | 15/2 |
| Boro and over 2.5 | 36% | 7/4 | |
| Watford and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Boro and under 2.5 | 20% | 4/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Boro / Boro | 35% | 15/8 |
| Draw / Boro | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 14% | 13/2 | |
| Watford / Watford | 11% | 15/2 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60% | 4/6 |
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 52% | 10/11 |
| Over 4.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
Our fair price equals 1 divided by our chance. Our feed still lacks UK bookmaker prices for this match. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them two or three days ahead of kick-off.
Line-ups we predict
Watford 4-2-3-1
- Ravaglia, Federico.GK
- Omar-Haktab TraoréDEF
- Bola, Marc.DEF
- Kyprianou, Hector.MID
- Pollock, Matthew.DEF
- Keben, Kévin.DEF
- Maamma, Othmane.MID
- Kayembe, Edo.MID
- Boadu, Myron.FWD
- Bravo, Iker.MID
- Mavididi, Stephy.MID
Started Tue 3 Nov against Lincoln City.
Boro 3-4-2-1
- Vítek, Radek.GK
- Brittain, Callum.MID
- Borges, Neto.MID
- Malanda, Adilson.DEF
- Phillips, Ashley.DEF
- Ayling, Luke.DEF
- Morris, Aidan.MID
- Berhalter, Sebastian.MID
- Joseph, Kyle.FWD
- Cozier-Duberry, Amario.FWD
- Conway, Tommy.FWD
On Wed 4 Nov they started at Wrexham.
For other clubs, ESPN lists the starting eleven from their latest match. Once the teams are named, ESPN's confirmed line-ups replace these, about an hour before kick-off.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Watford it's 16 games, for Boro, 17 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored by minute.
Cards and corners
- Corners expected sit at 10.7, with Watford 4.3, Boro 6.4 and the league on 10.4.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.9 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Watford
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | v Lincoln | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Norwich | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Wolves | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Charlton | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Cardiff | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Burnley | 0-4 | L |
The Watford score is read first.
Middlesbrough
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Wrexham | 0-2 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Charlton | 3-0 | W |
| Fri 23 Oct | at Bolton | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Stoke | 3-2 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Wolves | 1-0 | W |
The Boro score is read first.
Head to head
| Sat 25 Apr 2026 | Championship | Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford | 2-0 | 9 |
| Sat 1 Nov 2025 | Championship | Watford 3-0 Middlesbrough | 2-0 | 8 |
| Sat 15 Feb 2025 | Championship | Middlesbrough 0-1 Watford | 0-1 | 13 |
| Sat 5 Oct 2024 | Championship | Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough | 0-0 | 12 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
ESPN supplies the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.