Watford vs Lincoln City prediction
With the margin removed, the market has Watford 38%, draw 27% and Lincoln City 35% from an average of 6 UK bookmakers
The model's view
Watford sit 20th in the Championship, earning 14 points across 14 games. In 17th place, Lincoln City have 15 points from 14 games, 1 point ahead.
Watford's last 6 produced 1 win, 0 draws and 5 defeats, as they scored 5 and conceded 14 Lincoln City's last 6 gave them 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 8 scored and 17 conceded in total.
For Watford this season, both teams scored in 54% of games, while 46% had over 2.5 goals. Lincoln City's matching figures are 54% and 62% respectively. Watford's expected goals are 1.04 a game and 1.83 allowed. For Lincoln City, the figures are 1.34 created and 1.50 allowed.
The model puts a Lincoln City win at the top of the list with 42%, ahead of Watford 31% and the draw 27%. Those figures come from expected goals: 1.24 for Watford, 1.50 for Lincoln City. After removing their margin, UK bookmakers price it at 35%, so our rating is higher than the market's
Watford 1-2 Lincoln City is our predicted score At 12.7%, 1-1 is the most likely single exact score. Within the result we favor, 1-2 has the highest chance
Stats for Watford v Lincoln City
| Per game |  Watford |  Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.0 / 6.8 | 2.4 / 6.6 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| xG for / against | 1.22 / 1.98 | 1.36 / 2.11 |
| Per game | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.77 | 1.77 |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 31% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.4 / 6.7 | 3.5 / 7.5 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.04 / 1.83 | 1.34 / 1.50 |
| Per game | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 6.0 | 3.0 / 10.3 |
| Yellow cards a game | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| xG for / against | 1.25 / 1.62 | 0.93 / 1.46 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Watford win | 31% | 9/4 | 6/4 BetVictor | -23.0% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 5/2 Betway | -6.1% | |
| Lincoln City win | 42% | 11/8 | 15/8 Betway | +22.9% | |
| Double chance | Watford or draw | 58% | 8/11 | ||
| Lincoln City or draw | 69% | 4/9 | |||
| Draw no bet | Watford | 42% | 11/8 | ||
| Lincoln City | 58% | 8/11 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| No | 44% | 5/4 | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 10/11 | 5/6 bet365 | -4.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 21/20 | evens bet365 | -3.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 5/2 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Watford and yes | 16% | 11/2 | ||
| Draw and yes | 20% | 4/1 | |||
| Lincoln City and yes | 21% | 4/1 | |||
| Result and goals | Watford and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | ||
| Lincoln City and over 2.5 | 26% | 11/4 | |||
| Watford and under 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Lincoln City and under 2.5 | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Lincoln City / Lincoln City | 26% | 3/1 | ||
| Watford / Watford | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Draw / Lincoln City | 15% | 11/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 56% | 4/5 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 45% | 6/5 | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 66% | 8/15 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 49% | evens |
Divide 1 by our chance to get the fair price football-data.co.uk provides the bookmaker prices and carries match odds plus over/under 2.5 only. Edge appears when both figures are available
Line-ups for the start
Watford 4-2-3-1
- Ravaglia, Federico.GK
- Omar-Haktab TraoréDEF
- Bola, Marc.DEF
- Kyprianou, Hector.MID
- Pollock, Matthew.DEF
- Keben, Kévin.DEF
- Maamma, Othmane.MID
- Kayembe, Edo.MID
- Boadu, Myron.FWD
- Bravo, Iker.MID
- Mavididi, Stephy.MID
Lincoln City 3-4-2-1
- Player: George Wickens.GK
- Oyegoke, Daniel.MID
- Elder, Callum.MID
- Coubis, Andrei.DEF
- Bradley, Sonny.DEF
- Elerewe, Ayodeji.DEF
- Konak, Yunus.MID
- Bayliss, Tom.MID
- Draper, Freddie.FWD
- Ogbene, Chiedozie.FWD
- House, Ben.FWD
ESPN gave us the starting elevens, read Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Scoring times
Watford, 16 games ; then Lincoln City, 17 games. This season's ESPN match events give the goals scored by minute.
Corner and card figures
- Corners expected: 10.3 in total, with the league at 10.5 (Watford 5.3, Lincoln City 5.0).
- Referee adjusted, 4.8 yellow cards are expected; the league figure is 3.7.
Form guide
Watford
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | at Norwich | 2-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | at Wolves | 0-1 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v Charlton | 2-0 | W |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Cardiff | 1-5 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Burnley | 0-4 | L |
| Fri 18 Sep | at Bristol City | 0-1 | L |
Watford's score is listed first.
Lincoln City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Burnley | 4-1 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Millwall | 2-2 | D |
| Wed 14 Oct | v West Ham | 0-6 | L |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Sheffield United | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 19 Sep | v Swansea | 1-2 | L |
Lincoln City's score comes first.
Championship table
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 18 |  Cardiff City | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 20 | Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton Athletic | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
ESPN provided the standings, as of Wednesday 4 November.