Swansea City vs Cardiff City prediction
Our breakdown
In the Championship, Swansea rank 5th with 26 points taken from 14 games. Cardiff sit 18th in the table, with 15 points from 14 matches and 11 points behind.
Across their last 6 matches, Swansea recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. Cardiff's last 6 show 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded.
This season, 43% of Swansea games featured goals from both sides and 64% had more than 2.5 goals; Cardiff's rates are 71% and 64%. For expected goals, Swansea generate 1.65 per match and concede 1.29; Cardiff generate 1.80 and concede 1.73.
Our results record 2 meetings since August 2024, with Swansea winning 0, Cardiff 1 and 1 ending level. Cardiff 3-0 Swansea was the score on Saturday 18 January 2025, the most recent meeting.
At 50%, a Swansea win is the model's likeliest result; the draw is 24% and Cardiff 27%, from 1.86 expected goals for Swansea and 1.32 for Cardiff.
Our predicted score is Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City. At 10.8%, 1-1 is the likeliest single exact score; within our favored result, 2-1 is the likeliest score.
Statistics for Swansea v Cardiff
| Per game |  Swansea |  Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.2 / 5.4 | 4.4 / 4.8 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| xG for / against | 1.67 / 1.60 | 1.91 / 1.89 |
| Per game | Swansea | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.14 | 1.64 |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 7% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.1 / 4.5 | 6.5 / 4.9 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xG for / against | 1.65 / 1.29 | 1.80 / 1.73 |
| Per game | Swansea | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.57 | 0.86 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.43 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 0% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.1 / 2.7 | 6.1 / 6.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| xG for / against | 1.84 / 1.01 | 1.22 / 1.96 |
| Per game | Swansea | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.0 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 4.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
Fair prices for each market
| Match result | Swansea win | 50% | evens |
| Draw | 24% | 16/5 | |
| Cardiff win | 27% | 11/4 | |
| Double chance | Swansea or draw | 73% | 4/11 |
| Cardiff or draw | 50% | evens | |
| Draw no bet | Swansea | 65% | 8/15 |
| Cardiff | 35% | 15/8 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 8/13 |
| No | 37% | 17/10 | |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 83% | 1/5 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 8/13 | |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 8/5 | |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 6/4 | |
| Result and BTTS | Swansea and yes | 28% | 13/5 |
| Draw and yes | 19% | 9/2 | |
| Cardiff and yes | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Result and goals | Swansea and over 2.5 | 35% | 15/8 |
| Cardiff and over 2.5 | 18% | 9/2 | |
| Swansea and under 2.5 | 14% | 6/1 | |
| Cardiff and under 2.5 | 8% | 11/1 | |
| Half time / full time | Swansea / Swansea | 31% | 11/5 |
| Draw / Swansea | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Cardiff / Cardiff | 16% | 11/2 | |
| Draw / Draw | 12% | 7/1 | |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 58% | 8/11 |
| Over 10.5 | 47% | 11/10 | |
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 46% | 6/5 |
| Over 4.5 | 30% | 12/5 |
A fair price equals 1 divided by our chance.
The line-ups we predict
Swansea 4-3-3
- Vigouroux, Lawrence.GK
- Lissah, Filip.DEF
- Tymon, Josh.DEF
- Fulton, Jay.MID
- Seelt, Jenson.DEF
- Welsh, Stephen.DEF
- Franco, Gonçalo.MID
- Stamenic, Marko.MID
- Idah, Adam.FWD
- Opoku, Joseph.FWD
- Widell, Melker.FWD
They started Tue 3 Nov at Portsmouth.
Cardiff 4-1-4-1
- Trott, Nathan.GK
- Ng, Perry.DEF
- Scanlon, Calum.DEF
- Robertson, Alex.MID
- Fish, William.DEF
- Bagan, Joel.DEF
- Tanner, Ollie.MID
- Moylan, Jack.MID
- Salech, Yousef.FWD
- Colwill, Rubin.MID
- Willock, Chris.MID
These players started the match against West Ham on Wed 4 Nov.
Chances for correct scores
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
Sample sizes: Swansea, 15 games; Cardiff, 16 games.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected stand at 10.5; Swansea 4.5 and Cardiff 6.0, compared with 10.4 for the league.
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6 (league 3.7).
Latest form
Swansea City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Portsmouth | 1-3 | L |
| Sat 31 Oct | v Blackburn | 4-0 | W |
| Sat 24 Oct | at QPR | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v West Ham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Norwich | 2-1 | W |
Swansea is listed first in the scores.
Cardiff City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | v West Ham | 3-3 | D |
| Sat 31 Oct | at Wolves | 0-3 | L |
| Sat 24 Oct | v Birmingham | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2-2 | D |
| Tue 13 Oct | v Watford | 5-1 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1-2 | L |
Cardiff comes first in the scores listed.
Head to head
| Date | Competition | Result | Half time | Corners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 18 Jan 2025 | Championship | Cardiff 3-0 Swansea | 0-0 | 9 |
| Sun 25 Aug 2024 | Championship | Swansea 1-1 Cardiff | 1-0 | 7 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
Standings updated Thursday 5 November