Swansea City vs Blackburn Rovers prediction
With no bookmaker margin, averages across 6 UK bookmakers put Swansea 53%, draw 26% and Blackburn 21%.
What the model found
Swansea sit 4th in the Championship on 26 points from 14 games. Blackburn sit 14th on 18 points from 14 games, 8 points behind.
From their last 6, Swansea took 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Across their last 6, Blackburn recorded 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 42% of Swansea games this season, and 58% of them went over 2.5 goals. Blackburn's two figures are 75% and 75%. Expected goals per game: Swansea 1.51 created, 1.35 allowed; Blackburn 1.02 created, 1.75 allowed.
Our results show 4 meetings since August 2024: 3 Swansea wins, 1 Blackburn win and 0 draws. The most recent of those meetings, held Tuesday 20 January 2026, finished Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
The likeliest result in the model is a Swansea win at 50%, with the draw 27% and Blackburn 23%. It works from expected goals for Swansea of 1.55 and for Blackburn of 0.98. After taking out their margin, UK bookmakers put it at 53%, which means the market rates it higher than our own figure.
Our predicted score is Swansea City 1-0 Blackburn Rovers. One exact score stands above the rest at 12.8%, namely 1-1. Inside the result we favor, the likeliest score is 1-0.
Stats for Swansea v Blackburn
| Per game |  Swansea |  Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Corners won / conceded | 3.8 / 4.8 | 6.8 / 8.4 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.32 / 1.78 | 1.07 / 2.07 |
| Per game | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.33 | 1.58 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 42% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.3 / 4.7 | 6.2 / 6.1 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| xG for / against | 1.51 / 1.35 | 1.02 / 1.75 |
| Per game | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Corners won / conceded | 4.7 / 2.8 | 6.5 / 6.7 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| xG for / against | 1.68 / 1.09 | 0.62 / 2.22 |
| Per game | Swansea | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% |
| Corners won / conceded | 5.0 / 5.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 |
| Yellow cards a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
Best UK odds and fair prices
| Match result | Swansea win | 50% | evens | 4/5 Sky Bet | -10.5% |
| Draw | 27% | 11/4 | 11/4 Betway | +1.3% | |
| Blackburn win | 23% | 10/3 | 7/2 bet365 | +4.7% | |
| Double chance | Swansea or draw | 77% | 3/10 | ||
| Blackburn or draw | 50% | evens | |||
| Draw no bet | Swansea | 68% | 4/9 | ||
| Blackburn | 32% | 9/4 | |||
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | evens | ||
| No | 50% | evens | |||
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73% | 4/11 | ||
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 6/5 | 10/11 bet365 | -11.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 5/6 | 10/11 bet365 | +2.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 3/1 | |||
| Result and BTTS | Swansea and yes | 21% | 4/1 | ||
| Draw and yes | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Blackburn and yes | 11% | 17/2 | |||
| Result and goals | Swansea and over 2.5 | 29% | 5/2 | ||
| Blackburn and over 2.5 | 12% | 7/1 | |||
| Swansea and under 2.5 | 21% | 7/2 | |||
| Blackburn and under 2.5 | 11% | 8/1 | |||
| Half time / full time | Swansea / Swansea | 30% | 9/4 | ||
| Draw / Swansea | 18% | 9/2 | |||
| Draw / Draw | 16% | 5/1 | |||
| Blackburn / Blackburn | 13% | 13/2 | |||
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61% | 8/13 | ||
| Over 10.5 | 50% | evens | |||
| Cards | Over 3.5 | 47% | 11/10 | ||
| Over 4.5 | 31% | 9/4 |
A fair price = 1 divided by our chance. Prices come from football-data.co.uk. It covers match odds plus over/under 2.5 only, and edge marks where we have both numbers.
Who starts the match
Swansea 4-2-3-1
- Vigouroux, Lawrence.GK
- Lissah, Filip.DEF
- Tymon, Josh.DEF
- Eustáquio, Stephen.MID
- Cabango, Ben.DEF
- Welsh, Stephen.DEF
- Opoku, Joseph.MID
- Fulton, Jay.MID
- Stewart, Ross.FWD
- Widell, Melker.MID
- Ji-Sung, Eom.MID
Blackburn 4-2-3-1
- Balazs TothGK
- Alebiousu, Ryan.DEF
- Pickering, Harry.DEF
- Montgomery, Kristi.MID
- Atcheson, Tom.DEF
- McLoughlin, Sean.DEF
- Fevrier, Jayden.MID
- Baradji, Moussa.MID
- Gudjohnsen, Andri.FWD
- Cantwell, Todd.MID
- Afolayan, Oladapo.MID
We read the starting elevens from ESPN on Wednesday 4 November, 09:11.
Chances for each correct score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
When the goals come
For Swansea, 15 games; for Blackburn, 16 games. This season's ESPN match events show the goals scored in each minute.
Corners plus cards
- Corners expected: 10.8 (league 10.4; Swansea 5.1, Blackburn 5.7).
- Yellow cards expected: 3.6, against a league figure of 3.7, referee adjusted.
Form in recent matches
Swansea City
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | at QPR | 0-5 | L |
| Sat 17 Oct | v West Ham | 0-1 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Norwich | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Lincoln | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Burnley | 3-1 | W |
Swansea scores come first.
Blackburn Rovers
| Result | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct | v Wrexham | 2-0 | W |
| Sat 17 Oct | at West Brom | 2-3 | L |
| Tue 13 Oct | at Bristol City | 1-0 | W |
| Sat 10 Oct | v Cardiff | 2-1 | W |
| Sat 19 Sep | at Portsmouth | 2-2 | D |
| Sat 12 Sep | v Millwall | 3-1 | W |
Blackburn scores come first.
Head to head
| Tue 20 Jan 2026 | Championship | Swansea 3-1 Blackburn | 1-1 | 7 |
| Tue 30 Sep 2025 | Championship | Blackburn 1-2 Swansea | 1-1 | 10 |
| Sat 22 Feb 2025 | Championship | Swansea 3-0 Blackburn | 2-0 | 12 |
| Sat 19 Oct 2024 | Championship | Blackburn 1-0 Swansea | 1-0 | 11 |
Championship standings
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Birmingham City | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 4 | Swansea City | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | +15 | 24 |
| 12 |  Norwich City | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Blackburn Rovers | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
According to ESPN, the standings are as of Wednesday 4 November.